AEW vs NXT Observer

The 12/11 ratings war saw a tie with viewers at 778,000 each while AEW won the key demos for the 11th week in a row.

In the head-to-head two hours, NXT had 771,000 viewers.

AEW in the head-to-head won the first six quarters and the only reason it was close was because of how strongly NXT won the main event segment with the three-way with Finn Balor vs. Tommaso Ciampa vs. Keith Lee overwhelming the Young Bucks vs. Santana & Ortiz street fight by a 756,000 to 685,000 overall number, and then the overrun after AEW ended doing 881,000 viewers. Usually the overrun of late has been gaining 150,000 to 200,000 viewers and this week it was only 125,000, which says that people who normally would wait until AEW is over, switched over early to see the main event.

It was the younger viewers as the NXT audience went from a 54.6 median age before the main event to as low as 50.6 by the end of the main event. It’s basically a lesson that it’s not the quality of the match, but the ability to make the match seem important. The viewer switch occurred early so they didn’t even wait to compare the matches, so an argument of style vs. style doesn’t wash, it was just that enough of the AEW audience was interested in the NXT main event.

Even with that, AEW did win the main event battle head-to-head by a 342,000 to 316,000 margin in the 18-49 demo and took every quarter in that demo. NXT only won the main event segment with teenagers, which AEW did terrible with all night and women 18-34. AEW even won in 50-54, but NXT won big over 55.

Both shows opened with 17,000 teenagers, which is terrible, and a sign teenagers have lost interest. NXT drew to 32,000 for the main event while AEW fell to 7,000. With teenagers, AEW peaked withe Jericho/Moxley and NXT peaked with the main event.

In women 18-34, AEW opened with 47,000 and ended with 33,000. NXT opened with 27,000 and ended with 47,000. AEW peaked with the first quarter and NXT peaked with the main event.

In women 35-49, AEW opened with 86,000 and ended with 59,000. NXT opened with 75,000 and ended with 44,000. Both shows peaked in the first quarter in this demo.

In males 18-34, AEW opened with 84,000 and ended with 85,000. NXT opened with 61,000 and ended with 76,000. AEW peaked with the Omega & Page tag team match. NXT peaked with Bianca Belair vs. Kayden Carter.

In male 35-49, AEW opened with 207,000 viewers and ended with 171,000. NXT opened with 157,000 and ended with 149,000. Both shows peaked in this demo in the first quarter.

AEW’s median viewer was 45.8 years old, its oldest to date. NXT’s median viewer was 54.5 years old.

AEW averaged 1.40 viewers per home, the highest of any pro wrestling show of the past week. NXT averaged 1.28 viewers per home.

The overall show demo numbers were closer but AEW still won in every key category except teenagers and over 50, with males 18-34 at 83,000 to 67,000, women 18-34 by 40,000 to 33,000, males 35-49 at 176,000 to 151,000 and females 35-49 at 66,000 to 55,000. But given the declines with no excuses past they were there, I’d consider it a loss for both sides.

The difference was such that AEW would have won without the Spectrum cable blackout of TNT in many markets, but that wasn’t enough to make up the difference when falling from last week.

But to view that as a positive for AEW is deluding yourself. AEW did a 0.28 in 18-49, the key number, down 12.5 percent from the prior week. NXT did a 0.24, down 17.2 percent from the prior week. Overall saw AEW down 8.6 percent and NXT down 7.9 percent with no explanation past viewer burnout and the reaction to last week’s show.

Aside from big gains over usual numbers by FOX News, there wasn’t a lot when it comes to competition to explain it. The NBA game on ESPN did 1,159,000 viewers and 0.48 in 18-49, down from 1,537,000 and 0.54 for a college basketball game ESPN had in the time slot the previous week.

So here are a few thoughts. I felt that neither show last week did a great job of hyping this week. NXT did push a three-way for a title shot, which to me was the strongest thing and in theory, with the push on Raw as well, gave them a slight edge. Even though the match itself was really good, Cody & QT Marshall vs. The Butcher & The Blade felt to me like a turnoff, and while Young Bucks vs. Ortiz & Santana in a street fight sounded great, the Young Bucks are still guys over big in the building but have yet to be made television stars. Even though NXT continues to do worse, the continued decline in 18-49, which was 0.39 just two weeks ago, for AEW, is a major concern. Generally the ratings are more a function of where you start that when you have on, and AEW had a strong show, but where you start is based on the hype for this week, which wasn’t strong, and the show last week, which clearly to the casual viewer had more negatives as far as similar heel group stories even with the strong in-ring. The declines for both are probably more a function of last week.

Next week both groups have loaded shows, with NXT having essentially two matches that would headline Takeovers, the biggest women’s match in a long time and the biggest ratings men’s match they can put on. AEW has a strong lineup as well. Both groups should show significant gains and in theory, NXT should win with overall viewers based on Finn Balor going for the title, and AEW with key demos because they always do and Balor’s match shouldn’t be enough to change that. But as far as who wins, that’s far less important because next week it’s about increasing in the key demos for each side, not winning. Another aspect is that both sides are feeling the effect of the burnout that simply can’t be avoided and will continue to hurt live gates and ratings. The declines will hit Wednesday first because it is not an established date, and doesn’t have the prestige of being on FOX and promoted so hard .

AEW went from bringing TNT the No. 2 or No. 3 slot in cable in 18-49, a huge success, to falling behind ESPN, MTV, Bravo, Fox News and BET.

Both sides really took their hits from women as opposed to men, with both having much lower skews for women than normal weeks.

AEW did a 0.11 in 12-17 (down 35.3 percent from last week), 0.18 in 18-34 (down 5.3 percent), 0.38 in 35-49 (down 15.6 percent) and 0.29 in 50+ (down 6.5 percent).

The audience was 71.4 percent male in 18-49 and 66.4 percent male in 12-17.

NXT did a 0.11 in 12-17 (down 8.3 percent from last week), 0.14 in 18-34 (down 30.0 percent), 0.34 in 35-49 (down 10.5 percent) and 0.38 in 50+ (identical to last week).

The audience was 70.8 percent male in 18-49 and 66.2 percent male in 12-17.

The first quarter saw AEW with Jon Moxley vs. Alex Reynolds and Chris Jericho recruiting Moxley doing 870,000 viewers and 424,000 in 18-49. NXT with Lio Rush vs. Angel Garza for the cruiserweight title did 840,000 viewers and 320,000 in 18-49.

The second quarter with AEW with Cody & QT Marshall vs. Butcher & Blade lost 48,000 total viewers and 59,000 in 18-49. NXT with the ending of Rush vs.; Garza and a Shayna Baszler video package lost 55,000 viewers overall and 24,000 in 18-49.

The third quarter with AEW with the MJF promo and a Dark Order vignette lost 8,000 overall viewers and 15,000 in 18-49. NXT had the Garza proposal and Raul Mendoza vs. Cameron Grimes and lost 26,000 overall viewers and 7,000 in 18-49.

The fourth quarter with AEW with Big Swole vs. Emi Sakura and a Pac promo lost 18,000 viewers and 21,000 in 18-49. NXT with Travis Banks vs. Jaxson Ryker and a Mia Yim package lost 36,000 viewers and 7,000 in 18-49.

The fifth quarter with AEW with Kenny Omega & Adam Page vs. Joey Janela & Shawn Spears lost 14,000 viewers but gained 3,000 in 18-49. NXT with Mia Yim vs. Dakota Kai gained 59,000 viewers and 29,000 in 18-49.

The sixth quarter with AEW with the ending of the Omega tag match and Sammy Guevara vs. Luchasaurus lost 10,000 overall viewers and gained 10,000 in 18-49. NXT with Tyler Breeze & Fandango vs. The Singh Brothers lost 40,000 viewers and lost 18,000 in 18-49.

The seventh quarter with AEW with the end of Guevara vs. Luchasaurus and the Jericho/Jungle Boy post-match angle lost 87,000 viewers and lost 30,000 in 18-49. NXT with Bianca Belair vs. Kayden Carter gained 41,000 viewers and 8,000 in 18-49. This looks to be people tuning out for the NXT main event.

The final quarter with AEW with Young Bucks vs. Santana & Ortiz lost 2,000 viewers and stayed even in 18-49, so as noted the viewers really left before this match even started. NXT with the Lee vs. Ciampa vs. Balor match lost 27,000 viewers but gained 15,000 in 18-49.

The overrun gained 125,000 views and 69,000 in 18-49.