comparing Wuhan-nCoV outbreak w/ Event 201 CAPS scenario

Summary: Part one: Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 1, Intro and Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Discussion - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm1-DnxRiPM

CAPS (makebelive virus explained) https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1039 Difference: 10% mortality, transmittable by air.
They use hiv medication for treatment https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1413
n95 mask and glove supplies go low in hospitals due to civilian hoarding, shortages in many parts of the world (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1474)
no vaccine in less then a year, likely much longer, no licenced coronaviruses vaccine (any so SARS, MERS ...) atm https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1491

strategy: switching HIV patients to other antiviral drugs
problem: hoarding by pharma producing countries
no information on global n95 surge production capacity
not uncommon to have shortages on masks during flue season, expect to increase demand by at least 2-3 in a pandemic

decision1(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1759): How will products be distributed? Some suggest suppliers and distributors can decide by themself who to sell to, others say countries can decide where to export masks while the last group calls for entrusting a single international entity with distribution and allocation of medical supplies (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=1739)

[Answers not that interesting.] Look for other measures to limit infections

Question doesnt get answered, they will just produce a vaccine.

Danger for low income countries due to lack of surveillance, and threat of being at the bottom of the foodchain. WTO will enable them to repurpose existing loans. make sure the production of medical gear and medicine is financed.

Moderator asks again https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2227

Next two propose a centralized "honest broker"(not sure who they are). United nations want to be that honest broker. gates: UN isnt capable of that, instead go ask the private sector to directly ship to the target destination with the international broker only deciding what goes where.

Chinese CDC (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2506)still likes the idea of international body but recommends to supply the supplies to areas that have the highest risk of mutation. Makes sense since they would be a country that would be required to export. China wont have enough for even their own population.

world bank (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2587) proposed global supply chain years ago. there is also a pandemic emergency financing facility, which would inject money based on the infection numbers. Making sure that those funds are used and not overlooked.

(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2682) How to prevent panic (here for switching people off HIV meds): Using concise communication using socialmedia, news or directly at the hospitals. Next guy says the body distributing resources should also act as a "conniving enterprise around communications". Goal: public eduction on prevention.

(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2776) its not just a problem of scarcity but also severity, different rates of fatalities. Providers are missing in this stakeholder group. providers should combat panic. hoarding of n95 a big problem during SARS. ALSO PROBLEM ABOUT KNOCKOFF N95 WHICH DIDNT WORK

CAPS fatality rate (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2857) WHITE SPACES ON THE INFECTION MAP ARE ASSUMED TO BE SURVEILLANCE ERRORS, ITS EVERYWHERE

Former US national security advisor (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2903) agrees internation mechanism for coordination. But basically Burgers wont let that entity decide anything. But sure the idea is nice.

How much are states assumed to be contributing to such international stockpiles? (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=2997) US guesses the focus should be as much as possible. Problem of promoting commitments through this mechanism. (old UN problem of donations not coming through i think)

(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=3092) All these products are already contractually committed. Figure out who has got control and where for the greater global good it should be shipped. Governments are however limited in how much they contribute to not face backlash at home. It needs a centralized framework.

(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=3168)Protectionism from some countries expected, as it will be seen as globalism is responsible for this padnemic. "Business, health and scientific communities need to combat this rising rhetoric and misleading information."

(https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=3199) US CDC: Instead of preventing the spread, combat severity. Communication to the public is extremely important. Perfect international sharing wont happen, just get it started

Force companies to break contracts? Governments have to decide that individually.

Focus should also be on protecting (with supplies) the production centres, as those are often low income countries.

Monitoring public debate (https://youtu.be/Vm1-DnxRiPM?t=3337) Conspiracy theories, trust in government and pharmaceuticals is important. If those are coming up already we are at the edge of hysterical reactions. Then it will get out of control.