11/4-11/6/22 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

11/4-11/6/23 Update, day 618-621 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

The situation in Belarus remains unchanged, and the UA intel services continue to state there is no threat of an attack despite RU propaganda occasionally implying so.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

Major Gennadiy Chastyakov, assistant to UA CIC General Zaluzhny, was killed when he played with a grenade with his son, after receiving it for his birthday. The UA government has come out and said the accident was due to negligence, not enemy action.

The UA MoD announced its 5 year development plan for the ZSU:
The UA military will shift away from conscription, and move to all-volunteer forces. Conscriptable age citizens will receive mandatory military training.
This, among other elements designed to form a more professional fighting force, are designed to improve morale and capabilities.

The ex-Deputy minister of defense, who served from 2021-2023, is under investigation for deliberately purchasing lower quality uniforms, at the cost of some 27 million USD.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der leyen, arrived in Kyiv on friday, with the intent to prepare a report assessing UA's progress towards EU membership, and stating that further EU sanctions on RU are coming.

Der Leyen also stated that the EU is working to allocate 50 billion euros on reconstruction and investment.

There have been several shakeup's in the Ukrainian command structure, with a new SOF commander appointed at the request of the new Defense Minister, Rustem Umyerov.

UA rank and file soldiers continue to complain about varied commanders, with Gen Syrski's name continuing to crop up. Gen. Oleksander Syrski, who commanded the battle of Debaltseve in 2015, has come under fire for alleged "soviet style archaic planning" and "claiming the benefits of others plans" during the Kharkiv offensive.

Zelensky refuted claims made in recent articles, regarding western pressure to enter into negotiations with RU, saying "I don't know who is publishing this and why. As a person who is responsible for such negotiations, I will say that none of the leaders of the EU and the USA are putting pressure on me today".

Zelensky also stated that "Currently is not the right times for elections, and we need to put an end to political disputes." He emphasized commitment to the armed forces, stating there is a need to focus on defense.

Per the UA ministry of Environment, 20% of natural conservation areas have been damaged or destroyed in the country.

Martial law and mobilization has been proposed for extension for another 90 days, until Feb 16th, 2024.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

RU forces continued intermittent shelling of the border villages, and a UA drone was shot down over Bryansk.

Approximately 730 solar panels removed from high rise buildings in London were sent to the Poltava and Chernihiv region, delivered predominantly to hospitals.

Following an electrical disconnect of a 330 kv line in W Ukraine, there were approximately 76,000 disconnected customers. Currently, almost all are reconnected.

Red aurora borealis were seen in Northern Ukraine over the weekend, due to a geomagnetic storm.


Kupyansk/E Kharkiv

Some 250 Wagner soldiers have arrived on the Kupyansk front, to manage assault operations towards the Oskil river. This includes management of regular military and Storm-Z units. RU still apparently intends to push down the riverfront to secure natural barriers, both here and further E in the Zherebets river region. Currently, they appear unsuccessful.

RU conducted some 10 assaults in this region today.

RU did not conduct assaults towards Lyman.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU has become more active in the Bakhmut fight, and is committing more forces and equipment to it. Per UA commanders, RU lost some 200 soldiers and 31 pieces of equipment here in the last 24 hours.

RU appears to have made further gains to the NW of Bakhmut, near Yahidne. UA troops continue efforts to move NE from Kliischivka, across the river. RU appears to be conducting further offensive ops near S Bakhmut, around Kliischivka.

Another 97 children and 70 families were forcibly evacuated from the Bakhmut area near Toretsk, over the last 2 weeks. Currently, 138 children in 118 families remain. Over 9200 children have been evacuated so far this year.


Avdiivka:

RU forces continue efforts to surround Avdiivka, primarily from the north by way of seizing the industrial Coke plant. Currently, they remain in proximity of the large industrial mount N of the area, hemmed in by drone strikes.

RU continues to use heavy glide bomb and MLRS strikes to pound UA positions in the city. Per UA, RU lost some 250 soldiers and 20 vehicles in the last 24 hours. Over the last 3 weeks, they have lost some 100 tanks and 250 armored vehicles.

There is no significant RU movement from the south. The rainy and muddy conditions have been cited as impediments to RU advances. RU is however apparently committing more forces to the region in preparation for continued assaults.

A RU EW system, the Pole-21, capable of providing 25km radius in coverage, was destroyed in this area. Its designed to impede UAV and precision missiles.



Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

Despite passportization and recruitment efforts, RU has had noted difficulty in recruiting for its DPR/LPR battalions in  Kherson and Zaporizhia. Per the Center of National Resistance, less then 7% of the population in the occupied territories has enlisted.

RU forces continue suppression efforts, and looking for UA informants.

RU is reducing the amount of humanitarian aid in the occupied territories, first restricting it to those with RU passports, and now to active laborers. There is ongoing efforts to force the citizens to pay for major reconstructive repairs in cities like Severodonetsk.

As RU continues to load coal in Mariupol, the rebuilding of the city is estimated to take 20 years.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

The commander of the 128th Mountain assault brigade has been removed from his command, following a missile attack that occurred on his artillery troops. 19 soldiers were killed, including a new commander, after the troops were lined up outside for an award ceremony. Transcarpathia, the mountainous region the unit hails from, has announced a 3 day period of mourning.

UA forces appear to have made minor gains to the E of Robotyne.

There has been an apparent increase in UA long range strikes in Berdyansk, Crimea, and Melitopol. UA states they intend to conduct consistent long range drone strikes on RU positions as fighting diminishes in the winter.

The IAEA has conducted a rotation of observers at the ZNPP.


Kherson:

UA forces continue apparently move across the river, with some new territory under contestation in the village of Krynky, and further downstream. RU is apparently planning to commit more soldiers to the area to kick UA troops back across the river.

Some 350 children and their families were removed from the contact lines in Kherson, and another 450 remain. The UA government continues to encourage residents to leave the areas under bombardment.

RU glide bomb strikes continue on the Kherson axis, with intermittent drone strikes on civilian areas, including a grocery store in Beryslav. A school was destroyed by glide bomb attack, with no casualties. Currently, there are up to 50 glide bombs per day on average in Kherson, with 87 fired on 11/5. The majority are the 500kg variant.



Odesa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU drone strikes in Odesa attacked a set of architectural monuments, including the Odesa national art museum and a medical school. 8 people were injured, and are currently stable.

Following a successful UA missile strike, the Zaliva shipyard and a modern Kalibr class ship, the Askold were heavily damaged with some loaded cruise missiles appearing to have detonated in their tubes. This is the newest class of ship in the RU Black Sea Fleet.

Over the last 16 months, 42 billion euros of income have been generated by UA grain sales, including via sea corridors. Per the UA Ministry of Agrarian Policy, UA exports have fallen from 14.3 million to 9.8 million metric tons over the same period last year, a 30% reduction primarily due to RU attacks on port infrastructure.

There is a developing water crisis in Crimea, following reductions in the water volume in the Biloghir and Taigan reservoirs.


Russia:

Russian "National Unity day" had a muted response in both the occupied territories and russia proper.

Per the UK MoD, inflation in Russia is continuing to accelerate, with a 6% increase in September vs a 5.3% increase in August, due to increased consumer prices. This will likely have follow on effects for RU military financing.

RU announced it had successfully conducted a test firing of a new SLBM. UA claims the test failed on technical grounds.

Arrested former FSB officer Igor Girkin continued to make gloomy predictions about the ability for RU to break the positional warfare currently seen, drawing reference to Zaluzhnys article. He claims that continued western support could allow for localized gains by UA forces if they can gain periodic air superiority with the arrival of western airframes.

Per the UA GUR, RU produced approx 115 long range precision missiles, and currently have approx 870 in total storage. These break down as:
20 Kalibrs (165 total)
40 Kh-101 (160 air variants)
4 Khinzal hypersonics (80)
30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (290 of all Iskander)
12 Iskander-K cruise missiles.


General:

UA forces conducted 10 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 70 air strikes. Overnight, UA shot down 15/22 Shahed UAV and one Kh-59. A Kh-31, Onyx anti-ship missile, and Iskander M were not intercepted, fired from Crimea.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

880x soldiers (Total 305,970 )
5x APC
4x Tank
14x Artillery (0xMLRS)
14x vehicles
20x UAV

Over the last week, 40/64 Shahed drones and 40/85 Lancet drones were intercepted. Last week, there were 38 missile attacks, 450 air strikes (including glide bombs) and 490 MLRS attacks.


Overseas:

The Netherlands will provide $500 million euros in military aid, especially including artillery and tank ammunition. The UA government also stated there is an artillery and tank ammo shortage, and looks forwards to international cooperation to fix this.

The Romanian government will allocate up to 50 million euros to subsidize the interest that Ukraine has to repay on the 18 billion euro loan provided by the EU in December 2022. This will be allocated over the next 4 years.

The UA EU integration minister emphasized that UA has no problems with the new Slovakian government, headed by pro-russian Robert Fico. The new PM stated he will not support military assistance to UA, as it would be "better for RU and UA to negotiate peace for 10 years instead of kill each other with no result". He however stated he will not obstruct Slovakian companies from production and sales to Ukraine independently, and emphasizes that Slovakia will support demining and humanitarian acts.

In the UK, 127 companies voluntarily informed the government that they had violated RU sanctions.

RU troops shot an elderly Georgian citizen while trying to detain him in South Ossetia.

There are new allegations that UA SOF are involved in combat actions against Wagner troops in Sudan.