Exarion

Sapphire fight win chances

Oct 25th, 2016
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  1. 1:58 attempts, no Revive, no crazy YOLO. This is mostly for fun. These are estimates based on runs, trials and some basic math.
  2.  
  3. ODDS TO... % Fraction
  4. Finish "on pace" run deathless 3.2% 1/32
  5. Finish after Roxanne 5.3% 1/19
  6. Finish after Brawly 7.0% 1/14
  7. Finish after Wattson 10.6% 1/9
  8. Finish after Flannery 20.1% 1/5
  9. Finish after Norman 32.5% 1/3
  10. Finish after Winona 45.4% 1/2
  11. Finish after T&L 74.6% 3/4
  12. Finish after Archie 88.3% 7/8
  13.  
  14. TOP RUN KILLERS:
  15. 1. T&L (32%)
  16. 2. Cooltrainer Brooke (31%)
  17. 3. Norman (30%)
  18. 4. Brawly (23%)
  19. T-5. Rival 2 (19%)
  20. T-5. Winona (19%)
  21.  
  22. NEW OLD
  23. Rival 1 93 93
  24. Calvin 95 95
  25. Aqua Pooch 90 90
  26. Josh 89 92
  27. Tommy 100 100
  28. Roxanne 84 85
  29. Clark 100 100
  30. Aqua Pooch 99.9 99.9
  31. Joey 99 99
  32. Laura 99.9 99.9
  33. Brawly 77 78
  34. Grunt 99 99
  35. Grunt 94 94
  36. Rival 2 81 81
  37. Vivian 99 99
  38. Shawn 97 97
  39. Wattson 91 91
  40. Cooltrainer 69 72
  41. Grunt 100 100
  42. Grunt 99.9 99.9
  43. Archie 1 88 89
  44. Flannery 87 92
  45. Randall 98 99
  46. Parker 96 97
  47. Berke 94 94
  48. Norman 70 70
  49. Grunt 99 99
  50. Grunt 99 99
  51. Shelly 95 95
  52. Rival 3 98 98
  53. Jared 98 98
  54. Kylee 99 99
  55. Winona 81 87
  56. Grunt 100 100
  57. Grunt 98 98
  58. Grunt 97 96
  59. Matt 95 95
  60. Samantha 99 99
  61. T&L 68 70
  62. Shelly 95 95
  63. Archie 2 89 89
  64. Wallace 99 99
  65. Hope 100 100
  66. Shannon 100 100
  67. Julie 99.9 99.9
  68. Edgar 100 100
  69. Wally 99.9 99.9
  70. Sidney 99.9 99
  71. Phoebe 97 95
  72. Glacia 96 92
  73. Drake 99 99
  74. Champion 97 97
  75. Wild flier 100 97
  76.  
  77. -----
  78.  
  79. OLD ROUTE: 3.8% chance of completing a run without a death
  80.  
  81. TOP RUN KILLERS:
  82. T-1. Norman (30%)
  83. T-1. T&L (30%)
  84. 3. Cooltrainer Brooke (28%)
  85. 4. Brawly (22%)
  86. 5. Rival 2 (19%)
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