Russian view of "gunboat with EOG expectation"

Spring, 1901:  Drew Russia. Want to grow, but don't want to grow so quickly that others think I'm a threat. Don't be too aggressive, but if you aren't pushing hard enough someone will take advantage.
Read something somewhere that as Russia you should consider using southern builds in the North, and northern builds in the south. I'm sure it isn't so simple.

Autumn 01 -- Not expecting the bounce into Galicia to go so well, I think Austria might try to force their way into Rum, or perhaps try to block my gaining of a centre. I figure they either try to defend against me gaining Vienna, or go all out on Rum.
My choice in response is to bet on Gal to Bud or Vie, and support Sev to Rum with Ukr (losing Black Sea to the Turkish); or move to Black Sea and take a punt on Ukraine to Rum either with Galician support.
Things will be easier if GoB takes Sweden, but I hear this is unlikely in Gunboat games

Builds 01 -- Unexpected gains in Black Sea, unexpected support into Rumania.
Turkey obviously want an ally, understandable. Possible juggernaut? Need to work out how to signal to them that I am on side. Perhaps retreating from BS, but I think I need that for defence of Rum.
Probably need a build in the north. I feel like I can see this already collapsing like a flan in a cupboard. Too many borders with not enough support.
Actually, with England only in the North Sea, I can probably defend St Pete with one unit in the spring, so maybe a build in the south is preferable? I need to make sure it doesn't become a habit. If England move to Finland and convoy another army to Norway, I'm boned. Alternatively, France only have one build, an army, and England are pushing for EC. England might push the naval advantage and move West.
I miss press already

Spring 02 -- England are going for France, which we obviously like. Germany want Sweden. Perhaps an entente can be arranged if I support them into Swe from GoB and then retreat to St P. The army can shift south.
In the south, I want Turkey on side, but I'm also liable to lose Gal. Not much we can do about that. Assuming Turkey want me on side working with them and the Jugg is on, they would probably take a swing at Serbia. Supporting that might work. We shall see. I am sully expecting to end the year with an Austrian unit in Ukraine, but if my fleet is in St P, then that army can cover Mos, and BS can cover Sev. No drama (he says)

Autumn 02 -- Nothing went as expected there (except the loss of Gal), hopefully the other nations saw my offers and can see I'm wanting to work with them (Bulg supported Rum to Serb, so that's good)...
We expect Gal to Ukr, and possibly Bud to Gal, Tri to Bud, but that leaves Serbia undefended so perhaps not.
More likely Tri supports Serb, as does Bud, and Gal to Ukr allows War into Gal. No builds for anyone, (unless I gain Norway - see below) but I can backfill to defend Mos, War and Sev if required.
Most likely, Gal to Rum with support from Bud and Serb. Unless Bul taps Serb, Rum is lost. But then, if Italy see that and move in, with Greece support Bul is lost. What a shit show.
England are moving on France. Good. We like this. Germany let them into Sweden but will retake this turn, even better. I can try and slide into Norway, though will probably bounce with North Sea or Sweden, and GoB can support Baltic to Sweden in case NS taps Den. Germany wins 2 and hopefully pushes south or West, taking advantage of Austria's focus on Turkey and I, and the breakdown of France. However, they are going to have to build in Kiel and Berlin unless they do something funky, so that will be interesting.
Maybe Italy takes its destiny in its own hands and Io S Aeg to Gre. One can hope

Spring 03 -- The main concern is the unit in Ukraine, so lets start with that. They have 3 places to go, Mos, Sev or War. GoB is going to block St Pete whilst St Pete retakes (or bounces) Moscow. Meanwhile, we leave the other two free. If Ukr tries for Mos, then they are safe, otherwise Mos can support the recapture of War or Sev.
Why? Otherwise, I expect Serbia to take Rumania and in the Autumn Galicia falls to Austria. Losing momentum, we fall back and all is terrible. If we capture Budapest (and there is no reason to think we won't) then at worst we lose nothing and more likely we gain a centre, especially is Turkey get off their backside and start pushing forwards

Spring 03 (retreats) -- Was not expecting that. Hmmm...

Autumn 03 -- In decline. The England/Germany alliance is going to be unstoppable into St Pete, but I can hopefully defend Warsaw. In the South I have some choices.

Again, it all depends on Austria:
--defending Vienna with Trieste - not much I can do about it, but Italy might take Tri with Tyr
--defending Vienna with Budapest without support - need a three unit assault on Rumania to win, but is doable
--defend Vienna with Budapest with support from Tri - need either a three unit assault on Rum, or to move Gal to Bud to gain a centre
--don't defend Vienna, commit to defence of Rum - only possible gain for me is Vienna, assuming Italy don't also go for it. What are the chances?
Assuming each is as likely as the other (pah, that's not how the world works) then a 3 unit assault on Rum is most likely to succeed. But Austria must be thinking the same...

Autumn 03 (builds) -- crap

Spring 05 -- Not sure what happened to the diary to date, basically 04 was returning to a sense of normality.
Turkey and Austria are working together towards Italy. Let's make Turkey pay. Sev can access Ankara without being stopped, and maybe they'll support us into Rumania at the same time. I don't imagine they'll happily support our holding of Rum, but that's handle-able.

Autumn 05 -- Turkey can still lose Ankara, but I'm hoping they push for Serbia. Austria should defend with Budapest supported by Rumania, given my obvious move against Turkey and support of them.
So, we take Ankara, and move Sev to Rum with Gal support.
Austria may tap Gal with Vie, or may move Tri to Serb instead, but they need another centre or will lose a centre. But Italy will see what Turkey are doing and are in a prime spot to take the Ionian and push against Austria. The Turkish fleet in the Ionian ends up in the Adriatic?
In the north, in case we win two centres, move St Pete to GoB (perhaps Liv is preferable in case not) to allow a build.

Autumn 1905 (Builds) -- Presumably Austria disband their fleet and focus on the land war, although that gives Italy supremacy over the Med. That works for me, I'd be happy to see a resurgent Italy in Smyrna, Greece and Trieste.
I suspect an army in Moscow will avoid German nervousness whilst being able to boost access to the Austrian centres... Maybe. I might just be hitting my head against a wall
Assuming France and Germany remain friendly, Germany will be coming for Warsaw sooner rather than later.

Autumn 1906 -- Not convinced this year has worked in our favour, I am maintaining power in Armenia to support Italian powr in the Turkish centres. I need an ally

Autumn 1907 -- I thought I'd set Sev to Ukr in the last turn, I obviously messed up. That's frustrating.
OK. Warsaw is lost. How do we handle this?
We need Italy on side to stand any chance against Austria, who are surging and will control the East if they aren't contained soon. But there isn't anything that anyone can do immediately to stop them (So stupid, that miss-order)
The only possible saving grace is if Munich taps Silesia, and Austria moves Gal to War...

Autumn 1907 (Builds) -- ...

Autumn 1908 -- Womp womp

Autumn 1909 -- Ok, so for Germany to not have Austria coming over the Scandies, they need St Pete to hold, so should... support my hold. Similarly, Turkey will support Austria to Ank or Any, so Italy and I need to work together.
I might survive this purely on position... It's be pure luck though.
Germany need Italy to hold Austria back whilsy they finish France, Italy need Germany to retake Tunis and put pressure of central Austria so they can't keep pushing into the peninsula...
Who knows though

Aut 10 -- Turkey put in their draw vote, I'm hoping that they and I can keep bouncing Austria out of holding Smyrna, or the other Turkish centres. Germany, meanwhile are in position to axe England and then move to squeeze me out of St Pete's. Sad times.
Assuming Germany force Austria to use their fleets to defend the Ionian, Turkey and I might yet survive this

Spring, 1911 -- similarly, Austria don't want Germany to take St P, as the line is forming and Tunis is under threat of going brown
All we need to do now is second guess Austria and Turkey in the south. If I were Austria, I'd expect me to do the same again and move to Smyrna, and we both want it to remain Green for another turn (whilst Austria take Naples so they can push for Tunis and Tyrrhenian). Simultaneously, Turkey and I don't want a Austria to provide support to themselves or we lose, but I don't want Turkey to gain a foothold, because they could box me out. Basically I need the status quo to maintain in the south and for the naval battle in the Med to be fierce.
I think the only way this resolves is if Turkey and I bounce Any, but we can't collaborate... Bloody gunboat!

Later that day -- Actually, German forces have won this. Austria don't have enough units to stop a German unit taking Warsaw or sneaking through Galicia and taking Rumania or similar, unless Austria pull back now

Aut 12 -- This will be interesting... St P is lost, and Portugal is done, so we just need to survive one more year to survive this game...
Turkey need to defend Greece so can't support move to Con so same again?