Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #14

Qualifier #14 wrapped up earlier today, and with that, we are now done with the weekend qualifiers for Season 5.

As expected, the benchmarks for top 64 and top 128 dropped a little from Q12:
Top 64 is now 3410 (was 3425)
Top 128 is 3028 (was 3097)

The predictor has dropped the projected score of anyone with only 1 or 2 races.  So everyone in the projected top 64/128 have joined at least 3 races.  In fact, all but 8 of the projected top 64 have at least 5 non-zero scores.  Of those 8, 1 has only entered 3 races (iceninetm), 2 have only entered 4 races (WTHH, Xopar), and 5 have entered at least 5 races but have some forfeits that are counting towards their current score (Ryuja, Engel, PurpleRupees, PhilippeTitou, Weasel2366).

In the projected top 128, there are an additional 10 players without 5 non-zero scores: 1 with only 3 races (Gyraxo), 3 with only 4 races (kr3z, West0pher, soli), and 6 with some forfeits that are currently counting towards their score (DgBarca, kirkq, Scarlet, Tubamann, Koari, Aurelius).

The final benchmarks for top 64 and top 128 depend, in part, on whether or not these players choose to enter the last 4 qualifiers.

Here are the latest projections, as of Qualifier #14:

1. Fmz - 4096
2. Icola - 4014
3. Sponge - 3979
4. Marco - 3934
5. MrMario7788 - 3923
6. Goomba - 3865
7. kariossa - 3863
8. CheckRaise - 3858
9. SeYsEy - 3840
10. Alexis - 3836
11. favio94 - 3829
12. SariasObject - 3817
13. Riley - 3800
14. WTHH - 3800
15. Elagatua - 3796
16. Vodzilla - 3787
17. mrmartin - 3769
18. Cfalcon - 3763
19. JustSam - 3760
20. YUSoEpic - 3738
21. FantaTanked - 3727
22. Skyward - 3718
23. ArthurOudini - 3717
24. Xef199221 - 3710
25. iceninetm - 3708
26. Melrose - 3701
27. Exodus - 3692
28. Flouflouche - 3692
29. Ryuja - 3677
30. Gogeta - 3661
31. Cokotier - 3649
32. Sora - 3646
33. WoodenBarrel - 3645
34. Jaybone25 - 3630
35. Narcottic - 3626
36. rockchalk - 3622
37. Aosuna - 3620
38. HaydeyPatatey - 3609
39. juwk - 3602
40. docheaps - 3594
41. Yoyocanari - 3593
42. gsk8 - 3589
43. drooness - 3586
44. Cola - 3585
45. Nopons - 3571
46. DylanMeeble - 3569
47. BrotinderDose - 3558
48. Engel - 3546
49. sanzeau - 3544
50. Kevin_818 - 3536
51. Xopar - 3507
52. Stuck_man - 3505
53. Kirox - 3500
54. RyuuKane - 3490
55. PurpleRupees - 3486
56. z3ph1r - 3478
57. alfalfa - 3458
58. Braaks - 3454
59. PhilippeTitou - 3441
60. Gavaroni - 3426
61. DareDevinX - 3421
62. Hamsda - 3415
63. TomPouce - 3415
64. Weasel2366 - 3410
~~~
65. Spikevegeta - 3387
66. Alaixo - 3386
67. TheAranaut - 3376
68. DubuDeccer - 3371
69. T-RIS - 3369
70. DoitiEtok - 3361
71. Challensois_ - 3355
72. TheLightswoord - 3354
73. 2dos - 3351
74. kr3z - 3345
75. DgBarca - 3324
76. Cloudike - 3322
77. zorro275 - 3319
78. VidyaJames - 3316
79. Markars - 3312
80. Oneshot013 - 3312
81. MisterKarp - 3302
82. NewSoupVi - 3298
83. EarlWeird - 3292
84. KCNecro - 3288
85. West0pher - 3287
86. kirkq - 3247
87. Bossage - 3247
88. Chopthetank - 3242
89. Death King II - 3233
90. Letsklay - 3230
91. Scarlet - 3226
92. KINGsamps0n - 3222
93. Keipi3 - 3218
94. Jimbo - 3214
95. Tubamann - 3207
96. Gyraxo - 3204
97. emosoda - 3200
98. Chimpanreeve - 3200
99. xenoh - 3197
100. Oximan - 3187
101. Koari - 3187
102. Willx48 - 3185
103. Alaszun - 3180
104. soli - 3175
105. Phant - 3175
106. papy_grant - 3172
107. AlexanderHD - 3171
108. WeightyWords - 3145
109. tanjo3 - 3142
110. BearKofca - 3140
111. Rafa - 3126
112. azder - 3119
113. SlyRyD - 3110
114. Menou - 3104
115. Hellknight86 - 3097
116. prieR57 - 3086
117. DeadlyThunder - 3077
118. BruZZler - 3075
119. Aurelius - 3068
120. incoherent - 3067
121. jaxstronomy - 3063
122. MILLEKA__ - 3062
123. Chuckles501 - 3059
124. Rahylia - 3054
125. Kydams - 3054
126. baelnog - 3052
127. Jagger - 3043
128. Bread-kun - 3028
~~~
129. LeviBelvedere - 3024
130. Flee - 3018
131. Tjongejonge_ - 3011
132. Blueseangfh2 - 3006
133. Xuross - 3006
134. SDGShawn - 3006
135. barbu - 2984
136. ScorpiosFinalGambit - 2981
137. UofCWildcat - 2973
138. Aughoti - 2972
139. Lefty - 2967
140. Digdig - 2960
141. Aranha - 2951
142. Egodev - 2950
143. PandaCerise - 2937
144. MasterAleks - 2934
145. The Specialize - 2934
146. HasCoffee - 2931
147. xYoshi9100x - 2927
148. Spounsh - 2917
149. ACreativeUsername - 2916
150. TeaGrenadier - 2907


Like last time, I'll cover the top 64 first.  First, the players that are currently outside of the projected top 64, but could move up with above-average scores in their final race(s):

Alaixo 3386 (66th) -> 3431
T-RIS 3369 (69th) -> 3423
DoitiEtok 3361 (70th) -> 3481.5
TheLightswoord 3354 (72nd) -> 3535
2dos 3351 (73rd) -> 3442.5
kr3z 3345 (74th) -> 3470.5
Markars 3312 (79th) -> 3441
EarlWeird 3292 (83rd) -> 3414
KCNecro 3288 (84th) -> 3535.5
West0pher 3287 (85th) -> 3507.5
Chopthetank 3242 (88th) -> 3439.5
Scarlet 3226 (91st) -> 3443.5
soli 3175 (104th) -> 3439.5


Next, the safety ratings for people who are currently in the top 64.  We do finally have our first races who are mathematically impossible to bump out.  Also, the "basically guaranteed" list is getting quite long (and is nearly half of the 64 available spots).

Lock for top 64: 3rd place and up (3915+ points)
Icola
Sponge
Marco

Basically guaranteed: 30th place and up (3609+ points)
MrMario7788
kariossa
SeYsEy
Alexis
SariasObject
Riley
favio94
Goomba
mrmartin
Cfalcon
Xef199221
JustSam
YUSoEpic
Melrose
FantaTanked
Exodus
CheckRaise
ArthurOudini
Elagatua
Gogeta
Fmz
WoodenBarrel
Skyward
Sora
Vodzilla
Flouflouche
HaydeyPatatey

Very likely: 41st place and up (3504+ points)
Cokotier
juwk
rockchalk
docheaps
Cola
drooness
Jaybone25
gsk8
Nopons
Aosuna
Yoyocanari

Likely: 51st place and up (3410+ points)
Narcottic
RyuuKane
BrotinderDose
Kevin_818
DylanMeeble
z3ph1r
alfalfa
sanzeau
Kirox
Gavaroni


Next, some data on the top 128 for Challenge Cup!  The predictor calculates safety ratings (Lock/Basically Guaranteed/Very Likely/Likely) for the top 128.  I have largely ignored everything but Likely in these write-ups, due to the significant overlap with the top 64.  However, we are starting to see some separation, so here are the delineations for those groups:

Lock for top 128: 20th place and up (3670+ points)
Basically guaranteed: 63rd place and up (3299+ points)
Very likely: 84th place and up (3142+ points)
Likely: 99th place and up (3028+ points)


Finally, we have the folks that are outside the projected top 128, but capable of getting in with above-average (for them) scores:

LeviBelvedere 3024 (129th) -> 3074.5
Flee 3018 (130th) -> 3122.5
Tjongejonge_ 3011 (131st) -> 3270.5
Xuross 3006 (133rd) -> 3129.5
SDGShawn 3006 (134th) -> 3043
barbu 2984 (135th) -> 3144
Aughoti 2972 (138th) -> 3189
Lefty 2967 (139th) -> 3057.5
Digdig 2960 (140th) -> 3089
Egodev 2950 (142nd) -> 3171
PandaCerise 2937 (143rd) -> 3040.5
The Specialize 2934 (144th) -> 3099
HasCoffee 2931 (146th) -> 3186
xYoshi9100x 2927 (147th) -> 3270.5
Spounsh 2917 (148th) -> 3125
Synii 2906 (151st) -> 3036.5
Silverytp 2562 (174th) -> 3091


Links to past pastes:
Qual #12: https://pastebin.com/9BadM6uP
Qual #10: https://pastebin.com/NDaNSRJr
Qual #8: https://pastebin.com/3KZiMadd
Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv

S4 comparisons (so you can judge the accuracy of the prediction algorithm for yourself):
Projected benchmarks after each qualifier: https://pastebin.com/GQsh2qSu
Projected rank and score of the top 64 after each qualifier: http://bombch.us/DRr-