Game theory intro

cryptonaut [2:10 PM]
lots of good articles today calling out the bullshit :slightly_smiling_face:

csw [2:11 PM]
"Working with Miners, Not Against"

bergun [2:11 PM]
Yeah, I can't believe Silbert's "compromise" proposal

[2:12]
As though Hong Kong didn't happen

klee [2:12 PM]
Is Grayscale a Blockstream investor?

new messages
bergun [2:12 PM]
Clearly just setting it up to happen all over again

csw [2:12 PM]
I think the Nazi party gave the Jews a compromise too...

bergun [2:12 PM]
I wouldn't be surprised if they were connected

[2:13]
The Silberts seem pretty shady where it comes to double-dealing, insider trading, and conflicts of interest where it comes to investing (ie, their business)

tomothy
[2:13 PM]
yes, especially with ETH/ETC, i'm not saying he has motives but, he's probably got motives

bergun [2:14 PM]
He also uses his Twitter as a way to pump & dump

[2:14]
And has/uses inside information from exchanges which he has investments in to profit

[2:15]
eg, knowing before the general public when a new currency will be listed

bergun [2:15 PM]
I think he's a big investor in Kraken
 2 replies Last reply today at 3:59 PM View thread

bergun [2:15 PM]
not sure, but he may also have money in Coinbase

[2:15]
and others

cryptonaut [2:16 PM]
he owns digital currency group which is a blockstream investor


[2:16]
http://dcg.co/portfolio/

bergun [2:16 PM]
Well there you go

cryptonaut [2:16 PM]
these guys are very preditcable (edited)

bergun [2:17 PM]
Greg claims that Blockstream has no plan to profit off LN

[2:17]
Yeah, right.

cryptonaut [2:17 PM]
he claims a lot of things

bergun [2:17 PM]
I'll believe that when the Sun burns out

csw [2:17 PM]
Did anyone think that the Lightning network is a credit system?

A replacement for credit cards and debt. You need to lock up your funds. To start a lightning channel, you need access to money that can be held for months. Few are this rich.The answer is simple.You centralise and charge people interest to use it.

Profit

[2:18]
Oh, I have a Masters in Law.

[2:18]
Here is something you may not have known

[2:18]
There is a property title addition called a covenant

csw [2:19 PM]
This binds the property. It could be used on a patent. That would bind any use now and in the future
1 reply Today at 4:02 PM View thread

csw [2:19 PM]
It would even bind a sale and even a bankruptcy

cryptonaut [2:19 PM]
even lamer than that, it's more of a pre-paid credit system currently

[2:19]
lock up X funds

[2:19]
most people live pay cheque to pay cheque

csw [2:19 PM]
The "pledge" is worth about the same as used toilet paper.

[2:19]
Zero enforcement value....

[2:20]
So... why an unenforceable pledge?

Why not a covenant?

joeldalais [2:23 PM]
i wonder if anyone from core have considered the loss of earnings due to time loss when miners try to sell solely through a ln/sidechain model, waiting 2 weeks in the mempool. But let's be honest, they would change it again to longer than 2 weeks.. what will this loss of time do..

[2:24]
is anyone from core still here?

[2:24]
ah ye, i see luke

cryptorebel [2:42 PM]
Nobody should believe their pledge, they are complete liars and hypocrites, here is Greg Maxwell laughing out loud at Craig Wright's patents saying patents for Bitcoin are impossible, only a month or two before he started vehemently defending BlockStream and their patents, classic Greg Orwellian doublespeak: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4ozflt/craig_satoshi_nakamoto_wright_tries_to_dominate/d4grvjf/
reddit
Craig "Satoshi Nakamoto" Wright Tries to Dominate Blockchain with Patents | Finance Magnates • r/btc
46 points and 199 comments so far on reddit


csw [2:44 PM]
I am proud of profit :stuck_out_tongue:

[2:45]
Remember my non-existent doctorate?
https://medium.com/@MADinMelbourne/welcome-to-the-ministry-of-truth-in-the-wiki-age-601ec28a2504
Medium
Welcome to the Ministry of Truth in the Wiki Age. – #thewildcard – Medium
“Is this really happening?” was tweeted to me yesterday as nChain announced it’s arrival into the Bitcoin scene, bringing with it the…
Reading time
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4 min read

(461kB)
April 17th at 5:36 AM

[2:45]
http://imgur.com/WSWWmjB
Imgur
Dr Craig S Wright - Doctor Of Philosophy = Proof Of Doctorate - Charles Sturt University
Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet. (182kB)

[2:46]
http://imgur.com/QFJWW1P
Imgur
Dr Craig Steven Wright -Master of Laws, with commendation in International Commercial Law University of Northumbria at Newcastle
Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet. (26kB)

tomothy
[2:46 PM]
@lightning

csw [2:46 PM]
We still believe all lil Greggie says :wink:

tomothy
[2:47 PM]
hi lightning, i thought you were in here. Some of the promised information/proof from above. Feel free to invite your colleagues.

ryanxy [2:47 PM]
joined private by invitation from @tomothy

csw [2:48 PM]
Do you want the really scary part?

cryptorebel [2:48 PM]
lol, right out of 1984

coredump [2:49 PM]
joined private by invitation from @tomothy, along with @sikaru

tomothy
[2:49 PM]
kind of, but i get nightmares easily... :smile:

csw [2:50 PM]
I have 17 degrees, I am in the process of completing my eighth masters this year from Uni London and I have an applcation for my 3rd doctorate here in the UK which I hope to start in Oct (edited)

cryptorebel [2:50 PM]
I have a feeling you would mop the floor with Greg Maxwell's beard in a debate

csw [2:51 PM]
I also came first in my Bar exam...

[2:51]
But never practiced as a lawyer

tomothy
[2:51 PM]
wait, you guys get ranked on law bar exams? here it's whomever passes, is still a lawyer, similar to doctors (in the states)
 2 replies Last reply today at 4:05 PM View thread

csw [2:52 PM]
Around half my papers were published in Chinese journals and conferences

[2:52]
Hence why nobody finds them :wink:

[2:52]
I have 114 published papers.

[2:54]
Coding wise.
I created and secured the system that was used to launch the first online Casino
Lasseters Casino

[2:54]
That was in 1998

[2:55]
We Ozzies did that, online casino with a license... Then the yanks killed it

[2:55]
I created the first legal online Poker system :slightly_smiling_face:

[2:56]
And my UI skills are still abysmal


cryptorebel [2:58 PM]
yeah the good old UIGEA wrecked it, I used to play a fair bit of poker

csw [2:58 PM]
Tell me about it

[2:58]
Those were the days

[2:59]
But god that was a terrible site when you look at it now

[2:59]
I see the games that are produced now... and it is a poke on how shitty any front end I did was.

[3:02]
Has anyone here ever seen the Texas Holdem client that linked into Bitcoin 0.1.x?


cryptorebel [3:03 PM]
I heard about that and it sounded pretty interesting...decentralized poker would be a pretty cool vision, not sure if it would be possible

csw [3:03 PM]
Mental Poker based on a node system

tomothy
[3:03 PM]
Yes, I was gonna ask but... Lol

csw [3:03 PM]
https://www.pokernewsdaily.com/lasseters-online-casino-ceases-operations-532/
pokernewsdaily.com
Lasseters Online Casino Ceases Operations
In a statement posted on its website on Friday, Lasseters Online Casino announced that it has shut its doors, effective immediately, after a decision from the Board of Directors of its parent company. The site, which was opened in 1999, is currently in the process of granting withdrawals.


[3:03]
Lasseters was finally killed in Oct 2008

tomothy
[3:03 PM]
I think it was better not continued

[3:04]
BTC poker I means

csw [3:04 PM]
That was a sad day.

tomothy
[3:05 PM]
Was it a strategic decision?

csw [3:05 PM]
They were bled by the Yanks

[3:05]
tax and fines

rajsallin [3:05 PM]
I use to play poker on seals with clubs with bitcoins

csw [3:05 PM]
Killed slowly

tomothy
[3:05 PM]
No, poker in BTC, not continued.

cryptorebel [3:05 PM]
they kept seizing the bank accounts of payment processors, if only we had a permissionless money system

csw [3:06 PM]
Yes, it was really good that somebody thought of that


[3:06]
:slightly_smiling_face:

[3:06]
Too late to save Lasseters though

[3:06]
:disappointed:

[3:10]
1 min to guess the scariest thing about Bitcoin poker?
1 BTC if you do :slightly_smiling_face:

tomothy
[3:11 PM]
Can't even start to guess. Maybe pot could be taken by anyone or something.

csw [3:11 PM]
no

[3:11]
Mental poker and p2p

[3:11]
so, not that one

[3:11]
next try

[3:12]
so bad it is easy :wink:

cryptorebel [3:12 PM]
no rake??

csw [3:12 PM]
NO

[3:12]
Worse

[3:12]
Times up

[3:12]
It was a Flash Game

[3:13]
I did say I suck at UI's :slightly_smiling_face:

cryptorebel [3:14 PM]
ohh yeah so its easy to hack? maybe thats why sealswithclubs got rid of their flash integration

csw [3:14 PM]
Yes, mega secure backend and crap UI


[3:14]
:slightly_smiling_face:

rajsallin [3:14 PM]
csw do you play any poker yourself?

tomothy
[3:14 PM]
Omg! Lollll

csw [3:15 PM]
What happens when a C coder tries to make a UI


[3:15]
Yes... A little :slightly_smiling_face:

[3:15]
I am best before I drink :slightly_smiling_face:

rajsallin [3:15 PM]
Haha! Fun to hear

btcalbin [3:16 PM]
Sounds like a hustler!

[3:16]
Yeah guys, I know a little poker.... what were the rules again??

csw [3:16 PM]
I have this habit of winking at people and using emojies online when I get tossed

[3:16]
I am great sober, terrible on the piss :slightly_smiling_face:

adamselene [3:17 PM]
Lol

rajsallin [3:17 PM]
Have you studied game theory related to texas holdem?

csw [3:17 PM]
Yes

[3:17]
I have a few papers on game theory and economics :slightly_smiling_face:

[3:18]
I started applying game theory to risk and security over a decade ago

[3:18]
Most people laughed at me :slightly_smiling_face:

rajsallin [3:18 PM]
Last poker related question. How game theory optimal would you say your game is?

csw [3:18 PM]
I was told crypto is better than games

[3:18]
How well do I know my opponent?

[3:19]
Or is this a blind table

rajsallin [3:19 PM]
Your opponent doesn't mater

checksum0 [3:19 PM]
You know them well enough because you have a bot scraping all actions 24/7 on all gambling site?

[3:19]
:slightly_smiling_face:

csw [3:19 PM]
In poker, your opponent does matter

rajsallin [3:19 PM]
If you make adjustments based on your opponent you are deviating from GTO

[3:20]
And of course that could be more profitable and often is

csw [3:20 PM]
That assumes a single play and not a super game strategy

rajsallin [3:20 PM]
It assumes one or several players

csw [3:20 PM]
Most academics think in terms of closed sub games

[3:21]
You need to think in terms of a super game

[3:21]
The strategy needs ot account for a loss differntial to lead ones opponent into betting outside their comfort zone


btcalbin [3:21 PM]
even chess which is perfect information, in practical play your opponent matters

csw [3:22 PM]
And this means a loss before the win

rajsallin [3:23 PM]
yes that is true but then you are playing vs someone that is playing far from GTO which makes it more profitable to deviate from GTO yourself.

csw [3:23 PM]
Even a Prisoners dilemma changes as a super game. Two parties need to account for family, acquaintances and who knows who in prison.

[3:24]
It is not will I be in gaol, but also who is the other person and what connections do they have?

rajsallin [3:24 PM]
But if we look at two of the worlds best players they should eventually play closer and closer towards a GTO style

[3:24]
Near a nash equilibrium

btcalbin [3:24 PM]
they don't necessarily because there's a meta game surrounding the details of competition

rajsallin [3:24 PM]
well yes

csw [3:24 PM]
@btcalbin I agree

btcalbin [3:25 PM]
like in chess, you routinely select or exclude variations that either impose big computational demands on your opponent, or minimize yours

[3:25]
even if objectively the sharp lines are stronger

csw [3:25 PM]
And few of the best ever compete against each other directly

rajsallin [3:25 PM]
also true

csw [3:26 PM]
I modeled Bitcoin as a Stag hunt in 2010

[3:27]
I promised to dig up my papers and make them easy to find... it will happen in the next few weeks

rajsallin [3:28 PM]
I'd be interested to read

csw [3:28 PM]
It is actually interesting as defection hurts the defector
It is not altruistic, but rather self interest.

[3:29]
I had read Skyrms, B. (2004). The stag hunt and the evolution of social structure: Cambridge University Press.

[3:29]
Interesting in that it was a game that predated Nash by 100 years :slightly_smiling_face:

[3:29]
Pre game theory game theory

rajsallin [3:30 PM]
have to put kids to bed brb

csw [3:30 PM]
k

[3:35]
"_As the ratio between the payoff for stag hunting and the payoff for hare hunting is reduced, the incentives to move towards stag hunting decrease, making it less likely that protocol change will be made into a primary goal of either party. As such, where the introduction of special features and the “new killer app” occur more frequently, software security lags and it becomes more likely that a change from a stag hunting equilibrium to a hare hunting equilibrium will occur. It is hence less probable that an alteration of the player’s strategy from hare to stag occurs._

_It becomes clear that growth in the system becomes a beneficial spiral with corporations funding miners who fund protocol developers. This interrelation is the key. As new features are proposed, they will develop on systems connected to the main protocol using ZKPs to ensure that the primary system remains open and simple. Hence allowing widespread coordination and interdependence on the stag default"._ (edited)

[3:36]
A 2010 publication in a Chinese conference was likely not the best place for gaining citations... but that was never my goal.

[3:37]
@thatwildcard
Dale... make certain I get you that paper next week to post :slightly_smiling_face:

[3:38]
I always loved China. They are worse gamblers than I am :slightly_smiling_face:

[3:40]
_"The protocol system in Bitcoin is best modeled using the “Stag Hunt,” based on Jean Jacques Rousseau’s postulations of a co-operation strategy between two hunters (as cited in Skyrms, 2004). These individuals can either jointly hunt a stag or individually hunt a rabbit. The largest payoff is assigned against the capture of a stag, which provides a larger return than the hare. The hunting of a stag is more demanding and requires mutual cooperation. If either player hunts a stag alone, the chance of success is negligible and sub-optimal. Hunting stags is most beneficial for society in that this activity creates the optimal returns. The problem with this game is that it requires a lot of trust among the players."_ (edited)

[3:40]
In 2010 there was trust.

Core and Blockstream are making that .... problematic

[3:42]
And yes... I SELF-Plagiarised myself in my PhD


csw [3:52 PM]
g'night john boy

[3:52]
Study time

rajsallin [4:02 PM]
interesting chat. gl with the studies


csw [4:02 PM]
Ta

ger [4:08 PM]
I was thinking why is this familiar... :thinking_face: and then saw your comment underneath :face_with_rolling_eyes: *bops brain*