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k3v227

Yellow Ice Beam

k3v227
Apr 24th, 2018
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  1. INFO
  2. - Loses about 7.5s on average, and about 8s in the best case.
  3. - Mitigates 15.0% risk for Lance & Champ with 15DV spec.
  4. - Mitigates 17.5% risk for Lance & Champ with 14DV spec.
  5. - Mitigates 14.5% risk for Lance & Champ with 13DV spec.
  6.  
  7. Conclusion: Blizzard strats are worth it for a 50/30 risk threshold (17% for 8.2s). However the point of this paste is to show that Ice Beam could be a closer play than previously thought, and might be preferred if you're on a good enough run. The strongest argument in favor of this strat seems to be for 14DV Special. On a related note, the current Iceless route does not seem to be viable (mostly due to lost turns on average). I'm content enough with Blizzard's risk/reward and now how Ice Beam competes with it to abandon Iceless indefinitely.
  8.  
  9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  10.  
  11. ROCK TUNNEL
  12. - DON'T get Max Ether.
  13.  
  14. CELADON
  15. - Buy 10 X Accuracy, 4 X Speed, 4 X Attack, 5 X Special.
  16. - Fresh Water + Soda Pop -> Ice Beam + Rock Slide -> Fresh Water.
  17. - Poke Doll.
  18. - Drill, 10 Super Repels, 4 Super Potions.
  19. - Fly Menu:
  20. > Swap slot 2 with Super Repels -> teach Fly, teach Horn Drill over Horn Attack.
  21. > Use Super Repel, swap slot 3 with X Acc, teach Rock Slide over Bubblebeam.
  22. > Fly to Lavender.
  23.  
  24. TOWER
  25. - Rival: X Acc + Drill x5.
  26. - Gastlies: RS.
  27. - Get Both Elixirs.
  28. - Poke Doll menu: Swap slot 4 with X Speeds -> Use Poke Doll.
  29. - Rocket: X Acc + Drill x3.
  30. - Center in Celadon.
  31.  
  32. SILPH
  33. - Lift to 10F.
  34. - Machoke: X Acc + Drill.
  35. - Get (in order) Candy + EQ + Carbos.
  36. - Teach EQ: Swap slot 6 with X Attack, Teach Earthquake over Rock Slide, Swap slot 5 with Rare Candy, Use Carbos.
  37. - Arbok: EQ.
  38. - Get Key -> Rare Candy x2.
  39. - Silph Rival: X Acc + Drill x3, EQ, Drill.
  40. - Get Lapras.
  41. - Team Rocket: EQ x3.
  42. - Giovanni: X Atk + EQ x4.
  43.  
  44. SAFARI
  45. - Snorlax Menu: Super Repel, use Elixir #1, Swap slot 7 with X Special, Heal, use Poke Flute.
  46. - Get Rare Candy.
  47. - NO CARBOS.
  48. - Get Full Restore.
  49. - Get Teeth and Surf.
  50.  
  51. SABRINA
  52. - Sabrina: X Acc, X Spd, EQ x2, Drill.
  53.  
  54. KOGA
  55. - Juggler 1: EQ + Thrash.
  56. - Juggler 2: EQ x2 + TB.
  57. - Koga: X Acc, X Spd, Drill x4.
  58. - Get Strength.
  59.  
  60. MANSION
  61. - Super Repel, (heal), swap Ice Beam with Rare Candy, teach Strength + Surf to Lapras, teach Ice Beam over Thrash.
  62. - Basement: use Super Repel.
  63. - Get BOTH candies.
  64. - Get key -> dig.
  65.  
  66. BLAINE
  67. - X Atk + EQ x3.
  68. > Arcanine: Earthquake (31/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 82.8526%)
  69. > Finish with Lapras + surf if you die.
  70.  
  71. IF YOU DIE: Center after Blaine, candy x1 + Elixir after Blackbelt, candy to L51 after bruno, xspc champ.
  72.  
  73. ERIKA
  74. - Beauty: IB.
  75. - Erika: IB x3.
  76.  
  77. GIOVANNI
  78. - Rhyorn: IB.
  79. - Elixir #2 + Rare Candy x1.
  80. - Blackbelt: X Atk + EQ x3.
  81. > Leer = IB Machop.
  82. - Giovanni: X Spd + EQ, X Acc*** + Drill x4.
  83. > X Acc if Dugtrio uses Dig.
  84.  
  85. VIRIDIAN RIVAL
  86. - X Spc + IB, IB, TB, EQ x3.
  87. > Sandslash Ranges Below (crtl+f: sranges)
  88.  
  89. ELITE 4
  90. - Center or Max Ether.
  91. - Lorelei: X Acc + Drill x5.
  92. - Elixir #3.
  93. - Bruno: IB, X Acc + Drill, Drill, IB, Drill.
  94. - Rare Candy x2.
  95. - Agatha: EQ, X Spc + IB, EQ, EQ, EQ.
  96. > Golbat: Ice Beam (24/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 67.8486%)
  97. - Heal.
  98. - Lance: X Spc + TB, X Spc*** + IB x4.
  99. > 11/15: Always Set up on 1st Dragonair.
  100. > 10/14: 2nd Dragonair on 48 or less HP.
  101. > 9/13: 2nd Dragonair on 47 or less HP.
  102. - Heal.
  103. - Champ: X Spc + IB, EQ, X Acc + Drill, EQ, Drill, EQ.
  104.  
  105. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  106.  
  107. sranges
  108.  
  109. Viridian Rival Sandslash (12.5% crit): Slash, Swift, or Fury Swipes.
  110. - Fury Swipes (80% Accuracy): 2-5 times per use; 37.5% hit 2 times, 37.5% hit 3 times, 12.5% hit 4 times, and 12.5% hit 5 times.
  111.  
  112. MOVE DEF DVs DAMAGE
  113.  
  114. Slash 11 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1)
  115. Crit: 51-61 (rolls: 51x1, 52x4, 53x4, 54x4, 55x5, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x1)
  116. 10 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1)
  117. Crit: 52-62 (rolls: 52x1, 53x5, 54x4, 55x4, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x4, 62x1)
  118. 9 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1)
  119. Crit: 52-62 (rolls: 52x1, 53x5, 54x4, 55x4, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x4, 62x1)
  120.  
  121. Swift 11 Normal: 18-22 (rolls: 18x4, 19x11, 20x12, 21x11, 22x1)
  122. Crit: 45-53 (rolls: 45x5, 46x5, 47x4, 48x5, 49x5, 50x5, 51x5, 52x4, 53x1)
  123. 10 Normal: 19-23 (rolls: 19x5, 20x11, 21x11, 22x11, 23x1)
  124. Crit: 45-53 (rolls: 45x5, 46x5, 47x4, 48x5, 49x5, 50x5, 51x5, 52x4, 53x1)
  125. 9 Normal: 19-23 (rolls: 19x5, 20x11, 21x11, 22x11, 23x1)
  126. Crit: 45-54 (rolls: 45x1, 46x4, 47x5, 48x5, 49x5, 50x4, 51x5, 52x5, 53x4, 54x1)
  127.  
  128. Fury Swipes 11 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1)
  129. Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1)
  130. 10 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1)
  131. Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1)
  132. 9 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1)
  133. Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1)
  134.  
  135. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  136.  
  137. Celadon Shopping: $26424
  138.  
  139. -> -14650 -> 11774
  140. -> -700 -> 11074
  141. -> -1000 -> 10074
  142. -> -2000 -> 8074
  143. -> -5000 -> 3074
  144. -> -2800 -> 224
  145.  
  146. X ATTACKS: 4
  147. X SPEEDS: 4
  148. X SPECIALS: 5
  149. X ACCURACYS: 10
  150. X item cost: 14650
  151.  
  152. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  153.  
  154. TIME CALCULATION
  155.  
  156. Less 1hko text (0.4s): 0.4s save
  157. - Viridian Rival (1) = 1 total
  158.  
  159. More Crit Text on average (0.43s): 1 * 0.43 * 0.164 = 0.1s lose
  160. - Viridian Rival (1) = 1 total
  161.  
  162. Less flash animation (0.92s): 0.92 + 1.3s for IB on champ = 2.4 save
  163. - Erika (2), Blackbelt (-2.8), Lance (2) = 1.2 total
  164.  
  165. More super effective text (0.56s): 1.7s lose
  166. - Viridian Rival (1), lance (2) = 3
  167.  
  168. Average Saved Turns: 0.19 + 0.1 + 0.19 + 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.58 save average.
  169. - erika (0.19), Rhyhorn (0.1), Blackbelt (0.19), viridian rival (0.1), Bruno (0.1), Agatha (-0.2), Lance (0.1).
  170.  
  171. Animation off red bar Animation on red bar
  172. Blizz 53 48 211 206
  173. IB 53 48 133 128
  174.  
  175. Ice beam timing (Assume getting rock slide):
  176. - get fresh water = 3.9s
  177. - acquire IB = 8.5s
  178. - acquire Blizzard = 2s
  179. - Net: -10.4s
  180.  
  181.  
  182. PROS Average Best
  183. - Animations -2.4 -3.1
  184. - Less OHKO Text -0.3 -0.4
  185. - Turns Saved -3.5 -0.0
  186. - Better Mansion Menu -1.5 -1.5
  187. TOTAL -7.7 -5.0
  188.  
  189. CONS Average Best
  190. - Get Ice Beam +10.4 +10.4
  191. - More SE Text +1.7 +1.7
  192. - Heal for Viridian Rival +2.0 +0.0
  193. - Hidden Mansion Candy +1.0 +1.0
  194. TOTAL +15.1 +13.1
  195.  
  196. NET +7.4s +8.1s
  197.  
  198. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  199.  
  200. WIN % FOR LANCE & CHAMP
  201.  
  202. 15dv spec
  203. - NORMAL: 0.70446 * 0.78271484375 = 0.551391298828125
  204. - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.804154 * 0.87158203125 = 0.7008861767578125
  205. - DIFFERENCE: 0.1494948779296875
  206.  
  207. 14dv spec
  208. - NORMAL: 0.656779 * 0.78271484375 = 0.51407067236328125
  209. - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.790342 * 0.87158203125 = 0.6888478857421875
  210. - DIFFERENCE: 0.17477721337890625
  211.  
  212. 13dv spec
  213. - NORMAL: 0.703968 * 0.78271484375 = 0.551006203125
  214. - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.794568 * 0.87158203125 = 0.69253119140625
  215. - DIFFERENCE: 0.14152498828125
  216.  
  217. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  218.  
  219. SIMULATIONS
  220.  
  221. NORMAL LANCE (15dv spec)
  222. Num Simulations: 1000000
  223. nidoking died 29.554000%
  224.  
  225. ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 15dv spec)
  226. Num Simulations: 1000000
  227. nidoking died 19.584600%
  228.  
  229. NORMAL LANCE (14dv spec)
  230. Num Simulations: 1000000
  231. nidoking died 34.322100%
  232.  
  233. ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 14dv spec) - 2nd dragonair on 48 or less HP.
  234. Num Simulations: 500000
  235. nidoking died 20.965800%
  236.  
  237. NORMAL LANCE (13dv spec)
  238. Num Simulations: 1000000
  239. nidoking died 29.603200%
  240.  
  241. ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 13dv spec) - 2nd dragonair on 47 or less HP.
  242. Num Simulations: 500000
  243. nidoking died 20.543200%
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