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If Eli Manning bid a sweet farewell Sunday to the New York Giants, what should we think about Philip Rivers' performance for the Los Angeles Chargers?

Rivers, famously traded for Manning during the 2004 draft, committed a season-high four turnovers in the Chargers' 39-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He has thrown 12 interceptions in his past five games, is entering the final two games of his contract and might have shifted the conversation from where he will play in 2020 to if.

We'll start with that heavy question in ESPN's Week 15 QB Awards, our Tuesday assessment of quarterback highs and lows using unique data culled from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats.


All three of Rivers' interceptions Sunday were on passes that traveled more than 20 air yards. Rivers hasn't been shy in his career about slinging the ball downfield into coverage, sometimes with poor results. But this season, that habit has bitten back hard. He has a total of eight interceptions on such throws, the most in a season since Rex Grossman threw nine while with the Washington Redskins in 2011.

Are those interceptions simply poor decisions? Are they a function of an offense that has undergone personnel and coaching turnover throughout the season? Do they suggest that Rivers has lost some zip on the ball? The Chargers -- or any other NFL team considering him as a 2020 starter -- will need to answer these questions.

Overall, his 21 turnovers rank third in the NFL, behind that of Jameis Winston and Kyle Allen. Rivers is on pace for by far the worst Total QBR (48.3) since the statistic was developed in 2006. When the name of a Hall of Fame candidate starts showing up alongside 'Grossman,' 'Winston' and 'Allen,' it's time to take notice.

At this point, the primary difference between Rivers and Manning is that the Giants drafted Manning's replacement last spring, when they picked Daniel Jones at No. 6 overall. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Chargers, projected by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to get the No. 10 overall pick, do the same in 2020.


There is almost no doubt that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is going to win NFL MVP. He deserves it. But that isn't going to stop me from pointing out, on a weekly basis if I must, that Wilson is routinely completing some of the league's most difficult passes.

The latest was a 19-yard touchdown throw to receiver DK Metcalf during the Seahawks' 30-25 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Once again, Wilson showed incredible touch in placing the ball down the sideline, where only his (closely guarded) receiver could catch it. He put enough air under the ball to keep it aloft for 1.97 seconds, allowing Metcalf to gain 1 yard of separation from Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson and make a leaping catch 1.1 yards from the sideline and 6 yards deep in the end zone.


- Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 15, 2019
The pass had a 14.8% chance to be complete, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, making it the most difficult connection of Week 15. It was one of two touchdown passes Wilson threw Sunday of at least 15 air yards, raising his total on such throws to 43 the past three seasons. That's 13 more than the next-highest quarterback ( Kirk Cousins, 30) in that period, another data point for the increasingly inarguable position that Wilson is the league's most effective deep thrower.


When the fourth quarter began Sunday night in Pittsburgh, the Steelers held a 10-7 lead over the Buffalo Bills. Soon, the Bills tied the game at 10. What happened next was head-scratching.

With the game on the line, and despite the healthy return of tailback James Conner, the Steelers turned to their rookie quarterback to try to lead them to victory. Hodges dropped back 20 times in the fourth quarter, including the first nine plays after the Bills tied the game. That decision led to two consecutive three-and-out possessions, as well as a pair of interceptions and two sacks. The Steelers didn't score again in a 17-10 loss.

Hodges has been impressive as a spot starter since he was promoted from the practice squad earlier this season, but it was still a surprise to see the Steelers ignore their running game and put the game in his hands. The Bills' defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the NFL's third-lowest QBR (45.2), and it's not as if they were loading up against the run and daring Hodges to throw.

The Bills aligned eight or more defenders in the box on only seven of the Steelers' 57 plays, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and not once in the fourth quarter. The Steelers still have a 43.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to FPI, but their fourth-quarter approach was one of the most baffling decisions of an otherwise overachieving season.


You'll be excused if you looked elsewhere for your high-level quarterback fix earlier this season, when Mahomes was sidelined by a knee injury. But here's something you should know about the 2018 MVP: Since he returned in Week 10, Mahomes' QBR of 76.3 is surpassed by that of no quarterback other than Jackson.

Sunday's 23-3 victory over the Denver Broncos marked Mahomes' seventh 300-plus-yard passing game of the season. He completed 10 passes that traveled at least 10 yards in the air, marking the third time he has done that in a game in 2019. The Broncos were largely unable to pressure him on a snowy day at Arrowhead Stadium, and Mahomes capitalized on nearly every clean pocket, completing 25 of 26 passes for 329 yards in those situations.

Mahomes' 300.5-yard average per game this season ranks fourth in the league, and his 77.9 Total QBR isn't far behind Jackson's (80.2). Mahomes isn't the 2019 MVP and might not be the runner-up in the voting, but he is finishing the season in a way that should scare his playoff opponents.


A week ago, a few of us were asked to project where Winston would play next season. I had a hard time believing that coach Bruce Arians would want any quarterback who commits as many turnovers as Winston, who leads the league with 29. But it's easy to see how alluring Winston might be to the Buccaneers' front office after watching him throw for 918 yards the past two weeks, including 458 and four touchdowns in a 38-17 victory over the Detroit Lions.

All four of Winston's touchdown passes came on throws that traveled at least 10 yards in the air, bringing his season total on such throws to an NFL-high 16. If nothing else, he has displayed an undeniable ability to make up quickly for his mistakes with big plays. According to the NFL, the Bucs lead the league in plays that impact win probability by at least 10%.

That's no way to win a championship and maybe not even to make the non-fantasy playoffs. But I'll be the first to admit that the Winston decision will be one of the NFL's most difficult this offseason.



Aaron Rodgers and the Packers slogged through a surprisingly sluggish game Sunday against the Redskins. On this, we should all agree. The only question is whether it was the result of poor quarterback play, inefficient playcalling, an insufficient supporting cast or some combination of the three.

With crumbling infrastructure around Rodgers, football intelligentsia tiptoed around direct criticism of the uniquely talented quarterback during the final two seasons of the Mike McCarthy era. His tendency to hold the ball well past initial reads can lead to big plays. But is there any way around holding Rodgers accountable for the Packers' poor offensive performance in their 20-15 victory over the Redskins? The Packers, after all, managed just six points after the first quarter and completed only one pass that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.

We'll start there for ESPN's Week 14 QB Awards, our Tuesday assessment of quarterback highs and lows using unique data culled from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats.


On paper, Rodgers was provided some hefty advantages against an undermanned Redskins defense. The Packers' offensive line turned in a dominating performance, allowing their running game to average 4.5 yards before encountering first contact and giving Rodgers 3.5 seconds before his average throw -- the longest in a game he has completed in the past four years.

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Overall, the Packers' line recorded the highest pass block win rate of any team in a game this season (92%), according to ESPN metrics that use NFL Next Gen Stats. Rodgers was pressured on only 24% of his dropbacks, his fourth-lowest total of the season. So, why didn't Rodgers roll up more than 181 passing yards? With all that time, why didn't he go downfield more often?

There are two possible answers here. The first would suggest that Rodgers either missed open receivers with regularity or didn't trust his arm to get the ball there. The second, of course, is that there weren't many open receivers. All we know from a data standpoint is that most of the receivers he did target were open. Accordingly to NFL Next Gen Stats, only 3.6% of his targets were into a tight window, with a defender within one yard of the target. That data, however, does not tell us how close defenders were to other receivers in the play.

What we can glean is that Rodgers was finding and throwing to receivers who had a good chance to make the catch. And an initial viewing of the game suggests that both answers apply.

On a first-down play with 1:55 remaining in the second quarter, for example, Rodgers overlooked multiple open receivers. As analyst Ben Fennell illustrated on Twitter, Rodgers instead tried to escape the pocket and was tackled 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Later, on a third down early in the third quarter, Rodgers threw the ball away on a rollout after what appeared to be an incorrect route by at least one receiver. The point is that it would be wrong to completely blame or exonerate Rodgers.

According to game charting from ESPN Stats & Information, 22.5% of his passes were off-target, the ninth-highest rate in Week 14. He certainly made some poor throws, and when you consider them in the context of Rodgers' 56.5 QBR since the start of the 2018 season, you realize he has objectively played at a lower level during the past two seasons than during the height of his career. He is like many other quarterbacks in the league: He needs help from his teammates, and not just some of them.


The Broncos have won both of Lock's starts this season, the second courtesy of the highest single-game QBR (98.7) for a quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. QBR tends to favor quarterbacks who stress defenses in other ways besides the passing game. Jackson does so with zone-read plays. So, it's worth noting that Lock took off only three times and gained 15 yards in the Broncos' rout of the Texans on Sunday.

So what did Lock do to merit this week's QBR? Most notably, he was exceptional against a variety of defenses the Texans used.

In building a 31-3 halftime lead for the Broncos, Lock was 8-of-9 on passes against the blitz and 4-of-5 when he was under duress. He also completed 4 of 5 passes that traveled more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage and made plays when the Texans played back in coverage, shredding their four-man pass rush for 14 completions and three touchdowns on 16 attempts.

Of course, it's only fair to note that the Texans entered the game ranked No. 21 in defensive QBR (54.0), having surrendered the fifth-most touchdown passes (25) in the league through 13 weeks. But they had stifled the Patriots seven days before. I know you want me to conclude that Lock has shown potential to reach 'infinity and beyond,' in homage to the 'Toy Story' character after whom he modeled Sunday's celebration. But after two starts, let's just say Lock has given Broncos fans a reason for optimism at the end of a lost season.


Mayfield was shamed into apologizing Sunday, shortly after he implied that the Browns' medical staff had mishandled receiver Odell Beckham Jr.'s sports hernia injury in training camp. But while his comments might have been poorly timed, overshadowing a victory that kept the Browns on the fringe of the playoff picture, they brought necessary attention to a mostly misunderstood part of the NFL injury landscape.

NFL teams fanatically minimize public information about the physical condition of players, in part for liability issues but mostly for competitive reasons. Teams believe the fewer details available about a player's injuries, the better. This approach does a grave disservice to players, whose performances are rarely seen in the proper context with their health. The Browns had referred to Beckham's injury as a 'hip' or 'groin' since training camp, but it wasn't until Sunday that multiple reports identified it as a sports hernia.

Beckham's 59-catch, two-touchdown season makes a lot more sense when you realize he has been playing through an injury that ultimately will require surgery to correct. And in his case, as Mayfield's comments point out, there was a point during the summer where a decision was made to forgo that surgery and avoid missing games. Such decisions can be enormously frustrating to players, who are trying to help their teams even though their performance will likely be compromised with no public explanation.

Mayfield almost certainly was trying to use his platform to back up a teammate. The message might have come out at the wrong time, but generally speaking, we need more public discussion about the health of football players -- not less.


Wilson might have lost ground to Baltimore's Jackson in the MVP race, but he is still completing an absurd number of passes that require a high level of precision. His 35-yard throw Sunday night to receiver DK Metcalf was the latest example.

DK Metcalf with the 35-yard catch down the sideline! @dkm14 #Seahawks

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- NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2019
On the play, Russell drifted left in the pocket and then fired a dart down the left sideline on third-and-22. Metcalf was 1.3 yards away from the sideline and surrounded by two Rams defenders when he caught the ball. The play had a 16.2% completion probability, making it the most difficult connection of Week 14.

Overall this season, Wilson has added 5.3% to his expected completion rate, the second most for quarterbacks who have started the majority of the season. He is also responsible for four of the 14 most difficult throws of the season, a group for which Sunday's dime to Metcalf does not even qualify.



Tom Brady and the Patriots have played five prime-time games this season. But none has provided more insight into Brady's ongoing frustration with the team's offense than Sunday night's 28-22 loss to the Texans.

NBC's cameras caught Brady's extended 'pep talk' toward a group of receivers on the bench. The apparent gist: Do a better job of getting open. ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky also interpreted a discussion between Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to reveal that receiver Phillip Dorsett II had missed a double-move signal, leading to what otherwise looked like a bad overthrow in the second quarter.

That's where we'll start ESPN's Week 13 QB Awards, our Tuesday assessment of quarterback highs and lows using unique data culled from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats.


A first glance at the numbers would suggest that Brady's accuracy has slumped in his 20th NFL season. He ranks No. 29 in completion rate (61.1%), and ESPN Stats & Information's video charters have credited him with an overthrow or underthrow on 21.1% of his passes, a higher rate than every NFL quarterback except Josh Allen and Jameis Winston.

Brady was off target on 24.4% of his passes against the Texans. But how many of those incompletions were truly the result of poorly thrown balls? And how many are caused by receivers running the wrong route or simply falling short of Brady's exacting standards for positioning?

Orlovsky's analysis pointed toward one such instance of the latter, but based on Brady's sideline reaction, it likely wasn't the only one. Overall, Brady threw into tight windows -- defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as a target who had less than one yard of separation from the nearest defender -- on 27.7% of his passes against the Texans. That was the second-highest rate for any quarterback in Week 13.

There's no doubt that, like any quarterback, Brady merits some blame for the performance of the offense. His third-down completion rate of 53%, which includes an off-target rate of 30%, is the second lowest in the NFL. Third down is when elite quarterbacks pull their team beyond the sticks, and not all of those incompletions can be blamed on the players around him. But as is often the case in football, the answers aren't as simple as they seem.


Unlike Brady, Allen doesn't play often in prime time. So you can forgive much of the viewing public for its surprise that Allen played a really good game in the Bills' 26-15 victory over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. Most of the attention centered around a physical fourth-down rushing conversion, but in some ways it was also the best passing performance of his career.

Allen set career highs in completion rate (79.2%), yards per attempt (10.5) and passer rating (120.7), albeit against a Cowboys defense that has intercepted only four passes this season and rarely challenges opposing passers. Allen also rushed for a touchdown, in the process becoming the fourth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to accumulate at least five passing and rushing touchdowns in one month.

Let's be clear about who Allen is, and isn't, at this stage. The numbers tell us he has rebounded from a horrible start to put himself above the replacement level. In Weeks 1 through 5 this season, Allen ranked No. 31 (of 34) quarterbacks in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (minus-24.8). In Weeks 7 to 13, he has ranked No. 16 (of 36) with a plus-6.7 DVOA.

That doesn't put Allen into any sort of discussion about elite NFL quarterbacks. It does, however, inform those who don't see many of his games -- and that's most of you -- that he has made substantial progress in his second season.


At the end of a long day in which he would take seven sacks, Allen had a chance to complete a remarkable fourth-quarter comeback. Instead, he left us all wondering about his eyesight.

The Panthers, trailing 29-21 with 27 seconds remaining, faced fourth-and-3 from the Redskins' 3-yard line. The Panthers put three receivers on the right side of the line, then motioned a fourth -- running back Christian McCaffrey -- to that side. Suffice it to say, the majority of Allen's possible targets were on that side.

Allen took the shotgun snap and initially looked at the one receiver, DJ Moore, who was split out in single coverage to the left. Moore was covered, so Allen turned to his right. At that moment, receiver Jarius Wright broke wide open toward the sideline. One quick flip likely would have produced a touchdown and a chance to tie the game with a two-point conversion. At one point, NFL Next Gen Stats measured more than nine yards between Wright and the closest Redskins defender.

But Allen turned away toward the middle of the field and never looked his way again, and instead began a 23-yard retreat that ended in a sack and lost fumble.

Jarius Wright (13) had over 9 yards of separation at this moment on the Panthers' final offensive play.

(Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/uLkcQWfrdt

- Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 1, 2019
A week ago, I added my voice to the chorus that has suggested the Panthers use Allen as at least a short-term starter next season if they move on from Cam Newton. Just a few days later, I'm not so sure.


Yes, we're talking about the same Nick Foles who was benched Sunday -- and now for Week 14, and perhaps for the rest of the season -- in favor of rookie Gardner Minshew II. But before all that happened, Foles floated a perfect 39-yard pass in the first quarter down the left sideline to receiver Dede Westbrook, who was 0.9 yards away from the sideline when he pulled in the ball. The play had a completion probability of 20.7%, the lowest for any completed pass thrown in Week 13.

Go crazy.@DedeTHEGreat11 | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/yYb7mxhSou

- #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) December 1, 2019
Foles, of course, threw an interception two plays later, and Minshew replaced him to start the second half of a 28-11 loss. Jaguars coach Doug Marrone announced Monday that Minshew will regain the starting job, putting Foles' future in Jacksonville in jeopardy.

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There's no doubt Foles had had a rough go since returning from a broken collarbone. The Jaguars are 0-3 in his starts, and his 27.9 QBR ranks No. 27 in the league during that period. But Sunday's dime is a reminder of what Foles can do when he has a clean pocket. He used 2.77 seconds to wait for Westbrook to spring open. But even then, the closest Buccaneers defender to Foles was 2.3 yards away, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Since he returned in Week 11, Foles has been forced to either throw or leave the pocket after 2.30 seconds, less time than all but one quarterback over that period. Minshew is better equipped to deal with poor protection, but if this is it for Foles in Jacksonville, I'm comfortable saying he never got a true chance.


Any analysis of Brissett's seemingly brutal performance on Sunday must follow a similar path to that of his former teammate in New England. How much of it was Brissett? And how much of it was due to a severe personnel shortage at receiver?

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ESPN Stats & Information credited Brissett with a career-high 10 overthrows in a 31-17 loss to the Titans. Both of his interceptions came on overthrows. And eight of them came in the second half, as the Colts were outscored 24-7.

It's only fair, of course, to point out that Brissett was playing without pass-catchers T.Y. Hilton, Chester Rogers, Eric Ebron and Parris Campbell. And don't forget that Brissett hasn't had veteran receiver Devin Funchess since Week 1. Even the Colts' top running back, Marlon Mack, was missing from the lineup.

The difference between Brissett and Brady, of course, is that Brissett hasn't earned any benefit of the doubt. As he heads into the final month of his first season as a starter, Brissett ranks No. 22 (of 31 qualified players) in QBR at 48.2. That leaves the Colts facing a more difficult decision than they might have anticipated after the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck: Do they need to find a new starter for 2020 or can they give Brissett a clean-enough canvas to convince them he should return?



It was Baker Mayfield's turn Sunday to take his whacks at the Dolphins' awful pass defense. He didn't disappoint and, in fact, extended a trend that might yet save the story of his season.

For the first time this campaign, Mayfield capitalized on having one of the NFL's top receiving duos at his disposal, throwing two touchdowns to Jarvis Landry and one to Odell Beckham Jr. in the Browns' 41-24 romp. Mayfield was decisive and accurate throughout and finished with a 93.4 Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), the league's highest in Week 12. Regardless of how the Browns' season ends, he has a chance to leave 2019 with a positive spin on his long-term outlook.

We'll take a closer look at Mayfield in ESPN's Week 12 QB Awards, our Tuesday assessment of quarterback highs and lows using unique data culled from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats. Come along for the ride.


The Dolphins came after Mayfield, blitzing him on 45.7% of dropbacks. But they pressured him on only 12.5% of those plays, in large part because Mayfield released the ball in an average of 2.34 seconds. That's a quantitative way of saying he was decisive in the face of extra pass-rushers and didn't hold the ball unnecessarily long.

It has been well-documented that Mayfield struggled to recognize defensive looks and make quick decisions. Before Sunday, he took an average of 2.70 seconds to get rid of the ball against the blitz, the eighth-highest mark in the NFL to that point. He had no such trouble against the Dolphins' extra rushers, completing 10 of 15 passes for 113 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Sure, Mayfield sliced up an undermanned and overmatched defense. Miami has allowed an NFL-high 31.5 points per game, and opponents have lit up its blitz for 14 touchdown passes on 138 dropbacks, the highest ratio in the league. But regardless of opponent, it's undeniable that Mayfield has taken some significant strides after a horrendous start to the season.

Since the start of Week 8, he has the league's fifth-best QBR (68.1), resulting in nine touchdown passes, two interceptions and 245.0 yards per game. Most significantly, the Browns have won three straight in that stretch. Much like in his rookie season, Mayfield is playing his best in the second half of the season. This time, that has lifted the Browns into the playoff discussion.


No matter what you think of Jones' arm or mobility, the rookie's ball protection has been historically bad. Jones fumbled Sunday when sacked by the Bears' Khalil Mack, raising his league-leading total to 14 in 10 games. That ratio of 1.4 per game ranks among the highest in modern NFL history. According to research by Evan Kaplan of ESPN Stats & Information, a player has fumbled at a higher rate only four times since 1970 (minimum 10 games played). The Giants have recovered four of Jones' fumbles. But the problem is coughing up the ball, not failing to recover it.

In theory, quarterbacks can minimize their fumbles by raising their carriage point and keeping two hands on the ball. But part of avoiding fumbles, especially in the pocket, is the instinct to protect the ball when pressured. Of the three players with higher 10-game ratios than Jones', two -- Kerry Collins and Daunte Culpepper -- finished their careers ranked among the top 15 in fumbles by quarterbacks in league history. The third, Tony Banks, didn't play in enough games to get there.

Given Jones' penchant for putting it on the ground this season, the Giants have reason to be concerned about the extent to which he can fix this problem.


Question: In the NFL's passing era, how does a quarterback drop back 41 times, make 33 throws, complete 20 of them and finish with 104 total yards?

Answer: When the opposing defense is so overwhelming, both with its pass-rush and in coverage, that the quarterback is left to check down play after play.

That's what happened Sunday to Rodgers and the Packers in their 37-8 loss to the 49ers. Rodgers threw 42.4% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Only seven of his attempts traveled farther than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and all seven fell incomplete. NFL Next Gen Stats calculated his expected completion percentage at 71.8%, higher than all but one Week 12 starter. Incredibly, Rodgers' 20 completions traveled a combined minus-3 yards downfield.

It's easy to wonder why Rodgers didn't simply chuck it deep more often. But he clearly felt compelled to throw earlier than he wanted to. When he wasn't taking one of five sacks, Rodgers' average time before throwing was 2.40 seconds, the quickest of any quarterback in Week 12.


In our midseason quarterback awards, we noted that no NFL quarterback was functioning with a higher degree of difficulty than Wilson. The expected completion rate of his throws (60.9%) was among the lowest in the league, and the differential with his actual completion rate (7.3%) was among the highest.

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That trend has continued into the second half of the season and was particularly evident in Week 12, when it appeared that Wilson had a tough day during a 17-9 victory over the Eagles. He completed just over half of his passes, took six sacks and fell from No. 1 to No. 4 in this season's QBR rankings.

But it's important to take into consideration the difficulty of his attempts.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wilson's expected completion rate was 49.9%, lowest in Week 12. His average pass traveled 14.5 yards in the air, the NFL's highest of the week, and 23% of his attempts were thrown into tight windows. For better or worse, Wilson wasn't looking for the easy throw.

Meanwhile, two of his completions were among the four most difficult connections of the week. One was his 33-yard scoring strike to receiver Malik Turner, which Wilson fired into a window that was bracketed by the back line of the end zone (4.8 yards away) and two defenders within a yard of the ball.

A little @Seahawks trickery in Philly.

TOUCHDOWN, @DangeRussWilson to Malik Turner on the double pass! #Seahawks #SEAvsPHI

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- NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2019
The other was a 38-yard pass to receiver Tyler Lockett that converted a third down in the fourth quarter and let the Seahawks bleed an additional minute off the clock. Wilson put the ball over Lockett's shoulder in a way that Eagles cornerback Jalen Mills couldn't touch it, even though Mills was less than a yard away, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

This season, it has been difficult to avoid campaigning for president of The Russell Wilson Fan Club. But here's the moral of story: From a passing perspective, this was no off-game for the Seahawks' star.