Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #16 (Final Update)

This is going to be a long one, so here's a tl;dr on benchmarks and safety ratings:

Top 64 benchmark: 3398 points
Lock for top 64: 43rd place and up (3555+ points)
Basically guaranteed: 45th place and up (3527+ points)
Very likely: 52nd place and up (3477+ points)
Likely: 60th place and up (3398+ points)

Top 128 benchmark: 3027 points
Lock for top 128: 89th place and up (3197+ points)
Basically guaranteed: 99th place and up (3139+ points)
Very likely: 106th place and up (3090+ points)
Likely: 119th place and up (3027+ points)


It's hard to believe that S5 qualifiers are nearly over; there's only 2 quals left!  This will be the last predictor update for S5 - I hope it's been helpful for you, or at the very least, entertaining.

A quick note about how the predictor is handling the end of the season - it assumes that anyone who has two races left races, will play in both of the remaining qualifiers.  So it might be a little optimistic about how much people will improve their scores.  It also doesn't account for people opting out of brackets.  That's why I've included projections all the way down to 150.

Here are the latest projected rankings, as of Qualifier #16:

1. Icola - 4014
2. Fmz - 3975
3. Sponge - 3949
4. MrMario7788 - 3941
5. Goomba - 3935
6. Marco - 3934
7. kariossa - 3863
8. WTHH - 3861
9. SeYsEy - 3840
10. Alexis - 3836
11. SariasObject - 3817
12. favio94 - 3816
13. JustSam - 3807
14. CheckRaise - 3800
15. Riley - 3800
16. Vodzilla - 3768
17. Elagatua - 3761
18. FantaTanked - 3759
19. ArthurOudini - 3758
20. mrmartin - 3751
21. YUSoEpic - 3743
22. Cfalcon - 3728
23. Narcottic - 3713
24. iceninetm - 3713
25. Skyward - 3711
26. Xef199221 - 3710
27. Melrose - 3701
28. Sora - 3698
29. Exodus - 3692
30. Flouflouche - 3692
31. Aosuna - 3686
32. Gogeta - 3661
33. Cokotier - 3649
34. WoodenBarrel - 3645
35. Ryuja - 3637
36. HaydeyPatatey - 3609
37. DylanMeeble - 3605
38. drooness - 3603
39. juwk - 3602
40. rockchalk - 3602
41. Hamsda - 3594
42. docheaps - 3594
43. Cola - 3585
44. Engel - 3565
45. Jaybone25 - 3555
46. gsk8 - 3555
47. Nopons - 3541
48. Kevin_818 - 3536
49. BrotinderDose - 3532
50. Yoyocanari - 3519
51. Kirox - 3494
52. Braaks - 3493
53. RyuuKane - 3490
54. sanzeau - 3479
55. z3ph1r - 3478
56. TomPouce - 3467
57. PhilippeTitou - 3460
58. alfalfa - 3458
59. Stuck_man - 3453
60. KCNecro - 3453
61. PurpleRupees - 3428
62. Gavaroni - 3426
63. DareDevinX - 3421
64. DgBarca - 3398
~~~
65. 2dos - 3389
66. Spikevegeta - 3387
67. Weasel2366 - 3382
68. TheAranaut - 3376
69. Oneshot013 - 3373
70. DubuDeccer - 3371
71. Challensois_ - 3369
72. Alaixo - 3368
73. T-RIS - 3365
74. Scarlet - 3361
75. DoitiEtok - 3361
76. TheLightswoord - 3350
77. Cloudike - 3322
78. zorro275 - 3319
79. VidyaJames - 3316
80. Markars - 3312
81. kirkq - 3311
82. MisterKarp - 3302
83. soli - 3299
84. kr3z - 3299
85. NewSoupVi - 3298
86. Chopthetank - 3275
87. Koari - 3275
88. Gyraxo - 3256
89. Alaszun - 3249
90. Bossage - 3247
91. Death King II - 3238
92. incoherent - 3224
93. KINGsamps0n - 3222
94. West0pher - 3221
95. Letsklay - 3218
96. Jimbo - 3214
97. emosoda - 3200
98. Chimpanreeve - 3197
99. xenoh - 3197
100. EarlWeird - 3194
101. Oximan - 3187
102. Chuckles501 - 3186
103. Tubamann - 3185
104. AlexanderHD - 3171
105. Flee - 3166
106. Willx48 - 3165
107. papy_grant - 3143
108. tanjo3 - 3142
109. Rafa - 3127
110. BruZZler - 3125
111. Aurelius - 3113
112. BearKofca - 3113
113. Menou - 3104
114. SlyRyD - 3100
115. Hellknight86 - 3097
116. azder - 3088
117. prieR57 - 3086
118. WeightyWords - 3083
119. Phant - 3082
120. DeadlyThunder - 3077
121. LeviBelvedere - 3068
122. Rahylia - 3054
123. baelnog - 3051
124. Cybrou - 3044
125. Jagger - 3043
126. Keipi3 - 3032
127. Bread-kun - 3028
128. The Specialize - 3027
~~~
129. MILLEKA__ - 3021
130. Egodev - 3018
131. Blueseangfh2 - 3006
132. Xuross - 3006
133. HasCoffee - 2999
134. Skolslink - 2999
135. Lefty - 2989
136. SDGShawn - 2974
137. UofCWildcat - 2973
138. Kydams - 2969
139. Digdig - 2960
140. jaxstronomy - 2957
141. xYoshi9100x - 2954
142. Aranha - 2951
143. Tjongejonge_ - 2951
144. Synii - 2951
145. ScorpiosFinalGambit - 2950
146. Spounsh - 2917
147. ACreativeUsername - 2916
148. TeaGrenadier - 2907
149. PandaCerise - 2895
150. barbu - 2894


Of the projected top 64, all but 2 (Stuck_man and PurpleRupees) are currently already in the top 64.  So the predictor is expecting that most of the movement between now and the end of quals will be shuffling amongst people who have already qualified.  But that doesn't mean there's not still room for people to break in.

Usually, I put the list of people who can make it into top 64 with an above-average score here.  But for this final update, I have three lists:

First, the people who can get into top 64 (3398+ points) if they perform above-average in their remaining race(s):

2dos
Weasel2366
Oneshot013
Scarlet
DoitiEtok
TheLightswoord
Markars
soli
kr3z


Second, the people who can get into top 64 (3398+ points) if they perform at the very top of their demonstrated skill range (i.e. repeat their current best score) in their remaining race(s):

Alaixo
T-RIS
zorro275
kirkq
NewSoupVi
Gyraxo
West0pher
Xopar*

*With only 3 actual finishes so far, and just 2 races to go, the predictor is expecting that Xopar won't actually end up with 5 non-zero scores, so his projected final score takes a significant hit, which is why the predictor has placed Xopar in this category (and not higher up).  However, the scores that he does have are generally good enough that he can make top 64 with just average scores in the remaining 2 races.


Finally, here are all of the remaining people that can mathematically still get into the top 64.  However, this will require some combination of them doing better than their current best score and/or everyone else underperforming (or just not playing) in the final two qualifiers:

Spikevegeta
TheAranaut
Challensois_
Willx48
Aurelius
Phant
MILLEKA__
Egodev
Xuross
HasCoffee
Kydams
Tjongejonge_
Spounsh
MikeKatz45


Finally, to round out the top 64 discussion, we have the safety ratings for people who are currently in the top 64 (i.e. pages 1 and 2 of the standings).  As noted above, all but 2 of the projected top 64 are currently in the top 64, so we expect that most people will be somewhere in these lists:

Lock for top 64: 43rd place and up (3555+ points)
Icola
Sponge
MrMario7788
Goomba
Marco
kariossa
SeYsEy
Alexis
SariasObject
Riley
favio94
JustSam
FantaTanked
ArthurOudini
mrmartin
WTHH
CheckRaise
YUSoEpic
Cfalcon
Xef199221
Melrose
Narcottic
Sora
Exodus
Skyward
Aosuna
Elagatua
Gogeta
Fmz
WoodenBarrel
Vodzilla
Flouflouche
HaydeyPatatey
Cokotier
drooness
juwk
rockchalk
Ryuja
docheaps
DylanMeeble
Cola
Jaybone25
gsk8

Basically guaranteed: 45th place and up (3527+ points)
Nopons
Hamsda

Very likely: 52nd place and up (3477+ points)
Yoyocanari
Engel
iceninetm
RyuuKane
BrotinderDose
Kevin_818
sanzeau

Likely: 60th place and up (3398+ points)
PhilippeTitou
z3ph1r
alfalfa
Braaks
TomPouce
Kirox
Gavaroni
DgBarca


Now, the updates on the top 128 for Challenge Cup.  In the projected top 128, all but 3 (Weasel2366, Tubamann, and Phant) are currently ranked 128th or better.  And just like the top 64, I've got the list of everyone who is outside of the projected top 128 but can still possibly make it in.  A * by someone's name means that it is also mathematically possible for them to get into the top 64.

People who can get into top 128 (3027+ points) if they perform above-average in their remaining race(s):

MILLEKA__*
Egodev*
Xuross*
HasCoffee*
Skolslink
Kydams*
Digdig
jaxstronomy
xYoshi9100x
Tjongejonge_*
Spounsh*


People who can get into top 128 (3027+ points) if they perform at the very top of their demonstrated skill range (i.e. repeat their current best score) in their remaining race(s):

Synii
TeaGrenadier
Aughoti
Xopar*
MikeKatz45*


People that can mathematically still get into the top 128:

Blueseangfh2
Lefty
SDGShawn
Spell
Squall27730
Kaede Rukawa
renata
Theumman
cheamo
ksinjah
rblopes
aston1988
Suigh
Soket
QueueSol0
NineWholeGrains
Vince_vi
GGKillian


Finally, I have the safety ratings for everyone who is currently in the top 128.  There are a number of people who are still in contention for the top 64 (denoted by a * next to their name), so it might be helpful to view those people as a lock/basically guaranteed/likely to be in a tournament, but which tournament is still up in the air:

Lock for top 128: 89th place and up (3197+ points)
DareDevinX*
KCNecro*
Spikevegeta*
TheAranaut*
DubuDeccer
Oneshot013*
T-RIS*
Challensois_*
Scarlet*
Alaixo*
2dos*
TheLightswoord*
Cloudike
VidyaJames
MisterKarp
Chopthetank
Stuck_man*
DoitiEtok*
zorro275*
Koari
Bossage
Alaszun
Death King II
KINGsamps0n
Letsklay
Jimbo
kirkq*
Markars*
xenoh

Basically guaranteed: 99th place and up (3139+ points)
emosoda
soli*
EarlWeird
Chimpanreeve
West0pher*
NewSoupVi*
Gyraxo*
AlexanderHD
tanjo3
Oximan

Very likely: 106th place and up (3090+ points)
Rafa
incoherent
papy_grant
BearKofca
BruZZler
Menou
Hellknight86

Likely: 119th place and up (3027+ points)
azder
WeightyWords
Flee
SlyRyD
LeviBelvedere
Chuckles501
prieR57
Willx48*
Aurelius*
baelnog
Cybrou
Jagger
Bread-kun


And that's a wrap for the crazy S5 predictor!  I've had a lot of fun looking at the numbers and seeing how things changed over time.  I'm really glad that the predictor actually got to see the light of day last year (see the Qual #6 paste for a little history of why I made this in the first place).  Thanks so much for putting up with all the update spam.

I think after all the dust is settled, I might look back at how the benchmarks changed over time (and how close they were to correct), as well as how good the predictor was at guessing peoples' final scores.  But I might not post it publicly, to cut down on the amount that I spam #s5-discussion, so feel free to DM me if you're interested in seeing that when it comes out.

Good luck to everyone as you compete in your final qualifiers, and I hope that everybody has a wonderful holiday season!

<3 winnie


Links to past pastes:
Qual #14: https://pastebin.com/MFjijaaM
Qual #12: https://pastebin.com/9BadM6uP
Qual #10: https://pastebin.com/NDaNSRJr
Qual #8: https://pastebin.com/3KZiMadd
Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv

S4 comparisons (so you can judge the accuracy of the prediction algorithm for yourself):
Projected benchmarks after each qualifier: https://pastebin.com/GQsh2qSu
Projected rank and score of the top 64 after each qualifier: http://bombch.us/DRr-