Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #10

We're halfway through qualifiers! Overall, it was a rough weekend for points for many people :(  However, this also means that the predicted benchmark for 64th places has dropped correspondingly, and is now at 3463 points.

Here are the predicted top 64 after Qual #10:

1. Fmz - 4192
2. Icola - 4014
3. WTHH - 4008*
4. Marco - 3964
5. SeYsEy - 3921
6. KCNecro - 3876*
7. kariossa - 3863
8. Goomba - 3855
9. Sponge - 3841
10. CheckRaise - 3840
11. MrMario7788 - 3824
12. SariasObject - 3817
13. favio94 - 3803
14. iceninetm - 3800*
15. JustSam - 3746
16. Vodzilla - 3745
17. mrmartin - 3737
18. Riley - 3726
19. rockchalk - 3710
20. Exodus - 3708
21. Alexis - 3701
22. Elagatua - 3700
23. YUSoEpic - 3700
24. gsk8 - 3693
25. ArthurOudini - 3687
26. Ryuja - 3677
27. Hamsda - 3676
28. Xef199221 - 3673
29. Gogeta - 3661
30. Sora - 3656
31. WoodenBarrel - 3645
32. Cokotier - 3644
33. Stuck_man - 3635
34. Aosuna - 3633
35. FantaTanked - 3632
36. Skyward - 3630
37. Melrose - 3617
38. sanzeau - 3612
39. Flouflouche - 3609
40. drooness - 3606
41. Yoyocanari - 3605
42. juwk - 3602
43. Narcottic - 3600
44. Xopar - 3592
45. Nopons - 3590
46. Cola - 3585
47. DylanMeeble - 3583
48. zelgadissan - 3572*
49. Braaks - 3568
50. Raikaru - 3564*
51. BrotinderDose - 3558
52. HaydeyPatatey - 3557
53. Cfalcon - 3551
54. Engel - 3526
55. Jaybone25 - 3515
56. GWL - 3512*
57. alfalfa - 3506
58. kr3z - 3504
59. RyuuKane - 3495
60. DareDevinX - 3491
61. PurpleRupees - 3486
62. Koari - 3480*
63. Kirox - 3478
64. PhilippeTitou - 3463

* indicates racers that have only entered 1 or 2 races


We've also got an additional 20 people who are outside the projected top 64 but can make it in if they finish the season strong.  That's one more than last time!  These are all folks who need to perform above their current middle score, BUT don't need to do as well as their current best score, so it's definitely possible!

DoitiEtok 3440 (66th) -> 3561.5
docheaps 3437 (67th) -> 3569
emosoda 3432 (68th) -> 3492
Gavaroni 3425 (70th) -> 3580.5
EarlWeird 3415 (72nd) -> 3515.5
Aughoti 3412 (73rd) -> 3518
DubuDeccer 3408 (74th) -> 3501.5
Markars 3408 (74th) -> 3570
Digdig 3398 (76th) -> 3507
AlexanderHD 3375 (79th) -> 3585.5
Kevin_818 3373 (80th) -> 3656.5
TheLightswoord 3358 (82nd) -> 3626.5
Spikevegeta 3322 (89th) -> 3463
Weasel2366 3320 (91st) -> 3537.5
SlyRyD 3312 (92nd) -> 3584
TomPouce 3308 (94th) -> 3522
zorro275 3299 (96th) -> 3512
KINGsamps0n 3284 (98th) -> 3531.5
z3ph1r 3266 (102nd) -> 3521
xYoshi9100x 3082 (127th) -> 3481


As more people finish 5+ races, the top of the leaderboard is starting to take shape.  Here are the updated safety ratings, which now extend to anyone who is currently 26th or better:

Lock for top 64:
none

Basically guaranteed: 7th place and up (3683+ points)
Icola
Marco
kariossa
SariasObject
SeYsEy
Riley
favio94

Very likely: 18th place and up (3569+ points)
Gogeta
mrmartin
Xef199221
WoodenBarrel
Sora
Alexis
Exodus
juwk
rockchalk
Cola
drooness

Likely: 26th place and up (3463+ points)
Nopons
ArthurOudini
Melrose
Flouflouche
Aosuna
RyuuKane
BrotinderDose
DylanMeeble


And for Challenge Cup, things are still pretty open: The projected score for top 128 is 3076 points, which is anyone currently in 41st place and up.  But since 26 of those are likely safe for the top 64, that's really only 15 people, so over 3/4ths of Challenge Cup is still completely up in the air.


Links to past pastes:
Qual #8: https://pastebin.com/3KZiMadd
Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv