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gunboat with EOG expectation 4 (France's EOG notes)

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Feb 10th, 2021
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  1. This is unedited from the slack thread where I kept track of my notes on the game. Any rude statements are made from an emotional basis, not from ill intent, and are probably wrong. I wrote this as semi-stream of consciousness so I didn't want to edit my feelings as they influence my decision making.
  2.  
  3. A few notes plucked from these ramblings:
  4. - Germany should not have bounced Sweden in Fall 1901, given how England and France (me) opened
  5. - As France, I've tried sending the army through to Tyrolia when Italy doesn't bounce me in Piedmont in Spring 1901. It's never really worked out. I think I might just hold in PIE or move back to MAR in the future.
  6. - By Fall 1902, I was already thinking about switching sides to help Germany against England, but my army being in Bohemia made that much harder.
  7.  
  8. -------------------------------------
  9.  
  10. gunboat with EOG expectation 4 (my game!):
  11. 28 replies
  12.  
  13. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  14. Drew France :flag-fr:
  15.  
  16. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  17. So. I’m not seeing Germanys go to Burgundy these days. I’m seeing a lot of Ruhr because France is opening with support into BUR, to then send it to cover MAR against the guaranteed Italian opening there.
  18. Went off to double check who is in this 4th game and it looks like high level people, so I expect the move to PIE. So I’m going to try and bounce it!
  19. MAR -> PIE
  20. PAR -> PIC
  21. BRE -> MAO
  22. If England goes to the Channel, I want PIC to be flexible and guard BRE. Hopefully I bounce in PIE and I get SPA for free, and cover BRE while picking up POR.
  23. It’s possible that England doesn’t bounce me in BRE, if that happens, it allows for a possible E/F. If they do, then I build a fleet there.
  24.  
  25. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  26. -------------------------
  27. A01:
  28. Fucking christ. Really? Doesn’t bounce PIE? And no move to the channel? Well I can’t really be mad about no Channel…
  29. There’s not really a chance to attack Italy early, right? I think not. It would require building in MAR which leaves myself wide open to E and G. I would rather continue on to TYR and harass people from there.
  30. So I’ll take POR and bounce in BEL, unless England really wants to commit to our alliance and supports me in.
  31.  
  32. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  33. -----------------
  34. W01:
  35. Wow. I love being courted :heart_eyes:
  36. Turkey is fully committed to the Med. Germany bounced Russia for some reason??? Not sure why. Russia has a hard choice about where to build, I think I recommend the south? But taking RUM with the fleet means more of an A/R vibe. But they supported themselves into GAL? Would be interested in the reasoning for this one….but I guess moving back into BLA is probably free with Turkey in the Med?
  37. With a strong anti-Italy opening from Turkey, I don’t think I should go after Italy. Yes, I said this in the fall when deciding about the POR vs. SPA move. I’m just confirming it here. The problem is, what do I build then?
  38. Given the Italian opening, I’m not super worried about them coming after me. So I think I can afford to build F MAR, to signal E/F. But will that lose me BEL?
  39. Honestly, that’s fine. England seems very committed to me. Germany sees me in TYR. I think I should commit to the E/F.
  40. F MAR, A PAR, and F MAR will focus on SPA replacement.
  41.  
  42. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  43. --------------
  44. S02:
  45. I’ve accepted the E/F. Germany was smart and build F KIE. Russia built an army in the north which is interesting. Turkey built another fleet in the south, so I don’t want to interfere with Italy too much and let Turkey out of the box.
  46. POR -> MAO is obvious. MAR -> SPA is fine? if slow. TYR should keep heading towards SIL, and Munich is going to bounce BUR this turn anyway.
  47. POR -> MAO
  48. MAR -> SPA
  49. PAR -> BUR
  50. BEL support PAR -> BUR and hope for English support hold
  51. TYR -> BOH
  52.  
  53. 1 month ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  54. ------------
  55. A02:
  56. I'm back in this awful situation. BOH is useless, SIL is better but to what end? Committing to the war against Germany might not be smart any more, seeing as England will benefit the most in the short term. I think in future games, when MAR does not bounce in PIE, maybe it should just head back to MAR?
  57. I think I delay another year and see what happens. I don't have a strong defense against Germany, but with my fleets I can turtle. I will bounce in WES to guard against Italy getting cheeky, although Turkey should be taking up their full attention. Perhaps they will stab Austria soon? Actually the bounce seems silly, because Italy giving up ION would spell certain death for them. Will ENG piss off England? Maybe? I could go to BRE? Which is PIC in the spring, but that's still only 2 on Belgium which is pointless. ENG and oh well.
  58. You know what. Let's predict that Munich moves, Ruhr support holds BEL, and try to use BOH to slip into MUN. Why not. I can defend messing up with SPA -> MAR and PAR -> GAS next spring. It's very easy to turtle on 5 centers as France.
  59. BOH -> MUN
  60. PAR support (german) MUN -> BUR, in case of planned bounce
  61. MAO -> ENG
  62. SPA hold
  63. PIC -> BEL, in case England gives me a hand
  64.  
  65. 30 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  66. ------------
  67. W02/S03:
  68. Pretty much what I expected from England for builds. Keeps things safe and sane.
  69. The problem is, England is beginning to get out of control. At some point I’m not going to have the fleets to fight them off. So I should try and get my roaming army disbanded somehow? It doesn’t have much else to do. Russia is too weak in the north to challenge France atm.
  70. I could keep trying to sneak into Munich? That’s the fastest way home and leaves me in the place most likely to be displaced.
  71. I don’t expect Italy to come after me. Can’t leave ION open against double fleet Turkey. I’m just gonna wait another year and play very defensive this spring.
  72. ENG -> MAO
  73. PIC -> PAR
  74. PAR -> GAS
  75. SPA hold
  76. BOH -> ??????, I guess Munich. I can make peace in the fall. (edited)
  77.  
  78. 29 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  79. -----------
  80. A03:
  81. Ugh, I should have went to GAL. Germany saw what I saw which is that England is getting out of control. GAL might have gotten me disbanded.
  82. I’ll go to BOH this time and play defensive again. Bounce in BRE leaves it open, SPA covers MAR in case Germany rightly looks for revenge. MAO taps channel to signal my displeasure with that fleet being there, and to maybe cut it if it’s supporting NTH somewhere. Actually, I would rather bounce in BRE?
  83. Double bounce in BRE and MAR to hold my positioning, support Germany back into MUN, get disbanded next year hopefully.
  84. MAO, PAR -> BRE (bounce)
  85. BOH support BUR into MUN
  86. SPA, GAS -> MAR (bounce) (edited)
  87.  
  88. 27 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  89. ---------------
  90. S04:
  91. England built F EDI. Hm. Either they are signaling E/F still or they think I’m incompetent.
  92. I attack now, right? If I get lucky, England will convoy away LVP. If I don’t get lucky, then I’m stuck fighting for a bit, oh well. I can’t let Germany die (while I’m failing to profit from it). Even bouncing me in MAO isn’t the worst thing in the world.
  93. I don’t really want to hurt Russia, given they’re my best chance at another power threatening England. So….I probably support Austria into Italy? Italy is stuck thinking that they’re stuck in the south, and I can aid the A/R.
  94. BOH -> TYR (simpler and more likely that Germany or Austria supports it in the fall)
  95. GAS -> BRE
  96. PAR -> PIC (defense against England)
  97. MAO -> NAO
  98. SPA -> MAO (edited)
  99.  
  100. 27 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  101. ughhhhhh actually, I want to move to GAL and try to get disbanded still. let’s do that.
  102.  
  103. 26 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  104. --------------
  105. A04:
  106. Well, it all worked. I’m not sure there’s a better play than the usual followup of convoy to CLY. Kinda losing momentum for caring about this game because it’s clear that A and I are newer players and not familiar with needing to take risks in gunboat.
  107. BRE -> CLY convoyed by NAO and MAO
  108. PIC -> BRE
  109. BOH -> TYR again, I guess
  110.  
  111. 25 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  112. ------------
  113. W04:
  114. Well, I’m committed. Let’s see what happens. England could build A EDI to guarantee that I don’t take LVP. That would be interesting. Germany failed to take Russia’s support into SWE , which is a shame. But that gives me the feeling that Russia will build in StP which would be amazing. The last piece of the puzzle is just dealing with this Italy.
  115.  
  116. 24 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  117. ------------------
  118. S05:
  119. England is no fool. They built A EDI. I’m disappointed in Russia, I wanted something in StP, but maybe they think Austria is going to come after them? They can’t really win that war anyway? England will solo by then? Idk.
  120. I’ve got a crummy position. I expect ENG to tap MAO to keep me honest. Probably need to send BRE to GAS to cover Italy being annoying. Maybe I just give up attacking England entirely? With no help whatsoever, it makes more sense to try and grab TUN or at least punish Italy for continually poking Germany. BOH slides up to SIL to either provide support for Germany or to punish Russia for not building in StP.
  121. I’m not bored or losing in interest in this game. I’m just not sure what else there is to do besides wait for England to almost solo and then to see if I survive into the draw.
  122. BOH -> SIL
  123. NAO -> MAO
  124. MAO -> WES
  125. CLY -> LVP
  126. BRE -> GAS
  127.  
  128. 22 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  129. ------------
  130. A05:
  131. Nailed the prediction that Italy would move against Turkey. This should incentivize Austria to go after Italy as well. I will also be attacking WAR to force Russia to break their defense. My goal is to accelerate Austria’s growth in the south so that I can survive into the draw in Iberia.
  132. I expect Italy to try for MAR as revenge. I will guard with GAS and hopefully bounce, so that I can build in MAR in the winter. I also might need BRE open for a build if my abandoned CLY army gets disbanded (which I expect to happen).
  133. Giving up MAO would be a big problem for my Iberian survival plan, so I would rather lose BRE and let Germany stay in place for another year than accidentally misposition myself.
  134. MAO hold
  135. CLY support IRI -> LVP
  136. SIL -> WAR
  137. GAS -> MAR
  138. WES -> TUN
  139.  
  140. 21 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  141. -------------
  142. W05:
  143. I’ve got two builds, one from TUN, one from CLY disband. England has a build from BEL. I still need to assume that I will be at war with England forever, even if they are behaving strangely…so I’ve got to build F BRE and A PAR (MAR is occupied).
  144.  
  145. 20 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  146. ----------
  147. S06:
  148. Best possible disband for me from Italy, getting rid of PIE. They’re screwed.
  149. I’m not sure what Austria will do? I expect SMY to go to Russia, or Italy to double contest it again (foolish but still). Russia probably won’t convoy GRE over to NAP then…because of the risk of losing GRE? But honestly they should do the convoy because it would guarantee all the Italian home centers! If they don’t get displaced.
  150. So now the question is, do I want a rapid collapse of Italy? I think that answer is yes. Austria doesn’t need to come save me, they just need to get two fleets to reinforce my part of the stalemate line. If Italy slow drips centers to Austria, that gives more time for Austrian fleets to appear, because I don’t expect Austria to postpone builds (given how rare the move is).
  151. So I think I should support hold ION on the theory that they convoy, and if not, I’ve still got TUN for another year.
  152. I want to throw everything towards England. I can get into BUR, PIC, and force myself into ENG possibly. But now I’m looking at BEL and it has nothing to do this turn besides support hold ENG. So I’m not sure I can get away with it now. I think I would rather jam up LVP by tapping ENG with BRE. Maybe I get lucky and can still take BEL in the fall.
  153. Flip flopping, England could move to NAO and I would be much worse off. Really my goal is to delay them moving back into NTH and delay getting those armies off the island (glad I forced them to build the second, eh?). So I’ll do the supported attack on ENG.
  154. SIL should slide up to PRU to support Germany and/or walk around Russia to continue harassing them.
  155. SIL -> PRU
  156. PAR -> PIC
  157. MAR -> BUR
  158. BRE -> ENG supported by MAO
  159. TUN support hold ION
  160.  
  161. 19 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  162. ----------
  163. A06:
  164. Yeah, that was the guess, that’s fine. I think I hold onto MAO here, slide TUN into WES….actually if I slide up TUN into WES, then I can get away with attacking ENG this turn, which forces NTH to support hold BEL, which delays the armies!
  165. Prussia continues to roam.
  166. PRU support WAR to LIV
  167. BRE -> ENG supported by MAO
  168. PIC -> BEL supported by BUR
  169. TUN -> WES
  170.  
  171. 18 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  172. W06:
  173. Nice. Correct yomi level for combating England. I think I build A PAR to continue the assault? Not much point in contesting Italy, Austria has their two builds but it will take forever for them to take TUN from me.
  174.  
  175. 17 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  176. -----------
  177. S07:
  178. Moving to PIC and RUH sets me up to either defend BEL or retake BEL, since it would retreat to BUR. Or I can pivot and take out Munich. The other moveset would be sliding MAO into NAO and threatening LVP, but I think I don’t need to rush that much, as Russia is finally showing interest in fighting England in the north.
  179. Austria could slip VEN into PIE in an attempt to sneak attack MAR. I’m okay with risking this because BEL will likely be forced out and retreat to BUR, where I could cover MAR. I also have WES support holding MAO so that it can also cover TUN, if necessary.
  180. PRU has done its job. I’ll retreat it to show good faith towards Russia (at long last, sorry buddy :/ ) and to set up for potentially taking MUN.
  181. WES support hold MAO
  182. BRE -> ENG supported by MAO
  183. PAR -> PIC
  184. BUR -> RUH supported by BEL
  185. PRU -> SIL
  186.  
  187. 15 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  188. -------------
  189. A07:
  190. Gotta guard TUN with WES. I think I contest MUN? Austria isn’t really going to be my friend in a year or two. And then England is going to be back on my side.
  191. ENG -> MAO
  192. MAO -> SPA
  193. WES -> TUN
  194. SIL -> MUN supported by RUH and BUR
  195. PIC support hold BEL?
  196.  
  197. 14 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  198. ------------
  199. S08:
  200. Third fleet from Austria. That means war. Which is a shame because I have a decent stab via convoying through NAO into LVP this year, assuming England doesn’t cover it.
  201. What’s my plan here? My best defense is probably to delay until Russia grows strong enough to stab Austria, right? But realistically that doesn’t leave me much to work with in the future. Both England and the stabbed Austria will have to trust me not to dot them from behind.
  202. RUH defends MUN, BUR rotates to GAS for BRE/MAR defense, PIC moves to BUR for fall MUN defense.
  203. BUR -> GAS
  204. PIC -> BUR
  205. RUH support hold MUN
  206. MUN signal something idk
  207. MAO -> NAF
  208. SPA -> GoL
  209. WES -> TYS (edited)
  210.  
  211. 14 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  212. acutally, with GoL i dont have to rotate defend MAR
  213.  
  214. 14 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  215. eh w/e
  216.  
  217. 12 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  218. -----------
  219. A08:
  220. Defend TUN. GoL is a little awkward now, send it to TYS to force NAP to support TUN into TYS. GAS covers BRE, BUR covers MAR and sets up to push back Austria next year. Maybe a draw is coming soon after all.
  221. GoL -> TYS
  222. NAF -> TUN supported by WES
  223. GAS -> BRE
  224. BUR -> MAR
  225. RUH support hold MUN
  226.  
  227. 10 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  228. -----------
  229. S09:
  230. I can feel the game winding down. E/F and A/R are fairly stable in the way that they are threatening each other in this game. I think Austria could probably eventually push me back, but that’s outweighed by England’s ability to finish controlling the north.
  231. Gonna triple into TYS to try and catch Austria sleeping and force a weird position and/or fall fleet disband. I’ll probably lose MUN this turn, because Austria and Russia will coordinate.
  232. RUH support hold MUN
  233. MUN signal support to Russia
  234. BUR -> MAR
  235. BRE -> GAS
  236. GoL -> TYS supported by WES and TUN
  237.  
  238. 9 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  239. --------------
  240. A09:
  241. Austria defended TYS. I put up my draw vote to signal that I want Germany gone and then I’ll be happy. Boring defense here, triple power defending MUN. Too boring to put in the moves. (edited)
  242.  
  243. 9 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  244. S10:
  245. Nothing much new, aiming for the 4 way draw.
  246.  
  247. 8 days ago (as of 2020-02-10)
  248. A10:
  249. Support for Russia worked. England will take the build from Russia in turn. Austria is making moves but I can afford to lose TUN in a year if we don’t draw, not a biggie.
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