Moving on

I just got a 1:45:48 in Red, which is the WR and probably my best executed speedrun ever. And I don't feel particularly happy about it. The temporary high wasn't worth all the negatives that preceded it: frustration of the RNG grind, fear of failing manips every day, lack of progress with my execution and stream numbers, and so on. This is probably a strong sign that it's time to move on from the Pokemon grind and focus more on routing, other games, and other things in life.

Gen 1-3 Pokemon speedruns were really fun from 2014 to 2016. Then RNG manipulation happened. This brought about a few changes that made the games significantly more frustrating and less enjoyable:

1. The main method of routing changed. Before manip, it was messing around with the game on emulator, connecting the dots, making spreadsheets to evaluate potential time saves, etc. After manip, it was programming bots to find ways to manipulate the RNG. Old-school routing still had a place, but it was reduced, and it wouldn't get you anywhere in the competitive scene if you couldn't manip (or get someone to make manips for you). I don't know how to program and don't think I'd enjoy it as much as old-school routing.

2. The importance of runner knowledge greatly decreased. You can be a top Gen 1 runner these days with little to no knowledge about badge boosts, DSum, trainer AI, and other mechanics that were essential for top runners in 2014-2016. Just learn the manipulations and menuing techniques, practice, then grind until you finish a run. Since RNG manipulation removes stat and encounter variance, your knowledge is rarely tested.

3. The importance of physical traits greatly increased. Mashing speed, reaction time, hand-eye coordination, etc. They're important for two reasons: 1) RNG manipulations can be made as difficult as humans can execute them, and 2) Manip makes other variables, such as reset RNG and runner knowledge, less important. Some people have excellent physical traits, while most are average. The average folks probably need to practice 5 times as much to achieve the same skill level as the gifted ones.

4. Grinding to meet your goal time simply means brute-forcing the same run until you finish without dying (main Pokemon fainting). The odds range from 1% (Red) to 15% (Gold). The RNG manip routes we use in 2018 require taking huge risks even if your run is amazing. So it's really hard to get attached to a run or make intelligent decisions based on your pace. Runners still do this, but not to the same degree as in 2014-2016.

5. It takes significantly more mental effort to finish a good run. Normally this would be a good thing in a speedrun, but when your odds of finishing are 1%? Your brain has no choice but to conserve energy, and that's when mistakes happen. You can't blame yourself, but you're going to lose runs to it. Prior to manip, runners would zone out while resetting for good stats, then focus upon getting them.

6. Manipulations can fail even if you execute them correctly. This one is just unfortunate, because many non-Pokemon games have RNG manipulations that are guaranteed to work assuming the same inputs. The people who programmed Gen 1-3 Pokemon games did speedrunners many favors, but this isn't one of them. Losing runs to IGT0 (Gen 1-2), RTC0 (Gen 2) or untrackable RNG advances (Gen 3) is extremely frustrating.

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A combination of the above factors has made me realize that my time as a top Pokemon runner is limited. There are already several runners who are much more talented than I am. Nearly all other runners have better relationships with PSR programmers than I do. My years of studying the games and acquiring knowledge don't matter. And I am an extremely competitive person who sees little to no value in holding second- and third-place times on the leaderboard. If I continue aiming for first-place times, I'll be relying on luck, and that's not fulfilling.

In spite of these issues, the Pokemon speedrunning community has grown dramatically in the past two years. Many people prefer running with manip, and that's fine. I'm happy to have contributed all that I did, and my only regret is not achieving a healthier balance between speedrunning and real life. I should have been able to predict this landscape, and the emptiness that comes with it (what do I do now?).

Time to search for new speedgames. I'll still run Pokemon too, just not the same way. Thanks for reading.  :)