Red EQless, Center Skip, Heal Pad Skip, Early Koga (pokeguy route)

Based on https://pastebin.com/k019y5bC

References:
- Werster 2017 route: https://pastebin.com/Rnzn9yUu
- Werster 2017 route analysis: https://pastebin.com/PJjJ3sps

TLDR:
- Get max ether & 2nd nugget, sell para heal (for item space)
- Buy 15 X Acc, 3 X Special, 4 X Speed
- Do full Celadon Center skip & heal pad skip
- Tower -> Bike path -> Get candy, pp up, max elixir
- Use pp up -> Safari -> 20 items here -> Koga -> Candy x2 -> Silph (L41)
- mansion -> pickup carbos -> get blizzard -> get both candies

Issues/difficulties:
- Need to force max ether because no top hiker elixir. The resulting item management seems to force early koga as well...
- L41 for mansion = encounters on top floor (1%) and basement (5%)
- money issues: can force no 2nd nugget and 15acc,1spc,4spd via the following path: Do not buy para heals, buy 8 super repels and 2 super potions. Do not super repel on snorlax.
	> 24931 - 2000 - 4000 - 1400 - 1000 - 300 - 200 = 16031 - 16000 (15acc,1spc,4spd) = 31

To Do:
- Finalize route & item management
	> Is skipping 2nd nugget truly viable?
- Risk calculation & simulations
- Completely revamp any existing time calculations

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Added average risks in a vacuum:
- Tower Rival (-1.04976744%)
- Haunter (12.41%)
- Gastly (5.11%)
- Gastly (5.11%)
- Rocket 2 (15.18%)
- Rocket 3 (20.05%)
- Juggler 1 (19% to die)
- Juggler 2 (40% - 23% = 17%)
- Koga (1%)
- Arbok (19.34%)
- Silph Rival (-10%)
- Sabrina (40%)
- Giovanni 2 (23%)

1 - (0.540548195 * 0.245124824) = 86.7498219% chance of dying

NEW ADDED AVERAGE RISK TOTAL (EQless + FHPS)
1 - (1.01049767 * 0.8759 * 0.9489 * 0.9489 * 0.8482 * 0.7995 * 0.81 * 0.83 * 0.99 * 0.8066 * 1.1 * 0.6 * 0.77) = 85.2522555% chance of dying

1 - (0.540548195 * 0.27282941) = 85.2522555% chance of dying

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (original FHPS calc no drowzee range)
1 - (1.0107 * 0.9109 * 0.9406 * 0.9406 * 1 * 0.8881 * 0.9609375 * 0.91) = 36.744059% chance of dying

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (with drowzee range)
1 - (1.0107 * 0.8759 * 0.9489 * 0.9489 * 0.8482 * 0.7995 * 0.8066 * 0.9883) = 56.9095098% chance of dying

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (no drowzee range)
1 - (1.0107 * 0.8759 * 0.9489 * 0.9489 * 1 * 0.7995 * 0.8066 * 0.9883) = 49.1977244% chance of dying

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Preface
- Route
- Money
- Items
- Fly Count

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ROUTE

VIRIDIAN
- Shop: 3 Poke Balls.

PEWTER
- Shop: 7 Potions.

ROUTE 3
- If applicable, toss antidote while resetting shift menu setting.

ROUTE 25
- Bottom Hiker

VERMILION CITY
- Shop after boat ($11665):
- Sell Bide & Nugget
- Buy 3 Repels & 3 Para Heals

ROUTE 10
- Get Max Ether.
- ***Must commit to strat here***

UNDERGROUND
- Get Elixer (1 total)

CELADON MART
- Horn Drill, 7 Super Repels, 3 Super Potions.
- Poke Doll.
- Soda Pop -> Rock Slide -> Fresh Water.
- 14 X Accuracy, 2 X Special, 4 X Speed.

FLY MENU:
- Fly to Lavender.
- Move order: Rock Slide, Thrash, Thunderbolt, Bubblebeam.

LAVENDER
- Rival: TB, TB, BB, Thrash, Thrash x2 (OHKO only by crit).
- Gastlies: RS.
- Get Elixer x2 (3 total)
- Skip Heal Pad
- Haunter: RS (+ BB).
	> Rock Slide (32/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 84.9960%).
- Get Rare Candy
- Poke Doll menu: Swap lot 4 with Super Repel, use Poke Doll.
- Rocket 1: TB x3.
- Rocket 2: TB + Thrash
	> (23/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 65.7051%)
- Rocket 3: TB x2, Thrash
	> Raticate: (36/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 93.5697%)
- Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.

CYCLING ROAD
- Teach Horn Drill over Thrash -> Bike (18 items)
- Snorlax menu: DON'T SUPER REPEL, Swap slot 5 with X Speed, use Poke Flute.
- SKIP Rare Candy.
- Get PP Up.
- Get Max Elixer: https://extratricky.com/pokeworld/rb/1#118,255
- 20 items

FUCHSIA GYM
- Juggler 1: X Acc, Drill x2, RS, Drill.
- Juggler 2: X Acc, Drill x2.
- Use Elixer #1.
- Koga: X Acc, Drill x4.
- Candy x1 to L38 -> Bike to strength.

SAFARI ZONE
- Super Repel, swap slot 4 with Rare Candy, Use PP Up, Use Rare Candy, Use Max Ether (18 items)
- Get teeth and surf = 20 items
- Dig -> Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.

SILPH CO.
- Take stairs to 5F -> Get Elixir (3 Total)
- Arbok: TB x2
	> (Overall 2-hit Kill%: 95.6814%)
- Silph Rival: X Acc + Drill x2, RS, Drill x2.
- Rocket: X Acc, BB, Drill x2.
- Use Elixir #2
- Giovanni: X Acc, Drill x2, BB, Drill

PALLET
- Super Repel, Swap slot 5 with X Special, teach Surf , Surf.

MANSION (encounters on top floor (1%) and basement (5%))
- Get Blizzard -> Teach Blizzard over Bubblebeam, Super Repel, Scroll to Cancel.
- Get BOTH Rare Candies -> Candy x2 to L43.
- Get key -> Dig.

CELADON GYM
- Beauty: Blizz.
- Erika: Blizz x3.

CINNABAR GYM
- Blaine: X Acc, RS, Drill x3.

STRENGTH
- Fly to Fuschia, get Strength. Fly to Saffron

SAFFRON GYM
- Use Elixir #3
- Sabrina: RS, X Acc + Drill x3.

VIRIDIAN GYM
- Cooltrainer: Blizzard.
- Blackbelt: X Spec, Blizzard, TB, Blizzard
- Giovanni: X Acc, Blizzard x2, Drill x2, Use Elixir #4, Drill
- Get Fissure.
- Use a Super Repel -> Bike

VIRIDIAN RIVAL
- X Acc + X Speed + Blizzard (+TB), Blizzard, TB, RS, Drill x2.

Victory Road
- On a bike menu: Teach Fissure over Rock Slide, bike.

ELITE FOUR
- Lorelei: (Sacrifice flier), X Acc, Fissure x5.
- Bruno: X Acc, Blizzard, Drill x2, Blizzard, Drill.
- Use Max Elixir.
- Agatha: X Acc, X Speed, Fissure, Drill, Fissure x3.
- Lance: X Special, TB, Blizzard, X Spd + Blizzard, TB, Blizzard.
- Champ: X Acc, X Speed , Drill x2, Fissure, Drill x3.

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MONEY

Shop one:
- Viridian City
- BUY = 3 pokeballs
- 3175 - 600 = 2575 remain

Shop two:
- After Brock
- BUY = 7 potion
- 4051 - 2400 = 1951 remain

Shop three:
- After SS ANNE
- SELL = TM34, nugget
- BUY = 3 Repel, 3 para heal
- 11690 + 1000 + 5000 - 1050 - 600 = 16040 remain

Shop four:
- Celadon City
- SELL = Nugget x2, sell bide, sell para heals
- BUY = TM07, 9 Super Repel, 4 Super Potion, 1 Poke Doll, 1 Soda Pop, 1 Fresh Water
- X Items = 12 X Acc, 3 X Special, 5 X Speed
- 24631 - 2000 - 4000 - 2100 - 1000 - 300 - 200 = 14231
- 18531 = 18350 = 181 remain

X SPEEDS: 4
X SPECIALS: 2
X ACCURACYS: 14
X item cost: 15400

15031 - 15400 = -369

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ITEMS

PP ITEMS
- 1 PP UP
- 4 ELIXIR
- 1 MAX ETHER

Snorlax (20)

bike
helix fossil -> super repel
elixir -> x acc
ss ticket
full restore
hm01
potion
para heal
max ether
super repel
super potion
fresh water
xacc
xspc
xspd
hm02
rare candy
poke flute
(get pp up)
(get max elixir)

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FLY COUNT

**Normal
(6 total)

fly to tower -> fly to celadon -> CENTER
bike to silph -> dig to celadon
bike path -> safari -> dig to celadon -> fly to koga
fly to pallet town -> mansion -> dig to celadon
Erika -> fly to cinnabar
Blane -> dig to celadon -> bike to sabrina
dig to celadon -> fly to Giovanni

**EQless, center skip, early safari, silph, koga, etc,
(8 total)

fly to tower -> fly to celadon -> DON'T CENTER (-15.7)
bike path -> safari -> dig to cerulean -> fly to celadon (+8.9)
bike to silph -> dig to cerulean -> fly to koga
fly to pallet town -> mansion -> dig to cerulean -> fly to celadon (+8.9)
Erika -> fly to cinnabar
Blane -> dig to cerulean -> fly to sabrina
dig to cerulean -> fly to Giovanni

====================================================

**EQless, center skip, early safari, early koga, late silph, etc.
(8 total)

fly to tower -> fly to celadon -> DON'T CENTER (-15.7)
bike path -> safari -> dig to cerulean -> fly to koga
fly to celadon -> bike to silph -> dig to cerulean (+8.9)
fly to pallet town -> mansion -> dig to cerulean -> fly to celadon (+8.9)
Erika -> fly to cinnabar
Blane -> dig to cerulean -> fly to sabrina
dig to cerulean -> fly to Giovanni