Maghreb Dawn

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>#Maghreb Dawn: A New Phase in the Second Libyan Civil War

>by [Brian Michael Jenkins](https://www.rand.org/about/people/j/jenkins_brian_michael.html)   **Related Topics:** [Africa](https://www.rand.org/topics/africa.html), [Global Security](https://www.rand.org/topics/global-security.html), [Peacekeeping and Stability Operations](https://www.rand.org/topics/peacekeeping-and-stability-operations.html), Terrorism

>The ongoing Second Libyan Civil War has been one of Africa’s most intractable conflicts, entering its 7th year as three different governments and countless militias vie for control. With foreign actors funneling ever more support to General Haftar’s Libyan National Army it has long appeared that LNA victory over the UN-recognized Government of National Accord is inevitable.

>The intervention of the North African powers, however, has complicated the situation. Despite official denials of any intervention, forces from Algeria and the newly established Maghreb Republic have rapidly overwhelmed LNA forces in the Tripolitania region, conducting a fast-moving offensive that has already drawn close to besieged Tripoli. The arrival of yet another combatant into the mix promises to reshape the conflict; the intervention of Algeria marks the first time a foreign power has intervened in force. The balance is once again up in the air: only time will tell who takes control of Libya.

> 


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###0637 EEST, December 8th: Shock and Awe

On the night of December 7th, 2021, Libyan National Army forces holding positions at [Al-Wafa](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Wafa+Oil+Field/@28.9288844,9.1867824,8.67z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x124afa5b05168d9f:0x5a1cf1bb4ff7c4fc!8m2!3d28.8888711!4d10.0269771) identified an unknown helicopter leaving Libyan airspace for the Algerian border. A general alarm was sounded and resulted in identification of several more aircraft departing Libyan border towns, but no positive identification was made. The alert held for a few more hours; after no infiltrators were detected, LNA troops stood down for the night, leaving only a few anti-air guns on standby, expecting that whatever happened clearly wasn’t important if there was no sign of any assailants. As dawn rose, they discovered their error.

The LNA garrison at [Ghadames](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghadames) awoke to the thunder of explosions and the roar of jet engines as a squadron of Su-34 bombers dropped guided munitions on command posts and vehicle depots. LNA troops that did make it to their posts were rapidly driven back by a fast-moving mechanized assault from the west as professional soldiers in unmarked uniforms stormed the town. At the same time, a Shilka anti-air gun at Al-Wafa suddenly picked up what appeared to be a large group of helicopters on radar. The crew frantically aimed and fired, downing one transport before a gunship destroyed their vehicle. The rest of the garrison at the oil fields, alerted by the sound of gunfire, discovered a brigade of airborne troops at their gates and a squadron of attack helicopters overhead. As the last LNA defenders were mopped up, combat engineers dug in, preparing forward operating bases and airfields at both garrisons as supplies were stockpiled for the next offensive.

###0721 EEST, December 8th: Unfriendly Skies

By this time, it had become clear to LNA command that the Algerian military had crossed the border in force. Two of the LNA/AF’s fifteen fighter jets circled over the north of the country, dispatched in response to requests for reinforcements from the border. Three more were on the runways in the east, preparing to launch as LNA command tried to figure out what Algeria’s objectives were and how to respond. As the generals debated, several pilots reported that their communications were breaking up, before the radio channels were entirely drowned out by static. 30,000 feet above, the Maghreb Air Force had arrived, after a rather tense flight through Algerian airspace. Scattered MiG-21MFs and Mirage F1s were no match for a squadron of F-16Vs with electronic warfare support; the two aircraft that challenged the Maghrebis were downed in short order, and the three that attempted to flee for Egyptian airspace were intercepted and eliminated. The remaining 10 jets and assorted Soviet helicopter gunships in the LNA’s possession were destroyed on the runways as the Maghrebis homed in on the LNA’s airports. By 9:00AM, the LNA/AF had effectively ceased to exist.

Maghrebi pilots noted [several unmarked propellor aircraft and drones](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uae-pilots-flying-sorties-haftar-skies-over-libya) departing Al-Kharim airport for the Egyptian border as they returned from their runs over eastern Libya.

###1513 EEST, December 8th: Thunder Run

Scattered reports from scouts in the Nalut district indicated that the Algerians had struck out along the Ghadames-Nalut highway, on a collision course for the main LNA armored depot in the region at the [Al-Juwaybiyah](https://www.google.com/maps/@31.7862484,10.9506197,5599m/data=!3m1!1e3) military base. With several hours before the Algerians arrived, the LNA commanders did their best to dig in, emplacing their tanks on the reverse slopes of the sand dunes around the facility, hoping to level the playing field by shortening the engagement range. Of course, this was of absolutely no help when the bombers showed up. Heavily modernized Algerian T-55/AMVs crested the ridge as Fullback fighter-bombers laid into the assorted Soviet surplus armor of the LNA defenders. One lucky shot at close range managed to disable an Algerian T-55, which was destroyed in place by combat engineers as the mechanized force pushed on, linking up with GNA troops in Nalut

###2102 EEST, December 8th: Connect the Fronts

By the night of December 8th Algerian mechanized forces had bypassed the LNA-held town of Zintan and linked up with the beleaguered defenders at [Yafran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yafran), securing a tenuous line of communications with the besieged GNA government in Tripoli. LNA forces to the west of the capital are now pinned between the Algerians, the city, and the sea. GNA troops have been dispatched south to take over the garrison at the Al-Wafa fields, leaving the GNA in control of a critical revenue source.

###Casualties

Unit | Losses
:--|:--
**Libyan National Army** |
Infantry | Major Casualties
Air Forces | Eliminated
**Algeria** |
Infantry | 49
Nimr IMV | 7
BTR-82A | 3
T-55/AMV | 1
Mi-171 | 1
**Maghreb** |
None |

###Summary

* LNA troops report an unidentified helicopter flying towards Al-Wafa during alert, prompting a general search. Several aircraft are detected leaving border towns, but no positive identification is made..

* Su-34 strikes devastate command positions in Ghadames and unmarked mechanized columns from Algeria roll over stunned LNA positions with minimal losses.

*  The night-time detection near Al-Wafa leaves defenders on alert, resulting in an LNA Shilka downing one Mi-171 before being destroyed in turn by an Algerian gunship. Capture otherwise proceeds smoothly.

* Maghrebi fighters destroy the LNA’s air wing.

* [Several unmarked aircraft and drones depart from Al Kharim airport for Egypt as LNA/AF fields are cratered.](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uae-pilots-flying-sorties-haftar-skies-over-libya)

* The LNA tank garrison at Nalut is destroyed by Algerian airpower and armor, eliminating one of the largest force concentrations in western Libya.

* Algerian troops bypass Zintan and link up with beleaguered GNA defenders at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yafran, at the fringes of Libya’s embattled suburbs, after breaking through Nalut. Algerian forces have an established if tenuous line of communication to Tripoli.

Unit | Losses
:--|:--
**Libyan National Army** |
Infantry | Major Casualties
Air Forces | Eliminated
**Algeria** |
Infantry | 49
Nimr IMV | 7
BTR-82A | 3
T-55/AMV | 1
Mi-171 | 1
**Maghreb** |
None |