Lecture intro
00:00
The US arming Pakistan during the Cold War poisoned relations with India, and it's essential to consider the long-term effects of such actions
00:07


The US government requires a disclaimer for the ideas presented, which do not necessarily represent those of the US government or its departments
00:41


The story revolves around three protagonists (Russia, the US, and China) trying to influence India and Pakistan, with a focus on intervening in someone else's problems and limited wars
01:07



Mao at war, 1949-51
02:43
Mao's conquest of Tibet in 1950 was a pivotal decision, as it provided China with access to significant mineral resources and a strategic location
03:02


China built a series of road systems through Tibet between 1950 and 1957, with the Western route being the most important for maintaining control
03:42


The Western route also provides a pincer on Xinjiang and allows China to control the disputed areas between China and India
04:26



Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts
06:12
The 1971 War led to a civil war in Pakistan, resulting in the loss of East Pakistan, now known as Bangladesh
06:17.


The United States allied with Pakistan through the Baghdad Pact, providing a significant military aid treaty, which horrified India's prime minister
06:26.


The pact poisoned US relations with India for the duration of the Cold War
07:16.



Sino-Soviet Split
09:30
Mao had to keep quiet and seek Soviet aid until he obtained atomic weapons in 1964
07:31.


After detonating an atomic weapon, Mao told the Russians that there were too many places occupied by the Soviet Union
07:54.


The Russians had their own gripes against the Chinese, including the refusal to allow them to keep certain treaty ports
09:51.


The Sino-Soviet border war of 1969 broke out during the Vietnam War
11:53.



Alliances
12:35
Stalin didn't think much of Nehru, but Khrushchev thought India was important to counterbalance China
13:20.


Nehru favored socialist economic policies and felt more in common with Russia than the United States
13:30.


India was non-aligned and treated China generously, recognizing China in 1950 and signing a friendship treaty in 1954
14:08.


India recognized Chinese sovereignty over Tibet under international law, which is permanent and cannot be legally revoked
14:38.



The Sino-Indian War
15:14
Road building between 1950 and 1957 led to the Sino-Indian War, with China taking control of the Aksai Chin Plateau
15:19


The Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, which further strained relations between India and China
15:55


The war resulted in India's defeat, leading to a significant increase in its military strength and a lasting sense of anger towards China
17:40



Soviet peace in India-Pakistan
20:32
Following the Sino-Indian War, Pakistan invaded India through the south and attempted to take control of Kashmir, but was ultimately unsuccessful
20:51


The United States imposed a double arms embargo on both India and Pakistan, which had a greater impact on Pakistan due to its dependence on US military aid
21:14


The Soviet Union brokered the Tashkent Declaration, ending the war, but Pakistan emerged worse off, while India restored its reputation on the battlefield
21:53



US Aid and Alliances
22:32
The US had bases in Norway, West Germany, Turkey, Pakistan, Japan, and a listening base at Bodur during the period, with the US paying Pakistan a lot of money for the use of their base
22:41.


The US-Pakistan relationship was strained due to the US freezing arms in the 1965 War and the shooting down of a U2 plane over the Soviet Union
22:58.


Pakistan's leader, I Khan, felt that the US had betrayed them and that their security hazards and political liabilities had increased due to the US's actions
24:07.



The difference with WWII
26:46
The World War II Allies were able to form an effective alliance despite having mutually exclusive goals due to the common existential threat of Hitler
27:10.


In contrast, the Axis powers had different primary enemies and theaters of interest, which led to them fighting parallel wars and ultimately being defeated
27:47.


When analyzing alliances, it's essential to identify the primary enemy and existential threat of each country to understand their motivations and potential for cooperation
27:59.



The geopolitical map in 1904
30:41
Pakistan is strategically located near Russia, making it crucial for the US to have listening posts to track Russian missiles and access to Afghanistan
30:46.


The US has a bumpy relationship with Pakistan, with periods of cooperation and frustration due to differing primary enemies and shifting interests
31:10.


The US ignores human rights and nuclear proliferation issues in Pakistan when it needs the country's cooperation
32:26.



The 1971 Bangladeshi war for independence
33:28
Pakistan's dominant ethnic group, the Punjabis, dominate the army and overturn the election won by Bengalis in East Pakistan, leading to a humanitarian crisis
33:51.


The US remains silent on the crisis, prioritizing its efforts to establish relations with China and cooperate against the Soviet Union
34:17.


India is affected by the crisis, with millions of refugees fleeing to the country, and seeks US help in resolving the issue, but is instead blamed for the war
35:01.


The US's handling of the crisis leads India to sign a military pact with Russia and upgrade its relationship with Vietnam, upsetting the US
35:23.



The US alienates Indira Gandhi
35:42
The US initially doesn't prioritize India, with no Indian studies programs in universities, and instead focuses on Pakistan, which is seen as essential after the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979
35:43.


The US offers Pakistan $400 million in aid, which is later increased to $3.2 billion by the Reagan administration, making the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) incredibly powerful
36:19.


The ISI allocates money to insurgents in Afghanistan, including anti-western groups, and also uses some of the funds to support separatist movements in Kashmir, which will have negative consequences for India
36:53.



The cost of war for Pakistan
38:24
Pakistan's wars with India, including the 1965 and 1971 wars, have resulted in significant costs and losses, including the loss of Bangladesh and half of its population
38:50.


The wars have also led to sanctions and a decline in US aid, making Pakistan's problems worse
39:18.


The opportunity costs of these wars are significant, with Pakistan missing out on potential trade and economic benefits with India
39:30.



India's problems
39:48
India's Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has a strained relationship with US President Richard Nixon, which affects US-India relations
39:50.


India's non-aligned stance during the Korean War and its refusal to support the US have led to resentment from Pakistan and the US
40:21.


India's own actions, including its heavy-handed treatment of the Kashmir insurgency, have contributed to its problems
41:31.



China's problems
41:40
China's interactions with India are complicated, with the Sino-Indian War resulting in a permanent enemy for China
41:44.


China's failure to team up with India has meant that it has missed out on potential leverage in shaping the global order
41:59.


The 1971 war has led to a nuclear arms race in the region, with both India and Pakistan developing nuclear weapons
42:12.



Instruments of US power
43:30
The US brokered the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, which greatly benefited both India and Pakistan, but did not result in enduring gratitude from either country
44:27.


The US attempted to exercise diplomacy to settle differences between India and Pakistan, but it was unsuccessful due to false assumptions about the nature of their conflict
45:22.


The US provided economic aid to India, including 20% of its wheat crop during the 1967 famine, but this did not result in lasting gratitude from India
50:56.



Public Support and Economic Aid
48:57
The US publicly supported Portugal in its dispute with India over Goa, which made India angry
49:08.


The US refused to support India in the 1971 Bangladesh War, which also made India angry
49:27.


The US provided economic aid to India, but India preferred to receive aid from Russia and China
50:39.



Military Aid
52:32
The US provided military aid to Pakistan, which drove India to seek an alliance with Russia
53:09.


The US helped India after the 1962 war with China, which alienated Pakistan and led them to seek an alliance with China
53:18.


The US provided aid to the Pakistani ISI, which was diverted to support insurgency in Kashmir
53:39.



Carrier Battle Groups
54:13
The United States sent a carrier battle group into the Bay of Bengal during the 1971 war, which Pakistan saw as a threat
54:15


The US has a history of imposing sanctions and embargos, which did not stop nuclear proliferation in India and Pakistan
54:38


Pakistan was sanctioned for its nuclear program, while India had already conducted a nuclear test in 1974
54:59



Instruments of National Power
55:44
Trading off territory is an instrument of national power, as seen in Pakistan's actions in 1963
55:50


Funding insurgencies is another instrument of national power, used by the US, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan
56:10


The US funded the Tibetan insurgency between 1957 and 1961, but it was too late to be effective
56:45



Frozen Conflicts
58:20
Frozen conflicts, such as Kashmir, can be used to pin down an adversary and prevent them from taking action elsewhere
58:07


The Indians and Pakistanis have accused each other of funding insurgencies in different regions
58:26


Frozen conflicts can lead to increased bitterness, poverty, and economic stagnation, making problems more intractable
59:01



Strategy and Diplomacy
01:00:22
Common enemies cannot be conjured up, and alignments of interests should be carefully considered
01:00:27


Reassessing assumptions and changing one's mind is a sign of strength, not weakness
01:01:07


Recognizing certain problems as intractable and focusing on solvable issues is part of good strategy
01:01:30



Q&A begins
01:03:13
The US had to choose between India and Pakistan as an ally during the Cold War, and Pakistan's location was a critical factor in this decision
01:03:23.


The relationship between the US and India has changed, with India's primary adversary now being China, and the US also seeing China as a primary threat
01:04:20.


The US initially tried to be allies with both India and Pakistan, but India's location was not as strategic as Pakistan's for listening posts and other purposes
01:04:48.



The appeal of the USSR
01:05:03
The Soviet Union was an attractive example for decolonizing countries like India due to its perceived success in rebuilding and growth after World War I
01:05:05.


Marxism appealed to Indians who were disillusioned with British colonial rule and the wealth transfer from India to England
01:05:47.


However, the flaws in Marxist theory and the lack of liberty in communist practice were not immediately apparent to many Indians
01:06:37.


The Soviet Union's growth rates from the 1920s to 1940s were impressive, but this was largely due to rebuilding and catch-up growth
01:08:36.


The Soviet Union's inverted empire, where the periphery was more developed than the center, contributed to its economic problems and eventual collapse
01:09:22.



The last communist premier
01:10:08
Gorbachev was a true believer in communism, aiming to improve it through reforms
01:10:11


To understand Kremlinology, one must pay attention to what dictators say, as they often communicate their intentions to their populations
01:11:33


Reading primary sources, including those in the Russian language, and reading broadly are essential to understanding the subject
01:11:54



Understanding adversaries
01:12:15
Russia and China have territorial differences and historical issues, such as the Korean War and Stalin's concerns about a two-front war
01:12:42


The Sino-Soviet split was not inevitable, and the two communist parties had a falling out over specific issues
01:12:24



Analyzing international relations
01:14:10
The US government has experts in various departments, including the State Department and the CIA, who provide analysis and reports on international issues
01:14:25


Presidents and high-level bureaucrats receive daily reports on important global events
01:15:25


The US government has regional desks with experts who provide information and analysis on specific parts of the world
01:15:52



Counterfactual scenario: China and India cooperation
01:16:04
If China and India had worked together, the world order could have looked completely different, but the specifics of this counterfactual scenario are not elaborated upon in the provided text
01:16:09



India and China’s lost opportunity
01:16:14
A potential alliance between India and China was lost due to the Chinese Civil War, which could have led to a more productive relationship between the two nations
01:16:49


The Chinese Nationalists had a good relationship with India, sharing a desire for independence and respect for each other's cultures
01:16:31


The 1962 war made India realize that non-alignment was not a viable option, leading them to seek a big power ally and eventually develop nuclear weapons
01:17:56



The Cold War and its impact
01:18:30
The Cold War was not just a ideological conflict, but also involved significant bloodshed in the third world, with millions of people dying in various conflicts
01:22:21


The United States and the Soviet Union engaged in proxy wars, which led to increased casualties and destabilization in various regions
01:28:45


The Cold War also led to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, with India developing its own nuclear program in response to China's growing threat
01:18:17



Lessons from the Cold War
01:21:00
The Cold War shows that even the losers can decide when to end a war, as the Soviet Union did when they quit the conflict
01:20:50


The United States and other powers should be careful about intervening in conflicts, as it can lead to unintended consequences and overextension
01:23:01


The Cold War also highlights the importance of understanding other cultures and languages, with many scholars advocating for language proficiency in international relations
01:27:01



Miscalculations and mistakes
01:29:40
One of the biggest miscalculations of the Cold War was the United States' decision to depose democratically elected leaders, such as Mosaddegh in Iran and Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam
01:30:16


The United States also made a mistake by not allowing free elections in South Vietnam, which could have led to a more stable and anti-Chinese government
01:31:04


The McCarthy era also led to the purging of China experts, leaving the United States without a deep understanding of the region
01:31:20





Bismark’s cunning
01:58:36
Bismarck illustrates the value of having limited and unlimited objectives in war, with unlimited objectives being equivalent to regime change
01:58:48.


Bismarck's achievements show that royal families are not necessary for effective governance, as they can be incompetent
01:59:15.


Bismarck's strategy in the Danish War, Austro-Prussian War, and Franco-Prussian War led to the overthrow of the balance of power in Europe, making Prussia a central power
02:00:42.



Limited and Unlimited Objectives
02:01:14
In warfare, it is useful to think about limited versus unlimited objectives, with unlimited objectives being more extreme, such as eliminating a culture or government
02:01:28.


Putin has an unlimited objective in Ukraine, aiming to topple the government and eliminate Ukrainian culture, while Ukraine has a limited objective of getting Russia out of its territory
02:02:03.


In World War I, Germany did not have an unlimited objective, but the war still resulted in massive loss of life and the overthrow of governments
02:02:13.



Training US officers
02:03:37
The quality of people being trained has not improved or decreased over time, but rather consists of wonderful individuals who are the next generation of leaders
02:04:04


Other countries have equivalents of the US War College, where historians and strategists analyze archives for insights for current leaders
02:04:25


The Naval War College has had notable individuals, such as Alfred Thayer Mahan, who wrote enduring books on the importance of trade and power in the world
02:04:52



Background and Soviet studies
02:05:52
The field of Soviet studies was chosen due to growing up during the Cold War and being curious about the Russians, who were described as "totally evil"
02:06:08


The study of Soviet history led to an interest in China, Japan, and their relations with Russia
02:06:44


The decision to study other countries was also driven by a desire to avoid biased presumptions about the United States
02:07:04



Cruelty in Russian history
02:07:35
Russian history is marked by extreme cruelty, as seen in the Gulag Archipelago and the treatment of prisoners, guards, and civilians.
02:07:40


The Russian language itself reflects this coercive nature, with words like "Sila" meaning both strength and coercion.
02:08:31


This cruelty is deeply ingrained in Russian culture and has been observed by Europeans as far back as the 17th century.
02:10:30



The Cold War Project
02:10:52
A new project on the Cold War is being worked on, which will be a culmination of previous research spanning from 1917 to 1991.
02:10:58


The project will examine the strategies employed by the Russians and other players during the Cold War, and what worked and what didn't.
02:11:50


The project will be organized around concepts to understand the Cold War, including limited and unlimited war, primary adversary, and frozen conflict.
02:12:20