10/31/23-11/2/23 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

10/31-11/2/23 Update, day 615-617 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

The situation in Belarus remains unchanged, and the UA intel services continue to state there is no threat of an attack despite RU propaganda occasionally implying so.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

UA has formed a new agency responsible for military purchases, to ensure a lack of interruption in supplies while reducing corruption. The State Rear Operator will first be responsible for the supply of food to the armed forces, and is announcing 3 month contracts which will allow for more frequent check-up and supply organization. This comes after a year-long fallout from apparent profiteering over the purchase of food supplies for the ZSU.

The SRO potentially may expand into other areas of military procurement in the future should they be successful in implementing change within the food procurement process.

The UA CIC General Zaluzhny wrote a column for The Economist, where he indicated the failures, lessons learned, and requirements for the war going forward. He specifically drew attention to the need for air power, electronic warfare, counter battery technology, large scale breaching + demining equipment (such as MICLIC and Meteorit), and increases in UA reserve forces. He specifically draws reference to the difficulties involved in the current positional warfare, and the dangers of allowing RU to rebuild its capabilities.

The Czech Republics Chief of Staff met with Zaluzhny today in Kyiv. The topic focused on additional training of UA soldiers and other support.

The UA Minister of Foreign Affairs drew reference to the need for more air defenses, as the cost for a damaged transformer can be 5x that of a missile interceptor from a Patriot system. There is a fundraiser featuring Timothy Snyder currently working to install a network of 2500 air-detection sensors, to aid in targeting the routes of missiles and drones.

The UA government continues to warn that RU is stockpiling missiles and drones to strike at UA energy infrastructure when winter temperatures drop, hence the reduced attacks recently.

UA unveiled its Piranha AVD360 EW system, designed to create a 600m anti-drone field around itself, predominantly for deployment on vehicles. The UA deputy minister for technology released a video of a test jamming, and stated it also can jam satellite navigation like GLONASS. It is reported to begin serial production in the near future.

The UA government is taking steps to replace the all-recently-fired recruitment officers with soldiers who have combat experience, and have passed anti-corruption measures. There are also steps being taken to further digitize the system and share it with various regional centers.

A Hepatitis A epidemic has been declared for the region of Vinnitsya, as decontamination of public transit and school shutdowns are underway to mitigate its spread. Other regions are taking proactive steps in preparation for larger spread, as the immunization % is lower then it should be. Currently, there are approximately 15 more cases per day, and their are ongoing investigations into food markets and water supplies.

The regulations on IDPs have changed, with families who have not applied for benefits only requiring one member to apply, rather then each separately.



Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

UA air defense forces in the north shot down an RU Kh-101 cruise missile with a Stinger MANPAD, equipped with a thermal imager.

UA investigators have identified the RU unit responsible for the missile strike on a crowded theater in Chernihiv in August.

RU missile strikes on wednesday chiefly targeted Poltava, damaging power infrastructure there. There were additional explosions in Kharkiv this evening.

A UA UAV was shot down over Belgorod oblast today. This comes after a UA drone strike damaged a radio relay station.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU attempted another failed offensive towards Kupyansk across the open terrain from the NE, leading to considerable losses. The previous collection of RU artillery systems here, then killed by effective counterbattery fire, has limited RU supporting fires on this axis. The open terrain and UA prepared positions don't help much either.

A pair of RU tanks blew up in their own minefield when withdrawing from an assault here.

The UN presented an official report blaming the Grozny village bombing, which killed 59 people, on a russian ballistic missile strike.

RU did not conduct offensive actions towards Lyman in the last 72 hours, but there is a continued barrage of RU airstrikes and artillery along the Zherebets river valley, from the town of Terny and north.

275 children and their families will be forcibly evacuated from the Kupyansk region in the next 45 days, due to the risk present.



Kramatorsk:

Fighting continues around Bakhmut, as UA forces attempt to push towards the southern approach road at Opytne via Klischiivka, and RU forces make small gains to the N near Berkhivka, across the fields.

RU continues to reinforce its forces in the Bakhmut area, and especially around the UA offensive towards Opytne and Klischiivka. RU aviation and artillery is most active in the southern direction here.


Avdiivka:

Russian forces have continued to make small advances around NW and SW Avdiivka, at great cost. Currently, the NW contact line is at the main highway leading into the town, and it appears the bulk of RU forces are concentrated here.

Abandoned remnants of a UA armored push using Leopard tanks have been seen along the main road here, and RU forces appear to have pushed to secure the main road, as well as farmlands further to the N. Footage released from the 47th brigade show destruction of RU armored vehicles in this area, indicating conditional clashes.

To the SW, RU forces have not made any progress in their attempts from Vodyane north. The ongoing rainy weather has also impeded combat operations.

UA defense officials claim that RU has lost ~7300 soldiers in the Avdiivka offensive in the last 24 days since the offensive began.

RU is apparently diminishing the pace of offensive operations, as they prioritize shaping strikes on Avdiivka proper and counter-battery work towards the UA long range artillery impeding their progress, set up some 16 km to the W in Karlivka. The presence of UA artillery and ammo has been key in stopping recent RU assaults.

Per UA commanders, RU carried out 959 artillery missions vs UA's 1068, demonstrating current parity.

Currently, there are approximately 1,584 residents in avdiivka. There continues to be stockpiles of humanitarian aid, with at least 2 months of food supplies present in case of encirclement.



Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

Over 400,000 residents of Donetsk oblast have been "processed" via filtration camps since the invasion began, where they are frequently subjected to torture as their loyalty to the occupation government is assessed. RU raids and searches for resistance fighters continue unabated.

RU continues to hand out free TV equipment in the occupied zones that only allows for watching RU federation channels, as they work to increase propaganda among the citizens.

In Luhansk, school children closer to the frontline have had classes cancelled and replaced with construction activities for the RU military, such as weaving camo nets.

A Russian fuel train and potentially ammo shipment was destroyed in Donetsk city.

UA destroyed an RU EW Leer-2 station in Donetsk today.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU apparently launched another costly and failed assault towards Vuhledar.

RU forces also continue to launch drone strikes from Enerhodar and the area of the Zaporizhia NPP, across the river into Nikopol.

RU continues to carry out conscription of local residents in the villages of Zaporizhia, in hand with the passportization of the populace.

RU is forming additional ammo depots and storage sites in Mariupol, using hangars, granaries, and garages. This comes with an increase in RU foot patrols and suppression measures.

RU has intensified its movement of equipment towards Berdyansk, with an increase in RU aviation, plus pushing deeper (towards Mangush) then they have over the last 4 months. The hypothesis is that RU is redeploying forces closer to Kherson.


Kherson:

RU continues to shell into Kherson oblast, causing power outages and causalities. There were 34 bombings, and 84 shellings. A kindergarten was destroyed by 2 KAB.

UA forces appear to be fighting in Krynky, just across the river from Ivanivka, as RU forces complain about a lack of supplies. RU forces have continued massive usage of glide bombs, or KAB, which are 250, 500, and 1500kg bombs outfitted with glide kits to extend their range. The indiscriminate usage of these, approximately 30 a day in Kherson oblast alone, has caused considerable damage and causalities due to their large blast radius.

UA forces continue to visibly move across the Dnipro river wetlands. UA marines are complaining about the difficulty in fighting through wetlands, due to the lack of ability to entrench, the prevalent RU bunkers, and the presence of RU aviation bombing any group they can see.

UA forces managed to conduct a deep strike on an RU Krashukha-4 electronic warfare system on wednesday, a valuable piece of technology. The drone footage of the strike raises questions about the systems vulnerabilities.

RU bombing damaged a power station in Kherson city, leading to power interruptions.

RU occupation officials are starting a flu shot campaign in Kherson oblast, but requiring passportization to participate.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

On Wednesday UA shot down 2 Kh-59 missiles near Odesa. Another 2 Onyx anti-ship missiles were fired today, but did not impact.

RU is apparently strengthening their air defense systems in Crimea, from areas of E Russia. However, the UA intel services point to recent strikes there as evidence such platforms remain vulnerable. The goal is to prevent Crimea from being used as a logistics hub for RU forces.

Per the UK, RU attacks on UA ports and grain infrastructure destroyed over 280k tons of grain last month, which can feed a million people for a year.

The UA southern defensive forces claim that RU is deploying at least 100 new sea mines per month in the western Black Sea, in attempts to make transportation impossible.

5 months after the Kahkovka dam collapse, toxic substances and metals continue to be found in high quantities in the black sea. With bioavailability and progressive toxic accumulation up the food chain, larger animals like fish or dolphins have toxin levels hundreds of times higher then permissible.

There was an apparent UA missile attack in crimea yesterday, as RU appeared to use smoke projectors to hide the Kerch bridge.

RU claims downing of 5 drones over Crimea and the black sea today.

A soldier who was jumped and beaten by robbers in Odesa died today, prompting continued outrage at his killers.

Russia:

RU is forming new Rosgvardia units (RU Natl Guard) to carry out suppression activities in the occupied territories. The current tent city, located near Vorozneh, is designed to accomodate 10,000 people and is expected to begin operation on November 3rd.

Per South Korean intelligence, NK sent more then 1 million artillery shells to Russia since august, or approximately 1 months worth of total shelling. DPRK factories are currently running at full capacity, as residents are mobilized to assist. The likely incentive is financial payments to the DPRK government. ROK intelligence states that SRBM and AA rockets might also be sent.

Regarding the ongoing rumors of Putin's demise, UA intel services state it is an internal propaganda campaign designed to sniff out dissidents.

RU withdrew from the nuclear test ban treaty today, drawing international condemnation.

RU Soldiers are complaining that its individual units driving the push for more drones, while the RU military is generally considering them only officially for SOF groups.

General:

UA forces conducted 12 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 44 air strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

930x soldiers (Total 302,420 )
43x APC
18x Tank
3x Air defense
46x Artillery (4xMLRS)
34x vehicles
20x UAV


In October, ZSU destroyed 22,920 Russian soldiers and 3,494 units of weapons and equipment of the Russian Armed Forces.

In terms of equipment, the Russians lost:
521 tanks
843 APC
773 artillery systems
26 air defense installations
741 vehicles,
86 pieces of special equipment
5 planes
8 helicopters
425 UAV
18 missiles

RU launched 243 Shahed drones and 24 long range missiles (15 Kh-69, 9 Cruise missiles) at UA targets in October

Overseas:

Moldova President Maia Sanday stated that Russia is bribing voters ahead of local elections this upcoming weekend.

Polish carriers have postponed their planned strike action/blockade of 3 border checkpoints with ukraine, due to start now on Monday at midnight. The primary demands are expedited transit for Polish carriers returning from Ukraine, as well as increased regulation of UA carriers operating in poland. The strikers state that while the passage of trucks will be blocked, Humanitarian and military aid for Ukraine will be allowed through.

The Biden administrations current provision for UA aid in the latest combined package stands at 61.3 billion USD. The UA government claims there is currently enough votes to pass the legislation as it stands, but bemoans America's partisan politics and certain political opportunism.

The US is expected to provide another $425 million USD of military aid on friday, the bulk being laser guided munitions, AA interceptors, and artillery shells. The package is subject to change.

US Secretary Blinken stated that currently Russia has enough strength to have tactical successes in the future, that effective withdrawals can be a good thing, and nobody should call avdiivka a fortress or be allergic to a defensive mindset.

The EU Commission will allocate 335 million euros for UA reconstruction and anti-corruption.

Germany is handing over another set of military aid, including 2 IRIS-T Radars, 12 APC, a number of drones, and 30k sets of winter uniforms. Work continues on the provision of 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks.

Switzerland has extended the temporary protection status, including financial support measures, for UA refugees until March of 2025.

The USA filed charges on 3 individuals who were smuggling large quantity of dual-use electronics to russia, for weapons provisioning.

The USA issued a new bevy of 100+ sanctions on russian individuals and organizations, especially those that supply dual use electronics.