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TWEET # Untitled a guest Jul 30th, 2014 477 Never
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1. # Fill in the defect rates and decay factor however.
2. # Decay factor is 1-f: if 10% fewer people defect in generation n+1 than generation n, set defector_decay_factor to 0.9.
3. # Pulled the stats here from http://www.patheos.com/blogs/lovejoyfeminism/2012/01/quiverfull-outbreeding-the-world.html
4. # Quiverfulls currently have a high defect rate, and Amish currently have a low defect rate...
5. # ...so change the strings in the puts commands as necessary.
6. # Could be modified to have specific decay factors for each defect rate, but I didn't do that.
7. atheists = 90000000
8. atheist_birth_rate = 2.0
9. christians = 8000000
10. christian_birth_rate = 4.0
11. quiverfulls = 2000000
12. quiverfull_birth_rate = 8.0
13. a_c_defect_rate = 0.0
14. a_q_defect_rate = 0.0
15. c_a_defect_rate = 0.0
16. c_q_defect_rate = 0.0
17. q_a_defect_rate = 0.0
18. q_c_defect_rate = 0.0
19. generations = 3
20. defector_decay_factor = 1.0
21.
22. def percent(n, total)
23.   return ((n.to_f / total) * 100).round
24. end
25.
26. def round(n)
27.   return (n / 1000000).round.to_s + " million"
28. end
29.
30. total = atheists + christians + quiverfulls
31.
32. (generations+1).times do |i|
33.   puts "Generation #{i}"
34.   puts "Atheists: #{percent(atheists, total)}%, #{round(atheists)}, decay rates = #{a_c_defect_rate.round(2)}, #{a_q_defect_rate.round(2)}"
35.   puts "Christians: #{percent(christians, total)}%, #{round(christians)}, decay rates = #{c_a_defect_rate.round(2)}, #{c_q_defect_rate.round(2)}"
36.   puts "Quiverfulls: #{percent(quiverfulls, total)}%, #{round(quiverfulls)}, decay rates = #{q_a_defect_rate.round(2)}, #{q_c_defect_rate.round(2)}"
37.   puts ''
38.
39.   atheists = (atheists / 2) * atheist_birth_rate
40.   christians = (christians / 2) * christian_birth_rate
41.   quiverfulls = (quiverfulls / 2) * quiverfull_birth_rate
42.   total = atheists + christians + quiverfulls
43.
44.   a_c_defectors = atheists * a_c_defect_rate
45.   a_q_defectors = atheists * a_q_defect_rate
46.   c_a_defectors = christians * c_a_defect_rate
47.   c_q_defectors = christians * c_q_defect_rate
48.   q_a_defectors = quiverfulls * q_a_defect_rate
49.   q_c_defectors = quiverfulls * q_c_defect_rate
50.
51.   atheists -= a_c_defectors
52.   christians += a_c_defectors
53.   atheists -= a_q_defectors
54.   quiverfulls += a_q_defectors
55.
56.   christians -= c_a_defectors
57.   atheists += c_a_defectors
58.   christians -= c_q_defectors
59.   quiverfulls += c_q_defectors
60.
61.   quiverfulls -= q_a_defectors
62.   atheists += q_a_defectors
63.   quiverfulls -= q_c_defectors
64.   christians += q_c_defectors
65.
66.   a_c_defect_rate = a_c_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
67.   a_q_defect_rate = a_q_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
68.   c_a_defect_rate = c_a_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
69.   c_c_defect_rate = c_q_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
70.   q_a_defect_rate = q_a_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
71.   q_c_defect_rate = q_c_defect_rate * defector_decay_factor
72. end
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