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Shriek RNG

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Jan 9th, 2022
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  1. Some Pointless RNG Guesswork (AKA, how unlucky was I?):
  2. * This is nearly all going to be guesswork from observation and might be totally off. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that every attack has an equal chance of showing up - if this is wrong, then everything below can be safely ignored whoops
  3. * Shriek can never give the same attack twice in a row.
  4. * Between each Cycle, Shriek can Swoop between 0 and 4 times. This is just from observation, so while an 8 Swoop fight should technically be possible, a 5 Swoop is the worst ever actually seen - it's possible the game weighs randomness away from Swoops after too many.
  5. * In a two Cycle fight, you'll normally average between 0 and 1 Swoops.
  6. * Shriek has nine total attacks - four Swoops, and five Cycles. In a two Cycle fight, her only opportunities to Swoop will be before each Cycle starts.
  7. * As there are more Cycle attacks, she is more likely to choose one of those on the first attack. Every Swoop she does increases the odds that the next attack will be a Cycle.
  8. * After any Cycle, it's a straight 50:50 between the next attack being a Cycle or a Swoop. If it's a Cycle, a two Cycle fight should end there and then. Thanks to the first attack being weighted towards Cycle, this actually makes 0 Cycle the most likely outcome.
  9. * If it's a Swoop, there are only 3 Swoop attacks to choose from and 5 Cycles. This means it's more likely to be a Cycle on the next attack, which means 1 Swoop is the next most common outcome.
  10. * Shriek tends not to repeat attacks often and, between Cycles, should never repeat the same Swoop twice (except that literal one time ever where it happened to mZuzek I'm so sorry). This means that that every additional Swoop is less likely than the one before it.
  11. * If you get a 4 Swoop, the game hates you
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