I have been very interested in following the 2019-nCoV in China, because I have lots of friend there, who are now in quarantine cities and are not allowed to leave their house. I talk to them almost every day on WeChat and hear horrible stories directly from the people who see it, including videos of them going shopping.

Here is my summary commentary on 2019-nCoV.

It's very difficult to get any solid truth from the current fog of events, misinformation, denial and coverup. One has to follow all sources of information, not just official government announcements. Consider they all lie, and try to piece things together. Videos and photos are more reliable sources than text, but can also be faked or misrepresented. The following is just what I conclude seems to be the situation.
Bo be continued ...

I have talked much with my medical friends in the USA and rest of the world for solutions and we have come up with possibilities.
But that is subject for a different email.

May be you have time to read and give me your opinion on my points.
And how do you kill a virus permanently is a very valid question.

Daddy


1) Overblown
I no longer think the story is overblown. I have concluded the situation is MUCH worse than official figures from China claim. The Chinese gov is in full panic mode, and flailing around trying to deal with an impossible disaster. Not helped by being Communist, with the usual types of Centralist, authoritarian, response patterns.
I also don't expect Western governments to perform much better, if there is similar spread outside China.

2) Virus survival
The survival time of this virus on surfaces is unknown. It might be as typical for 'flu', but considering other factors, it might not.
It is possible to survive surfaces for weeks.

3) Name
"2019-nCoV" is the medical name, and is short for 'Novel Corona Virus.' Corona virus as a class is common colds and flu, so what does it take for virologists to consider this one 'novel'? We do not have an answer for this.

4) Bioweapon
It is very clearly an engineered bioweapon. The genome has been fully sequenced, and contains multiple coding sequences that can't have resulted from anything other than gene engineering in a lab.
But  which biolab was responsible?

5) Surface building clusters
The virus surface binding clusters, resulting from some of the engineered code, happen to bind to specific lung cell surface receptors that are far more numerous in people of Asian genetic heritage than non-Asian.
In other words: It is highly selective, far more infective for Asians than non-Asian.
Such race-specific targeted bioweapons have been known to be possible and do exist for many years already.
This may be the first time one got into the wild.

6) Immune System Suppressor
The virus also contains code for substances that suppress immune response. Which explains a very unusual feature with many victims. Some show virtually no symptoms and don't even feel sick, until they suddenly collapse and may die within minutes. Reason: It's the body's immune response to a viral infection that makes you feel sick, get a fever, etc. With this one, in some cases the immune system is suppressed, giving no reaction until the infection is massive.
This is how come there are videos of people suddenly dropping dead while going about their daily routine.
These videos are very disturbing. At first I thought they must be faked, but by now... too many.

7) R0 infection rate
The infection rate, R0, and fatality rate are all much higher than official Chinese figures indicate. The actual fatality rate is up over 20%, and that's with urgent hospital care.
But hospitals in China are overwhelmed. For no medical care, the fatality rate seems to be over 60%.

8) Virus Transmission
It is infectious via mouth and eyes. Water droplets and surfaces. Highly transmissible human to human, merely by proximity.
Also by touching face after any surface with virus on it. Surgical masks are inadequate.
This Virus requires sealed, filtered breathing mask and eye cover. Ideally full face positive pressure.
The 3M FFP3 masks are a minimum requirement and we do not know, how sufficient they are.

9) Medical staff
There has been serious attrition of medical staff in areas advanced on the curve, and China is losing the ability to care for infected. Hence the stadiums with thousands of beds and new hospitals built in a few days.
These are die or recover on your own holding centers.

10) Quarantine
The number of major cities in total quarantine continues to rise every day. Now over 100 million people in quarantined cities.
And people are getting shot for attempting to escape.

11) WHO and CDC
The WHO cannot be trusted as we know from the last few years. The WHO director was previously involved with handling huge Chinese investments to his country, and appears to be bought. There is an online petition demanding his resignation.
Overall the WHO acts like the Chinese government, absolutely truthful and enlightened Angels who can do no wrong and never lie.
The WHO acts like it wants 2019-nCoV to spread as much as possible.  Which leads to a whole mess of conspiracy stuff, deliberate global cull, Georgia Guidestones, etc. Those who know this background will understand the implications, those who wish to ignore it will continue to do so.

12) Premier Xi
Premier Xi seems to have disappeared. Anyone seen any recent video of him in public, or anywhere?
Alledgedly Trump offered help in many areas and it was denied by Xi

13) Wuhan Crematoriums
Reports from Wuhan, say ALL the crematoriums are running flat out, 24/7, and still failing to keep up. Bodies piling up in hospitals, and now apparently mass trench incineration of bodies.

14) Origin of the Virus
It did NOT originate in the Wuhan wetmarket, or from eating bats as we have been told. Official investigators (not Chinese gov) found the initial patients had no contact with the wetmarked. But somebody infected went to the wetmarket and spread it there, hence later cluster of cases associated with the wetmarket.

15) Military biolab in Wuhan
There is a high containment level biolab in Wuhan. It might have escaped from there. But would the Chinese have made a bioweapon targeted to Chinese? Very unlikely.

16) Biolab in Canada
There are claims that 2019-nCoV was created in a biolab in Canada. And that some Chinese researchers there were sacked last year for security violations, and went back to China.
Supposition: They took samples back to Wuhan biolab to be reverse engineered, and perhaps seeking countermeasures if they knew it was targeted against people of Chinese genetic heritage.

17) International Attack on China
Whether it escaped from the Wuhan biolab, or was deliberately released in Wuhan by some other party hoping to make it look like it escaped from that biolab, is unknown.
Perhaps the origin will never be known. But if the Chinese decide this was an intentional external attack, the human race will be in for extra hard times.

18) Future
For the rest of us the thing to watch for, are reports of person to person nCoV transmission among people outside of China, who have no Asian genetic heritage. Everyone has those receptor sites, just not as many. So what will the wider infection rate be?
Still unknown.

19) What is the real truth
There's no point arguing about any of this. All information sources are unreliable, some or all of the above may be wrong. Seek, and form your own interpretations. Which you may chose to act on, or not. It's already very tragic, no need to make it worse with hot tempers.

Besides, it took only about a month to get here. Given the curve rate, within another month we will know if this is IT, or just another over-hyped non-pandemic.