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- HOTEL CLERK: Lord Keynes! Welcome, sir. It's a pleasure.
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- 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,000
- KEYNES: The pleasure's all mine.
- CLERK: Your agenda--
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- 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:17,000
- KEYNES: That won't be necessary. I am the agenda. CLERK: [laughs]
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- 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,000
- KEYNES: Tell them I've arrived--
- HAYEK: And then tell them I've arrived.
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- 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:24,000
- CLERK: And, your name is?
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- 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:50,000
- HAYEK: Hayek. F.A. Hayek. With an "H".
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- 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,000
- KEYNES: Freddy. (yeah) Keynes. Hey, listen, party at the Fed.
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- 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,000
- HAYEK: Already? KEYNES: Twenty minutes. Lobby.
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- John Maynard Keynes. F.A. Hayek.
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- 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:05,000
- KEYNES: Yeah, we're opposed
- HAYEK: We oppose each other philosophically
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- 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:06,000
- KEYNES: In the same studio
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- 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,000
- We've been going back and forth for a century
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- 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:10,000
- KEYNES: I want to steer markets
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- 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:11,000
- HAYEK: I want them set free
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- 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,000
- There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason
- to fear it
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- 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,000
- HAYEK: Blame low interest rates
- KEYNES: No... it's the animal spirits
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- 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:23,000
- John Maynard Keynes wrote the book on modern macro The man you need when the economy's off track
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- 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,000
- Depression, recession, Now your question's in session
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- 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,000
- Have a seat and I'll school you in one simple lesson
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- 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:34,000
- Boom! 1929: the big crash, We didn't bounce back, economy's in the trash
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- 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:40,000
- Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages, Waiting for recovery? (Seriously?) That's outrageous
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- I had a real plan any fool can understand, The advice real simple: boost aggregate demand!
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- 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:51,000
- C, I, G, altogether gets to Y, Keep that total growing, watch the economy fly
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- 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,000
- We've been going back and forth for a century
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- 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:54,000
- KEYNES: I want to steer markets
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- 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,000
- HAYEK: I want them set free
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- 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,000
- There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it.
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- 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,000
- HAYEK: Blame low interest rates
- KEYNES: No... it's the animal spirits
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- 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,000
- You see it's all about spending, Hear the register cha-ching
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- 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,000
- Circular flow, The dough is everything
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- 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,000
- So if that flow is getting low, It doesn't matter the reason
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- 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,000
- We need more government spending, Now it's stimulus season
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- 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:16,000
- So forget about saving, Get it straight out of your head
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- 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,000
- Like I said, "In the long run, we're all dead"
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- Savings is destruction, that's the paradox of thrift, Don't keep money in your pocket or that growth will never lift, because
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- Business is driven by the animal spirits, The bull and the bear and there's reasons to fear
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- It's effects on capital investment, income, and growth That's why the state should fill the gap, with stimulus both
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- The monetary and the fiscal, they're equally correct Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
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- 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:46,000
- Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth The multiplier driving higher the economy's health
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- 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:52,000
- And if the Central Bank's interest rate policy tanks A liquidity trap, that new money's stuck in the banks!
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- 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:58,000
- Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for Let the spending soar, now that you know the score
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- My General Theory's made quite an impression [a revolution] I transformed the econ profession
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- You know me, modesty, still I'm taking a bow Say it loud, say it proud, we're all Keynesians now
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- 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,000
- We've been goin' back and forth for a century
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- 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:13,000
- KEYNES: I want to steer markets,
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- 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:14,000
- HAYEK: I want them set free
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- 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,000
- There's a boom and bust
- cycle and good reason to fear it
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- 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,000
- KEYNES: I made my case, Freddie H
- Listen up , Can you hear it?
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- HAYEK: I'll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes His theory conceals the mechanics of change
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- That simple equation, too much aggregation Ignores human action and motivation
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- And yet it continues as a justification For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
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- You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch Then all that we're left with is debt, and a bunch
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- If you're living high on that cheap credit hog Don't look for cure from the hair of the dog
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- 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:54,000
- Real savings come first if you want to invest The market coordinates time with interest
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- Your focus on spending is pushing on thread In the long run, my friend, it's your theory that's dead
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- 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:05,000
- So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective Prepare to get schooled in my Austrian perspective
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- 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,000
- We've been going back and forth for a century
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- 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:11,000
- KEYNES: I want to steer markets,
- HAYEK: I want them set free
- 59
- 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,000
- There's a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
- 60
- 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,000
- HAYEK: Blame low interest rates.
- KEYNES: No... it's the animal spirits
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- 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:21,000
- The place you should study isn't the bust It's the boom that should make you feel leery, that's the thrust
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- Of my theory, the capital structure is key. Malinvestments wreck the economy
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- 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:32,000
- The boom gets started with an expansion of credit The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
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- 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:38,000
- That new money is confused for real loanable funds But it's just inflation that's driving the ones
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- Who invest in new projects like housing construction The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
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- The savings aren't real, consumption's up too And the grasping for resources reveals there's too few
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- 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:54,000
- So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise With the costs of production, price signals were lies
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- 00:04:54,000 --> 00:05:01,000
- The boom was a binge that's a matter of fact Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack.
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- 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:06,000
- Whether it's the late twenties or two thousand and five Booming bad investments, seems like they'd thrive
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- 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:12,000
- You must save to invest, don't use the printing press Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed
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- 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:17,000
- Your so-called "stimulus" will make things even worse It's just more of the same, more incentives perversed
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- 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:23,000
- And that credit crunch ain't a liquidity trap Just a broke banking system, I'm done, that's a wrap.
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- 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,000
- We've been goin' back and forth for a century
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- 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,000
- KEYNES: I want to steer markets,
- HAYEK: I want them set free
- 75
- 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,000
- There's a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
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- 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,000
- HAYEK: Blame low interest rates.
- KEYNES: No it's the animal spirits
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