12/2/24-12/4/24 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

12/2-12/4/23 Update, day 647-649 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Belarus has discussed additional cooperation with China in what essentially is sanctions evasion.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has suspended the membership of Belarus, following the Belarusian rejection of firing the Belarusian head. The Belarusian head made statements about deportation of UA children to Belarus.

The UA ambassador to poland stated that protests at the border will not affect strategic relations, and urged the EU to take action to ensure the border was not blocked. UA media has pointed out one of the political groups supporting the blockades in Poland and recently slovakia, has RU ties.

There are approximately 2500 trucks currently in a holding pattern at the Polish border, 1100 are waiting at the Hungarian border, and 1000 trucks are waiting at the Slovakian border.

Given reports on former UA president Poroshenko being restricted from travelling to Hungary and Poland, the UA Rada has stated this is due to concerns of RU information ops using such meetings to generate propaganda.

18/23 drones were destroyed in an RU attack overnight targeting mostly southern and western Ukraine.

Due to bad weather, there were approximately 500 settlements depowered.

Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

Per reports following US Secretary of Defense meeting with UA Gen. Zaluzhny, Zaluzhny stated some 17 million rounds of artillery ammo and $350 billion USD worth of equipment and personnel would be necessary to fully liberate the country.

UA is reportedly producing 6 long range SPG "Boghdan" per month and is working to restock the supply of anti-air missiles. UA is also reportedly working on long range Neptune anti-ship missiles, coming on the heels of reports that UA has exhausted the meager supply of 20 ATACMS rockets already given. UA is reportedly significantly increasing the production of drones and EW jammers to the ZSU.

The new UA Medical commander, Anatoly Kazmirchuk, has been formally appointed. While Anatoly has stated he wishes to transition more towards NATO standards of medicine, specifically including: Digitization of communication and logistics, increased NATO level training for soldiers due to concerns of widespread inadequacies, and receiving more feedback from UA medical personnel.

Currently, there is reported to be some friction between UA president Zelensky and CIC Zaluzhny, although the specifics and scope are not clarified. The oft-repeated rumor is that Zaluzhny feels political considerations are winning out over strategic planning.

Following a poisoning attempt last week targeting numerous GUR officers and their families, including GUR head Budanov's wife, his wife is reported to be stable. Its suspected to be an Arsenic-derived poisoning.

Currently, some 2.6 million people in Ukraine are registered as internally displaced.

Currently, there is a decision making process regarding whether every Mig-31k jet taking off (a frequent event) should necessitate a country wide air alert, due to the potential for carrying the Khinzal hypersonic missile.

The UA air force has stated that F-16 and additional air defense systems are necessary to deal with the increased threat of RU glided bombs, which are reaching the level of 100 a day across the front. These 500 kg+ bombs now include cluster bombs, and have caused difficulties.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

UA sabotage groups representing themselves from the RDK (Russian Volunteer Legion) conducted a cross border raid into Belgorod oblast, killing an FSB Lt. Colonel. The RDK and other GUR-affiliated volunteer units have consistently had the greatest presence in cross-border ground operations.

RU recon groups have become more active along the Chernihiv border.

UA drone strikes targeted RU communications infrastructure in Belgorod oblast, as RU continues to fire artillery and launch some air strikes N of Kharkiv city along the border, near Kozacha Lopan and Vovchansk. RU drone strikes in Kharkiv oblast have targeted power infrastructure.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU forces continue to launch unsuccessful assaults from NE of Kupyansk, accompanied with artillery and airstrikes. RU has apparently also paid increased attention or concern to UA forces in Dvorichna across the river from the RU originating positions, as we've seen more RU FPV drone usage there. UA longer range FPV drones continue to target SPG's in this area.

RU has notably increased the volume of long range artillery fire towards the SE Kupyansk villages, potentially as a way to inhibit supplies being brought up via the E bank of the Oskil.

E of Kupyansk, the situation remains consistent around Ivanivka, although we're seeing more 10km + incursions of UA FPV drones, especially on MLRS platforms. Given that the Grad MLRS was only some 10km from the front line, less than half of its max range, it implies that either these MLRS were targeting positions closer to Kupyansk, or there are similar range issues with RU rocket artillery as we've seen with SPGs.

RU continued air and drone strikes to the W and SW of Kreminna, with limited gains towards the Zherebets river and Terny, as well as minimal gains in the forest SW of Kreminna. The situation otherwise seems stable, as UA forces have demonstrable ability to use FPV drones on the main highway out of Kreminna.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU forces have made meager gains to the NW of Bakhmut city towards Khromove, although the bulk of fighting is to the SW around Andriivka and Kliischivka.

RU artillery has heavily targeted the hills overlooking kliischiivka, and RU forces have committed to increased defenses along the river E of the town. Currently, RU seems unable to successfully launch a committed mechanized assault along the main road into Kliischivka as they encounter artillery and mines.

The frozen terrain and cold conditions in this region is making infantry operations more challenging.


Avdiivka:

UA drones continue to operate deep behind the RU lines, with a number of FPV drone attacks NE of Avdiivka, in Verkhnotoretske.

NW of Avdiivka, RU forces have made small progress across the fields and towards Stepove, taking seemingly heavy losses in manpower and equipment. The front line seems less defined here, as UA snipers have been seen operating from more forward positions.

The bulk of RU combat operations here continue to be infantry focused, although there have been noted heavy armored assaults with minesweepers, interdicted by drones and artillery. Footage of two UA soldiers being executed while attempting to surrender arose from this area.

RU recon operations attempting to cross the reservoir N of Avdiivka's industrial area were apparently interdicted by drones.

As RU continues to heavily bomb avdiivka with artillery and glide bombs, there has been a reduction in RU attempts to push into the heavily defended industrial plants to the North.

RU forces attempted to utilize an ammo-carrying robotic platform in assaults to the SE of Avdiivka, but it was destroyed.

To the SW of Avdiivka, the situation remains broadly unchanged, with less RU pressure here then the main thrust up north.

Currently there remains about 2.5 months of food supplies in the city. All children have been evacuated.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

UA forces appear to have been fully pushed out of the long-rubbelized remains of Marinka, to the SW of Donetsk city. This is the town which drone footage showed as essentially leveled earlier this year, and RU forces now likely have to contend with more defensible positions outside the city rather then fighting among the rubble inside it.

RU airstrikes to the SW of Marinka have also targeted UA supply routes and villages.

UA drone strikes have targeted RU oil depots in Luhansk overnight, with positive effect.

There is a shortage of children and infant vaccines in Luhansk, especially for Tuberculosis which has a several month backlog.



Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

There has been heavy RU drone attacks along the southern front, predominantly attacking villages and supply lines with Shaheds rather then urban centers. Otherwise, the front lines remain fairly stagnant.

RU continues to consistently shell and launch drones from the area around the Enerhodar NPP. There was another blackout of the ZNPP, and the first complete blackout since May of this year.

RU forces appeared to have targeted and destroyed a UA decoy jet near Kryvi Rih, using a long range Lancet model.

Ru has increased nationalization attempts of civilians, now stating that unless the owners of a property register their home and occupants with RU occupation forces, they may be evicted and the property declared "abandoned".


Kherson:

RU continues to heavily shell Kherson city and the roads around it, targeting schools and libraries. Shellings consistently exceed over 40/day in the city itself.

In the Dnipro river, heavy RU airstrikes and drone recon have hindered operations in the delta region.

Across the river, UA forces continue efforts to expand their reach in Krynky, although they are hindered by massive RU airstrikes. RU forces in this region appear to be stretched thin on manpower and resources on the ground, given some of the frankenstein vehicles weve seen, including anti-ship missiles strapped to the back of trucks.

UA strikes continue deep into the RU rear lines, targeting long range MLRS and artillery systems here, as well as deeper air defense systems.

RU has targeted the UA naval forces near the Kinburn peninsula, in Ochakiv, with artillery.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

Following stormy weather, there have been more reports of mines washing ashore in the Odesa region.

RU appears to have restored some of its naval barriers around Sevastopol, following destruction in the recent storms.

Per the UA Navy, RU is likely stockpiling Kalibr missiles due to less of them being fired as of late.


Russia:

RU declared LGBT groups as "extremist" and there have been observed raids of noted gay bars and other meeting spaces.

There have been more reports of recruitment efforts targeting RU citizens in the western cities such as St. Petersburg, in contrast to prior attempts mainly focusing on eastern RU minorities.

There are apparent mixed feelings regarding increasing the length of RU conscript service from 1 to 2 years, and loosening medical requirements.

Putin signed a decree increasing the number of servicemen in the RU Armed Forces by almost 170,000, setting the total strength at 1.32 million servicemembers.

General:

UA forces conducted 12 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 45air strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

770x soldiers (Total 332,810)
5x APC
5x Tank
0x Air defense
12x Artillery (0xMLRS)
19x vehicles
22x UAV

Over the last week, UA destroyed:

7,210 soldiers
62 tanks
117 APC
75 artillery
5 air defense
144 vehicles
94 UAV
(total of 534 pieces of equipment).


Overseas:

Slovenia will provide Ukraine with 1.5 million euros for demining.

Germany completed the training of 70 additional UA soldiers working on the Patriot ADA system. Rheinmetall plans to start producing APC's (the Fuchs and Lynx) in Ukraine within 6 months of finalizing contracts.

Per the UN, 10 million Ukrainians have received humanitarian aid this year. 7.2 million were given medical care, 5.8 million received water and hygiene products, and 4.1 received food and shelter.

The UK has reportedly supplied UA with Martlet guided missiles, designed to defend against drones. UA psychologists have completed training in the UK, to deal with the large presence of psychological stressors among UA civilians and soldiers.

The US has stated that allocated funds for UA aid have run out for the year, and without renewal in Congress, UA will have difficulties over the next year.

This week, the USA and UA will hold a conference on arms production.

The EU rejected Hungary President Orban's statements that Ukraine shouldn't be considered for EU membership negotiations.