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mewtwo vs arceus part 2

leafbarrett
Aug 5th, 2014
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  1. (Mewtwo must survive Extremespeed for !!!these!!! to happen)
  2.  
  3. "Then what about the argument I was making to begin with: Will-o-wisp?"
  4. Well, here's the thing. Arceus gets the first hit in at full power. With Leftovers you may get just enough HP to survive Silk Scarf long enough to finish it (assuming Will-o-wisp doesn't miss...). The Silk Scarf scenario is the first scenario in which Mewtwo, if holding Leftovers, has a real chance of coming out on top, as long as Arceus isn't holding a Choice Band and doesn't use Swords Dance on the first turn. If Arceus is holding a Life Orb, it's a draw - both of them die on turn 3, 100% of the time. With Swords Dance, Mewtwo gets noped in the Silk Scarf scenario and Arceus has a miniscule chance of surviving in the Life Orb scenario (5 HP, tops).
  5. With a Choice Band? Pffft. Best case scenario, Mewtwo SURVIVES the second turn and manages to land a single hit.
  6. __________________________
  7.  
  8. 252+ Atk / 252 HP / 4 SpD Arceus: 444 HP
  9. 252+ SpA / Mewtwo: 353 HP
  10.  
  11. Scenario 1: SILK SCARF vs LEFTOVERS
  12. ------
  13. TURN 1
  14. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 178-210
  15. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  16.  
  17. SUBTOTALS:
  18. Mewtwo: 143 - 175
  19. Arceus: 444 - 444
  20.  
  21. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  22. Arceus -55 from Burn
  23.  
  24. TOTALS:
  25. Mewtwo: 165 - 197
  26. Arceus: 389 - 389
  27. ------
  28. TURN 2
  29. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 89-105
  30. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  31.  
  32. SUBTOTALS:
  33. Mewtwo: 60 - 118
  34. Arceus: 169 - 203
  35.  
  36. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  37. Arceus -55 from Burn
  38.  
  39. TOTALS:
  40. Mewtwo: 82 - 130
  41. Arceus: 114 - 148
  42. ------
  43. TURN 3 - THIS TURN DECIDES IT
  44. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 89-105
  45. !!!Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220!!!
  46.  
  47. SUBTOTALS:
  48. Mewtwo: 0 - 41
  49. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 114 - 148
  50.  
  51. !!!Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers!!!
  52. Arceus -55 from Burn
  53.  
  54. TOTALS:
  55. Mewtwo: !!!23 - 63!!! OR 0
  56. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 59 - 93
  57. __________________________
  58.  
  59. Scenario 2: LIFE ORB vs LEFTOVERS, NO SWORDS DANCE
  60.  
  61. TURN 1
  62. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 192-227
  63. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  64. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  65.  
  66. SUBTOTALS:
  67. Mewtwo: 126 - 161
  68. Arceus: 400 - 400
  69.  
  70. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  71. Arceus -55 from Burn
  72.  
  73. TOTALS:
  74. Mewtwo: 148 - 183
  75. Arceus: 345 - 345
  76. ------
  77. TURN 2
  78. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  79. Burned Arceus Shadow Claw vs. Mewtwo: 113-134
  80. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  81.  
  82. SUBTOTALS:
  83. Mewtwo: 14 - 70
  84. Arceus: 81 - 115
  85.  
  86. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  87. Arceus -55 from Burn
  88.  
  89. TOTALS:
  90. Mewtwo: 36 - 92
  91. Arceus: 26 - 60
  92. ------
  93. TURN 3 - MUTUAL DESTRUCTION ASSURED
  94. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 96-113
  95. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  96.  
  97. SUBTOTALS:
  98. Mewtwo: 0
  99. Arceus: 0 - 16
  100.  
  101. Arceus -55 from Burn
  102.  
  103. TOTALS:
  104. Mewtwo: 0
  105. Arceus: 0
  106. __________________________
  107.  
  108. Scenario 3: SILK SCARF vs LEFTOVERS, WITH SWORDS DANCE
  109.  
  110. TURN 1
  111. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  112. Arceus Swords Dance
  113.  
  114. SUBTOTALS:
  115. Mewtwo: 353 - 353
  116. Arceus: 444 - 353
  117.  
  118. Arceus -55 from Burn
  119.  
  120. TOTALS:
  121. Mewtwo: 353 - 353
  122. Arceus: 389 - 389
  123. ------
  124. TURN 2
  125.  
  126. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 177-209
  127. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  128.  
  129. SUBTOTALS:
  130. Mewtwo: 61 - 119
  131. Arceus: 169 - 203
  132.  
  133. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  134. Arceus -55 from Burn
  135.  
  136. TOTALS:
  137. Mewtwo: 83 - 131
  138. Arceus: 114 - 148
  139. ------
  140. TURN 3 - NOPE
  141.  
  142. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 177-209
  143.  
  144. SUBTOTALS:
  145. Mewtwo: 0
  146. Arceus: 114 - 148
  147.  
  148. Arceus -55 from Burn
  149.  
  150. TOTALS:
  151. Mewtwo: 0
  152. Arceus: 59 - 93
  153. __________________________
  154.  
  155. Scenario 4: LIFE ORB vs LEFTOVERS, WITH SWORDS DANCE
  156.  
  157. TURN 1
  158. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  159. Arceus Swords Dance
  160.  
  161. SUBTOTALS:
  162. Mewtwo: 353 - 353
  163. Arceus: 444 - 444
  164.  
  165. Arceus -55 from Burn
  166.  
  167. TOTALS:
  168. Mewtwo: 353 - 353
  169. Arceus: 389 - 389
  170. ------
  171. TURN 2
  172. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  173. +2 Burned Arceus Shadow Claw vs. Mewtwo: 225-265
  174. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  175.  
  176. SUBTOTALS:
  177. Mewtwo: 88 - 128
  178. Arceus: 125 - 159
  179.  
  180. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  181. Arceus -55 from Burn
  182.  
  183. TOTALS:
  184. Mewtwo: 110 - 140
  185. Arceus: 70 - 104
  186. ------
  187. TURN 3 - MUTUAL DESTRUCTION NOT ASSURED
  188. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 192-226
  189. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  190.  
  191. SUBTOTALS:
  192. Mewtwo: 0
  193. Arceus: 26 - 60
  194.  
  195. Arceus -55 from Burn
  196.  
  197. TOTALS:
  198. Mewtwo: 0
  199. Arceus: 0 - 5
  200. __________________________
  201.  
  202. Scenario 5: CHOICE BAND vs LEFTOVERS
  203.  
  204. TURN 1
  205. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 222-262
  206. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  207.  
  208. SUBTOTALS:
  209. Mewtwo: 91 - 131
  210. Arceus: 444 - 444
  211.  
  212. Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers
  213. Arceus -55 from Burn
  214.  
  215. TOTALS:
  216. Mewtwo: 113 - 153
  217. Arceus: 389 - 389
  218. ------
  219. TURN 2 - POTENTIAL 2 TURN LOSS
  220. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 111-131
  221. !!!Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220!!!
  222.  
  223. SUBTOTALS:
  224. Mewtwo: 0 - 42
  225. Arceus: !!!169 - 203!!! OR 389 - 389
  226.  
  227. !!!Mewtwo +22 from Leftovers!!!
  228. Arceus -55 from Burn
  229.  
  230. TOTALS:
  231. Mewtwo: !!!23 - 55!!! OR 0
  232. Arceus: !!!114 - 148!!! OR 334 - 334
  233. ------
  234. !!!TURN 3 - REKT!!!
  235. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 111-131
  236.  
  237. SUBTOTALS:
  238. Mewtwo: 0
  239. Arceus: 114 - 148
  240.  
  241. Arceus -55 from Burn
  242.  
  243. TOTALS:
  244. Mewtwo: 0
  245. Arceus: 59 - 93
  246. __________________________
  247.  
  248. "But what about bulky Mewtwo?"
  249. Oh boy, now we're REALLY getting into overspecialization. Keep in mind that sacrificing all Speed investment to take on a single threat is a bad idea when it means you get outsped by other things that you have to worry about. I've already spent well over 2 hours on this, but if you insist... 252 HP EVs turns the Silk Scarf matchup from a "maybe" to a "definitely", marking Mewtwo's first guaranteed win scenario. The Life Orb scenario is either a draw or just barely Mewtwo's victory. Ironically, the SD Silk Scarf scenario is a complete reversal of fortune - instead of a guaranteed loss, this is a guaranteed win. The SD Life Orb scenario is very nearly a guaranteed win for Mewtwo, and even if Mewtwo faints, Arceus is almost certainly going to faint afterwards, but there is a chance, however slim, that Arceus may survive the third turn. Mewtwo has a chance in the Choice Band scenario, but not a very good one. If he's taken more than 4 past the minimum damage, he is not guaranteed survival, and if he's got less than 112 HP, he loses, period.
  250. __________________________
  251.  
  252. 252+ Atk / 252 HP / 4 SpD Arceus: 444 HP
  253. 252+ SpA / 252 HP / 0 Def Mewtwo: 416 HP
  254.  
  255. Scenario 1: SILK SCARF vs LEFTOVERS
  256. ------
  257. TURN 1
  258. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 178-210
  259. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  260.  
  261. SUBTOTALS:
  262. Mewtwo: 206 - 238
  263. Arceus: 444 - 444
  264.  
  265. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  266. Arceus -55 from Burn
  267.  
  268. TOTALS:
  269. Mewtwo: 232 - 264
  270. Arceus: 389 - 389
  271. ------
  272. TURN 2
  273. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 89-105
  274. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  275.  
  276. SUBTOTALS:
  277. Mewtwo: 127 - 175
  278. Arceus: 169 - 203
  279.  
  280. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  281. Arceus -55 from Burn
  282.  
  283. TOTALS:
  284. Mewtwo: 153 - 201
  285. Arceus: 114 - 148
  286. ------
  287. TURN 3 - THE FIRST GUARANTEED WIN
  288. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 89-105
  289. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  290.  
  291. SUBTOTALS:
  292. Mewtwo: 48 - 112
  293. Arceus: 0
  294.  
  295. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  296.  
  297. TOTALS:
  298. Mewtwo: 74 - 138
  299. Arceus: 0
  300. __________________________
  301.  
  302. Scenario 2: LIFE ORB vs LEFTOVERS, NO SWORDS DANCE
  303.  
  304. TURN 1
  305. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 192-227
  306. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  307. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  308.  
  309. SUBTOTALS:
  310. Mewtwo: 189 - 224
  311. Arceus: 400 - 400
  312.  
  313. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  314. Arceus -55 from Burn
  315.  
  316. TOTALS:
  317. Mewtwo: 215 - 250
  318. Arceus: 345 - 345
  319. ------
  320. TURN 2
  321. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  322. Burned Arceus Shadow Claw vs. Mewtwo: 113-134
  323. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  324.  
  325. SUBTOTALS:
  326. Mewtwo: 81 - 137
  327. Arceus: 81 - 115
  328.  
  329. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  330. Arceus -55 from Burn
  331.  
  332. TOTALS:
  333. Mewtwo: 107 - 163
  334. Arceus: 26 - 60
  335. ------
  336. TURN 3 - BETTER ODDS THAN LAST TIME
  337. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 96-113
  338. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  339. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  340.  
  341. SUBTOTALS:
  342. Mewtwo: 0 - 67
  343. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 0 - 16
  344.  
  345. !!!Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers!!!
  346. Arceus -55 from Burn
  347.  
  348. TOTALS:
  349. Mewtwo: 0 OR !!!27 - 93!!!
  350. Arceus: 0
  351. __________________________
  352.  
  353. Scenario 3: SILK SCARF vs LEFTOVERS, WITH SWORDS DANCE
  354.  
  355. TURN 1
  356. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  357. Arceus Swords Dance
  358.  
  359. SUBTOTALS:
  360. Mewtwo: 416 - 416
  361. Arceus: 444 - 444
  362.  
  363. Arceus -55 from Burn
  364.  
  365. TOTALS:
  366. Mewtwo: 416 - 416
  367. Arceus: 389 - 389
  368. ------
  369. TURN 2
  370.  
  371. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 177-209
  372. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  373.  
  374. SUBTOTALS:
  375. Mewtwo: 207 - 239
  376. Arceus: 169 - 203
  377.  
  378. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  379. Arceus -55 from Burn
  380.  
  381. TOTALS:
  382. Mewtwo: 233 - 265
  383. Arceus: 114 - 148
  384. ------
  385. TURN 3 - REVERSAL OF FORTUNE
  386.  
  387. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 177-209
  388. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  389.  
  390. SUBTOTALS:
  391. Mewtwo: 24 - 88
  392. Arceus: 0
  393.  
  394. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  395.  
  396. TOTALS:
  397. Mewtwo: 50 - 114
  398. Arceus: 0
  399. __________________________
  400.  
  401. Scenario 4: LIFE ORB vs LEFTOVERS, WITH SWORDS DANCE
  402.  
  403. TURN 1
  404. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  405. Arceus Swords Dance
  406.  
  407. SUBTOTALS:
  408. Mewtwo: 416 - 416
  409. Arceus: 444 - 353
  410.  
  411. Arceus -55 from Burn
  412.  
  413. TOTALS:
  414. Mewtwo: 416 - 416
  415. Arceus: 389 - 389
  416. ------
  417. TURN 2
  418. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  419. +2 Burned Arceus Shadow Claw vs. Mewtwo: 225-265
  420. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  421.  
  422. SUBTOTALS:
  423. Mewtwo: 196 - 230
  424. Arceus: 125 - 159
  425.  
  426. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  427. Arceus -55 from Burn
  428.  
  429. TOTALS:
  430. Mewtwo: 222 - 256
  431. Arceus: 70 - 104
  432. ------
  433. TURN 3 - 5 HP SHORT OF GUARANTEED WIN
  434. +2 Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 192-226
  435. Arceus -44 from Life Orb
  436. !!!Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220!!!
  437.  
  438. SUBTOTALS:
  439. Mewtwo: 0 - 64
  440. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 26 - 60
  441.  
  442. !!!Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers!!!
  443. Arceus -55 from Burn
  444.  
  445. TOTALS:
  446. Mewtwo: !!!27 - 90!!! OR 0
  447. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 0 - 5
  448. __________________________
  449.  
  450. Scenario 5: CHOICE BAND vs LEFTOVERS
  451.  
  452. TURN 1
  453. Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 222-262
  454. Mewtwo Will-o-wisp vs. Arceus
  455.  
  456. SUBTOTALS:
  457. Mewtwo: 154 - 194
  458. Arceus: 444 - 444
  459.  
  460. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  461. Arceus -55 from Burn
  462.  
  463. TOTALS:
  464. Mewtwo: 180 - 220
  465. Arceus: 389 - 389
  466. ------
  467. TURN 2
  468. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 111-131
  469. Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220
  470.  
  471. SUBTOTALS:
  472. Mewtwo: 49 - 109
  473. Arceus: 169 - 203
  474.  
  475. Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers
  476. Arceus -55 from Burn
  477.  
  478. TOTALS:
  479. Mewtwo: 75 - 135
  480. Arceus: 114 - 148
  481. ------
  482. TURN 3 - ODDS ARE STILL AGAINST MEWTWO
  483. Burned Arceus Extreme Speed vs. Mewtwo: 111-131
  484. !!!Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. Arceus: 186-220!!!
  485.  
  486. SUBTOTALS:
  487. Mewtwo: 0 - 24
  488. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 114 - 148
  489.  
  490. !!!Mewtwo +26 from Leftovers!!!
  491. Arceus -55 from Burn
  492.  
  493. TOTALS:
  494. Mewtwo: !!!27 - 50!!! OR 0
  495. Arceus: !!!0!!! OR 59 - 93
  496. __________________________
  497.  
  498. "Don't forget Drain Punch!"
  499. ...really? Please don't make me calculate all that out, it'll take ages... :(
  500.  
  501. If you're using a SpAtk oriented build, Drain Punch does this.
  502. 0- Atk Mewtwo Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 90-108 (20.2 - 24.3%)
  503. 45 - 54 HP recovered
  504. If, for whatever bizarre reason, you decide that an Attack-oriented build is somehow a good idea on a Mewtwo that's not Mega Mewtwo X and will have more utility in any other matchup than a SpAttack build (hint: it won't), it does this.
  505. 252+ Atk Mewtwo Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 136-162 (30.6 - 36.4%)
  506. 68 - 81 HP recovered
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