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- Conclusions (Calculations Below)
- If you know your stats:
- 12 Sp. Atk - Water Gun 99.77%
- 11 Sp. Atk - Water Gun 99.67%
- 14 Attack - Tackle 99.61%
- 13 Attack - Tackle 90.06%
- 10 Sp. Atk - Water Gun 49.20%
- 12 Attack - Tackle 34.34%
- 9 Sp. Atk - Water Gun 25.44%
- Simplified rules:
- If 11+ Sp. Atk, Water Gun
- If 13+ Attack, Tackle
- If 10 Sp. Atk, Water Gun
- Otherwise, Tackle
- If you don't know your stats:
- Water Gun 64.51%
- Tackle* 62.55%
- * - This assumes you don't know your stats, but that your stats appear runnable. This is a bit of a paradox and your Tackle odds are actually worse, but some of those missed 2 shots are just unrunnable anyway. In the end, it doesn't matter since Water Gun is better, but I thought this was interesting
- === Data / Calculations ===
- "Runnable" Mudkips at Level 5:
- - Stat Odds (all kips) Odds (no minus attack)
- - 12 Attack (0-19 neutral) 42.5% 50.6%
- - 13 Attack (20-31 neutral, 0-19 plus) 35.5% 42.26%
- - 14 Attack (20-31 plus) 6% 7.14%
- - 9 Sp. Atk (0-31 minus) 16% 19.05%
- - 10 Sp. Atk (0-19 neutral) 42.5% 41.67%
- - 11 Sp. Atk (20-31 neutral, 0-19 plus) 35.5% 33.93%
- - 12 Sp. Atk (20-31 plus) 6% 5.36%
- Final column is the important Odds for further calcs
- ===
- Poochyena Stats:
- - 15 HP (0-29) 93.75%
- - 16 HP (30-31) 6.25%
- - 6 Defense (0-29 minus) 15%
- - 7 Defense (30-31 minus, 0-29 neutral, 0-29 plus) 79.75%
- - 8 Defense (30-31 neutral, 30-31 plus) 5.25%
- - 5 Sp. Def (0-6 minus) 3.5%
- - 6 Sp. Def (7-31 minus, 0-6 neutral, 0-6 plus) 30.88%
- - 7 Sp. Def (7-31 neutral, 7-31 plus) 65.63%
- ==
- 2HKO Odds (incl crits):
- Move Atk/HP/Def 2HKO Odds Scenario Odds
- Tackle 12/*/6 100% 7.59%
- Tackle 12/*/7 22.75% 40.35%
- Tackle 12/*/8 22.75% 2.66%
- Tackle 13/*/6 100% 6.34%
- Tackle 13/15/7 93.75% 31.6%
- Tackle 13/16/7 64.29% 2.11%
- Tackle 13/*/8 22.75% 2.22%
- Tackle 14/*/6 100% 1.07%
- Tackle 14/*/7 100% 5.7%
- Tackle 14/15/8 94.51% 0.35%
- Tackle 14/16/8 64.29% 0.02%
- --------------------------------------------------------------
- Water Gun 9/*/5 99.66% 0.67%
- Water Gun 9/*/6 22.75% 5.88%
- Water Gun 9/*/7 22.75% 12.5%
- Water Gun 10/*/5 100% 1.46%
- Water Gun 10/*/6 99.66% 12.86%
- Water Gun 10/*/7 22.75% 27.34%
- Water Gun 11/*/5 100% 1.19%
- Water Gun 11/*/6 99.66% 10.48%
- Water Gun 11/*/7 99.66% 22.27%
- Water Gun 12/*/5 100% 0.19%
- Water Gun 12/*/6 100% 1.65%
- Water Gun 12/*/7 99.66% 3.52%
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