Exarion

Fire Red any% win chances

Mar 9th, 2017
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  1. Mostly for fun. These are estimates based on runs, trials and some basic math. Assumes no Revive.
  2.  
  3. % HOW
  4. Rival 1 88 Crit
  5. Route 1 95
  6. BC1 100
  7. BC2 100
  8. BC3 100
  9. Weedle Guy 100
  10. Brock 89 Crit (only if faster), calculated risk
  11. BC1 100
  12. Lass 95 Calculated risk
  13. BC2 100
  14. Rocket 85 Calculated risk
  15. Super Nerd 98
  16. Rival 2 65 Mega Kick miss, crit
  17. NB1 99.9
  18. NB2 100
  19. NB3 100
  20. NB4 100
  21. NB5 99.9
  22. Rocket 100
  23. Hiker 85 Calculated risk
  24. Picnicker 100
  25. Camper 99
  26. Lass 99
  27. Rocket 95 Mega Kick miss
  28. Camper 85 Mega Kick miss
  29. Youngster 99.9
  30. Rival 3 69 Mega Kick miss
  31. Misty 63 Mega miss
  32. Picnicker 100
  33. Bug Catcher 100
  34. Pokemaniac 98 Mega misses, crits
  35. Pokemaniac 96 Mega misses, crits
  36. Picnicker 100
  37. Hiker 92 Crit/high Magnitude
  38. Hiker 99.9
  39. Picnicker 99.9
  40. Hiker 91 Crit/high Magnitude
  41. Picnicker 99.9
  42. Lass 100
  43. Beauty 100
  44. Beauty 100
  45. Erika 100
  46. Rocket 99
  47. Rocket 100
  48. Rocket 100
  49. Rocket 100
  50. Giovanni 1 93 Bad ranges
  51. Lavender Rival 99
  52. Channeler 100
  53. Channeler 100
  54. Channeler 100
  55. Rocket 100
  56. Rocket 100
  57. Rocket 100
  58. Silph Rival 91 Crit
  59. Rocket 100
  60. Giovanni 2 82 Calculated risk
  61. Sabrina 100
  62. Juggler 100
  63. Koga 94 Calculated risk, crit/poison
  64. Blaine 92 Crit, calculated risk
  65. Black Belt 100
  66. Cooltrainer 99.9
  67. Giovanni 99.9
  68. Viridian Rival 85 Fire Blast miss, crit
  69. Lorelei 70 Fire Blast miss/low roll, crit
  70. Bruno 80 Crit, Mach Punch
  71. Agatha 93 Calculated risk, crit
  72. Lance 74 Fire Blast miss/low roll, crit
  73. Champion 78 Fire Blast miss/low roll, crit
  74.  
  75. TOTAL: 1.3% chance of completing a run without a death
  76. Complete 1 run every ~800 attempts
  77.  
  78. Odds of making past:
  79. Brock 74
  80. Rival 2 38
  81. Rival 3 18
  82. Misty 11
  83. Rock Tunnel 9
  84. Giovanni 3 5
  85.  
  86. TOP RUN KILLERS:
  87. 1. Misty (37%)
  88. 2. Rival 2 (34%)
  89. 3. Rival 3 (31%)
  90. 4. Lorelei (30%)
  91. 5. Lance (26%)
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