11/22-11/27/22 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

11.22-11.27.22 Update, day 272-277 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

Despite the presence of RU fighters, bombers, and drone launching sites in Belarus, there has been no observed threat from Belarusian or RU forces here.

Per the UA government, there is no formation of RU or Belarusian offensive groups, and in fact RU troops are being rotated out of Belarus towards areas in Ukraine such as Donetsk and Luhansk. The UA government has come out and stated that the rumors of another RU assault from Belarus towards Kyiv are an information warfare campaign to sow panic.

A group of Pakistani migrants were dumped on the Belarusian/Ukrainian border by Belarusian border guards, as part of an artificially created migration crisis.

Lukashenko reiterated that Belarusian troops would not participate in offensive ground operations. It appears they have been broadly supplying, feeding, and sheltering RU conscripts who were being trained.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):

On November 23rd, RU forces launched another mass missile salvo across Central and W Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure with some 70 missiles launched. Approximately 80% were successfully intercepted, with the majority being air-launched cruise missiles augmented with some drone strikes.

During that strike, a number of regions were faced with blackouts, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Kharkiv. The UA rail service managed to get the bulk of operations up and running by evening on the 24th, with some delays.

At time of the shelling, some 80% of Kyiv city was without power and water. Air raid alerts will be announced with mobile loudspeakers in areas without power.

Currently, a large quantity of Kyiv houses have had power and water service broadly restored at this point. There are some issues with water pressure still recorded, especially in higher elevation buildings. In other affected regions, power has been broadly restored, although rolling blackouts are ongoing on schedules.

Per the Kyiv Mayor, residents of the capital can  expect "the worst winter since the Second World War." and emphasized the need for preparation . In the worst case scenario, he explained "if there was a widespread power outage and the temperature was even colder, then part of the city will have to be evacuated".

More then 430 heating points, termed "points of invulnerability" have been installed in Kyiv and about 100 more are due to be deployed. There is a bit of a political brouhaha in Kyiv as allegedly a number of these heating areas are not living up to the promised standards. Zelensky mentioned the central government is looking into this.

Citizens in Kyiv are urged not to drive during heavy snowfall which is anticipated, and given potential issues with power supply and the increased rate of accidents, to wear high visibility clothing if out at night.

Boris Johnson was awarded the title of Honorary citizen of Kyiv, per the city council.

There are reports that RU is preparing another massive salvo of strikes in the coming days, and Zelensky has urged citizens to buckle down.

American astronaut and United24 Ambassador Scott Kelly visted a childrens hospital in Kyiv. He presented a wounded girl with a Nasa medallion which had been in space, and spoke about his experiences with patients there. He has raised over 500k USD thus far, and is working to raise 1.25 million USD for a system to engage IRGC provided drones.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

RU forces continue to sporadically shell across the border with no other major change or threat of assault.

Kharkiv continues to be struck by RU missiles, and there has been a noted increase in RU suicide drone strikes immediately across the border into the N Kharkiv region. S-300 missile strikes continue to target areas along the Kharkiv-Kupyansk corridor.

In Shebekino, in the Belgorod region of Russia, a part of the city lost water and power supply. The local authorities said that it happened as a result of shelling on the outskirts hitting a power line.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU and UA forces continue to skirmish along the Kupyansk/Svatove highway, with noted fighting around Kuzemivka to the NW of Svatove, as well as attempts towards Kolomyichykha, both towns which would allow for a springboard towards Svatove city proper.

In Svatove proper, UA artillery continues to strike RU positions, as well as apparent long range MLRS artillery striking RU fortifications. On the 25th, a large RU barracks was destroyed by missile strikes.

South of Svatove, UA artillery has ranged fully across the P-66 highway in some cases, potentially indicating that RU forces are either no longer using the highway or UA forces are further in control of the area.

UA forces further around Ploschanka continue to fight with RU troops, and artillery seems to indicate that UA troops are in some capacity close to that town. Ploschanka would serve as an effective way to cut off the Kreminna/Svatove highway and allow for another flank towards either.


Siversk/Lysychansk.

There is no major change around Siversk/Lysychansk, with RU attempts towards the NE,E, and SE fronts. It appears that more RU forces have been redeployed here from Kherson.


Bakhmut:

In Soledar, RU forces continue to skirmish with UA troops and shelling continues along the major line of contact.

Between Soledar and Bakhmut, RU forces have seized territory up to the highway in the NE corner of Bakhmut city. UA shelling is heavily focused on the intersection near Pridhorodne, where RU attempts to attack here at night have been interdicted by drones with thermal capabilities. This area is broadly fields, so it seems unlikely that RU forces have major control until such point as they can either push further into the residential area of Bakhmut, or further in to the suburban village of Pidhorodne.

There appears to be increased RU pressure towards E Bakhmut, with UA forces pulling back from the intersection outside of town towards their established defenses in the industrial area. To the SE of Bakhmut, RU forces are also apparently on attack, although they are still fighting outside the residential area in a small family farm and a larger mining operation.

To the S of Bakhmut, the situation is at its hardest along the whole battlefield. With snow and mud in trenches across a no-mans-land of shattered trees and shell craters, the parallels to WW1 are undeniable. RU forces fluctuate in their intensity of attacks here, with some days being much worse then others. The artillery however, remains constant.

Reportedly, RU forces use Wagner troops to constantly scout for weaknesses in the UA lines, despite high causalities. Should they find one, then a large grouping is tasked to attempt a breakthrough. Thus far, they have been held back with very high losses on both sides.

Otherwise to the SW of Bakhmut city along the highway, RU forces have made gains W from the highway in an apparent attempt to flank around and encircle Bakhmut city. The river here blocks them broadly, but the UA strong point of Kurdyumivka along the river is very much under assault.

Per a UA reporter in Bakhmut, UA forces suffered some 500 casualties in the last 48 hours.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU forces continue to strike around the area of Avdiivka, with very heavy shelling ongoing. However, they thus far appear unable to manifestly push through Vodyane or Optyne in attempts to cross the river here and flank Aviivka.

RU casualties in this area are overwhelming local hospitals, who have to transport casualties further back from the lines or place them in abhorrent conditions for medical recovery. RU mortality rates for casualities are ticking up due to issues with supplies of medical equipment and trained personnel.


Mariupol (7):

Prisoner exchanges continue to be undertaken, with another 14 UA soldiers returned. The devastation in Mariupol is taking a toll on the civilians living there as Russians get precedence for shelter, water, and electricity.

An RU musician was filmed creating a music video in the ruins of the Mariupol theater, where several hundred people were killed as RU bombers leveled the marked shelter around them.

A car bomb in Mariupol killed a local occupation administration official.

Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):

RU forces fired missiles into railway infrastructure near Kryvi Rih, badly damaging it.

RU forces appear to have been broadly mauled around Vuhledar and Pavlivka, where UA artillery fire is increasingly pushing further back from Vuhledar city and into SE Pavlivka. It appears that the RU plan of rushing people here in untrained assaults for political purposes around the retreat from Kherson, has gone very poorly indeed.

UA shelling continues to range into the RU supply lines for this offensive here, a considerable way.

RU forces continue to mine areas around the ZNPP, and there is speculation of an RU withdrawal from the region per the UA Energy company Energatom. However, RU forces still maintain a sizable contingent inside the power plant currently.

RU and UA continue to trade fire from Nikopol and Enerhodar. There have been deeper UA strikes towards Melitopol



Kherson (9)

UA forces in the Kherson region are still accounting for abandoned RU gear, and are jokingly calling it "Lend-lease 2.0". This includes one of Russia's most modern tanks, the T80-BVM, and a plethora of other tanks. There is also a considerable helping of damaged and immobilized vehicles which can be scavenged for parts.

RU forces looted almost all of Snihurivka during the evacuation, and destroyed considerable infrastructure in their retreat.

UA forces continue to shell across the Dnipro river with RU forces, which are broadly establishing a more permanent defense here. It appears that RU forces are concerned about UA crossing over the Dnipro, and there is a quantity of RU forces arranged blocking off the mainland from the Kinburn peninsula.

An RU command post was destroyed near Hola Prystan.

RU shelling of Kherson city has increased notably, as has Chornobaika, but power is beginning to be restored across the city.

Regarding the Kinburn peninsula, the situation remains unclear- UA has publicly stated that operations are ongoing, but that silence is imperative to further success. Its unclear if UA forces retain control of areas on the peninsula itself, although UA shelling would indicate something is going on. RU shelling appears broadly focused towards Ochakiv.

There were a series of UA missile strikes towards Skadovsk, where a concentration of RU troops is known to be located.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):

RU is reportedly leery about having their ships venture further into the black sea recently, due to both storms and the threat of UA kamikaze naval drones.

The US ambassador to Ukraine arrived in Odesa to comment and draw attention to the Black Sea Grain initiative.

77 ships are waiting in line for inspection in Turkey, the ports of Odesa are operating at up to 50% of capacity.

UA confirmed that IRGC trainers, likely Qods force, were killed in S Kherson/Crimea when their base was struck. This echoes statements made by western countries before. Should there be positive identification of dead IRGC personnel actively on UA territory, it will likely serve as a potent diplomatic reason for increased pressure and sanctions on the Islamic Republic.


General:

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

600x soldiers (Total 87,310)
8x APC
4x tanks
1x Artillery (0x MLRS)
6x vehicles
1x UAV

The UA Satellite purchased by the Sergey Prytula foundation has revealed around 2600 pieces of RU military equipment and 150 RU troop bases.

In Latvia on the border with Estonia, a bus carrying UA military personnel was hit by a truck, killing the driver. Its unclear why the UA military was in Estonia, but its suspected to be part of training missions.

The UK will hand over some Sea King helicopters to UA, following training of 10 crews. These are the first NATO-made helicopters known to be supplied, and represent an increased interoperability with NATO equipment. They are designed for anti-submarine and naval warfare, but given the range out to the Black Sea Fleet, may not be used for that purpose.

Per the NYT, some western allies are running out of reserves of ammo and weaponry to be provided to Ukraine, if they wish to keep their own levels of readiness.

Thus far in november, there have been 250% more cases levied for engaging in prostitution in Moscow then in the preceding 10 months combined. Allegedly, a heavy amount of raids are ongoing, and there is speculation that the increase is to try and curb RU mobiki behavior off base.

In Volgograd, Russia, a story of domestic abuse is beginning to make the rounds. A RU man who was tremendously physically abusive to his common-law wife for about a decade (whenever he was out of prison), and got away with it despite considerable evidence of incredible violence, was stabbed to death with a scissor when he tried to attack her with them. She is now being held for murder, and the case is shining a light on RU woeful response to domestic violence, as the woman had reported multiple times before to the local courts that she was in fear for her and her childrens life.

On November 17, representatives of Russia and Ukraine met in Abu Dhabi for talks on resuming the export of Russian ammonia through the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline, which was halted by the start of the Russian invasion. This was done on UA terms, who are proposing an "all-for-all" prisoner exchange. Some 2.5 million tons of liquid ammonia are run through this pipeline, the longest ammonia pipeline in the world coming from the largest ammonia producer. Putin is publicly somewhat amenable to the idea.

There are reports that RU is running a pressure campaign in order to persuade foreign students in Russia to enlist in the military forces. Nigerian students specifically are being targeted, and there is evidence of Nigerian nationals death in Ukraine fighting on RU orders.

Putin held an alleged meeting with mothers of RU soldiers, and stated that it was better if their sons served in Ukraine rather then succumbing to alcoholism. It was later discovered that the so-called concerned mothers were politcal allies of the United Russia party, and a number of conscripts mother's were shut out and excluded.

Following an investigation by Bellingcat and Insider.ru, it appears that a Russian potential honeypot operation was uncovered in Sweden. Specifically, a married couple was arrested for espionage undertaken since 2013, and their supposed daughter (the family's authenticity is in question) began a relationship with a senior figure in the Swedish Intelligence service, MUST. The daughter has not been detained at this time. Additionally, a pair of Swedish nationals were charged with supplying confidential information to the Russian GRU, as they worked in the MUST intel service.

The largest oil refinery in Siberia caught fire, and the situation is being examined by RU authorities.

Per RU investigative media, RU is prepared to have over 100k soldiers killed by spring of next year, and plans to replace them with conscripts per FSB sources. Given the heavy losses already, the 100k dead figure may arrive much sooner then that.

Prigozhin offered to supply a blood-stained sledgehammer to the EU parliament following discussions of recognizing the Wagner group as a terrorist organization,  in reference to a few executions carried out with sledgehammers.

Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign a draft declaration of the CSTO Collective Security Council during the CSTO summit in Yerevan, which bodes poorly for the future of Russias NATO analogue.

In the US, GOP representatives continue to discuss increased accountability for western aid to Ukraine. Currently, there is a former US 1-star general in Kyiv working in close conjunction with the UA defense minister. General Harmon was responsible for all US army weapons transfers before, and has extensive expertise.

Additionally, the aid supplied to Ukraine (of which some 20 Billion USD is actually paying for US companies to restock existing supplies) accounts for about 5.6% of the total US defense budget. With RU casualty estimates exceeding 200k, and about 1/2 of the standing RU military degraded, this seems like a pretty good return on investment given that roughly 100-150 billion USD a year went into activities that were in response to RU military projection.