1/9/24-1/10/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

1/9/24-1/10/24 Update, day 685-686 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Two former ministers from the Polish government were arrested in the polish presidential palace following a 2007 court case.

Polish Minister of Agriculture Czeslaw Siekerski wrote a letter to the EU in which he stated that he was "categorically against" the expansion of free trade with Ukraine, stating UA imports have increased 20x.

Hungary has stated it may lift the veto on EU aid to ukraine if it's reviewed annually rather then set as one multi-year package. This would allow Orban to extract concessions every year in exchange for not vetoing.

35 kidnapped UA children participated in a "emergency training" lesson in Belarus, while they were sent there for "winter vacation".

Zelensky discussed options for increasing border transit capacity with the Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

RU missile strikes across Ukraine on Jan 8th targeted and damaged infrastructure in Khmelnytski, Dnipro, and Kryvi Rih. Meanwhile RU targeted Kharkiv with ballistic missiles. At least 2 dead and 26 wounded are reported.

The former UA Deputy Prosecutor General (1993-2005) and her daughter were found dead in their neighboring apartments in Kyiv. The mother appeared to have died about 2 months ago, and the daughter 3 weeks ago, from nonviolent causes.The prosecutor General, 71, was housebound with serious illness. They were found when leaking water from the apartments alerted neighbors.

UA continues to seek clarification at the government level on increased mobilization laws. UA lawmakers are examining reports of people claiming disability in order to get mobilization exemptions. This continues to be a major

Despite RU shelling, there continues to be a margin of production capabilities and there are no current planned outages.

Due to the last air attacks on Kyiv, air quality has deteriorated considerably due to combustion and concrete dust.

Per the UA Defense intelligence agency. RU is using the missiles it produces as fast as it an make them, and has not assessed a dramatic increase in production.

Per the UN, 40% of UA population will need humanitarian aid this year, or 14.6 million people. Approximately 6.3 million people have fled abroad.



Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city region:

RU fired S-300 into a Kharkiv city hotel, causing at least 10 casualties overnight.

UA additionally shelled the border city of Vovchansk, damaging infrastructure.

On Jan 9th, RU missiles destroyed a childrens medical clinic on the outskirts of Kharkiv, which was thankfully unoccupied at the time.

Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov stated that construction of the first underground school in the cities industrial district is expected to be fully completed in time for classes in March. The school will have 2 shifts of 450 students, so that more students can study offline. Currently, there are 6 metro stations which can teach 60 classes a day.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv/Kreminna:

RU continues efforts to push towards Kupyansk via Synkivka, but is apparently taking considerable casualties with no results. RU has reduced its drone activities here due to the cold weather.

There has been a noted increase in RU airstrikes in this region, as RU has apparently chosen to focus on the Kupyansk region extensively with new penal units and assaults.

CiC Zaluzhny along with the defense secretary Umerov visited UA positions near Kupyansk.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

A RU collaborator who was leaking information on UA positions around Slovyansk was arrested.

Its expected that RU will use additional DPRK ballistic missiles, which prompted a UN security council meeting.

The situation around bakhmut remains unchanged, with UA artillery to the NW of the city and RU thermobaric shelling along the W highway leading into Bakhmut. UA strikes to the E of Klischiivka continue, destroying RU armor.


Avdiivka:

No observed changes were visualized around Avdiivka, as UA drones continue to hinder RU efforts to the N of the city. RU efforts appear concentrated to the N and SW of the city, as they take heavy losses.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU forces continue efforts to push W of Marinka, aided by airstrikes and drones.

RU targeted a coal mine in Myrnohrad, destroying an above-surface administrative building. At least 1 man died.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU carried out 102 strikes on 19 villages in the Zaporizhia region.

UA Himars strikes targeted RU vehicles S of Zaporizhia city, closer to Tokmak.

RU is increasing pressure to forcibly mobilize farmers in the southern occupied territories, as they seek to recoup losses.

RU attacked Nikopol with night-vision capable FPV drones, showing a development in the technology. Given that most vehicle movement occurs at night, FPV drones would be potentially very damaging.


Kherson:

RU continues to complain about attrition in vehicles and equipment, as they seek to dislodge the UA presence in Krynky. Per some RU telegram sources, RU is losing approximately 90% of the vehicles it sends, primarily due to UA drones.

RU launched 9 strikes over the last day towards the UA bridgehead. RU shelled Kherson city 14 times over the past day.

RU also complains that they lack effective EW support and face delays in artillery fire.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

A judge in Odesa was arrested for allegedly offering mobilization exemptions for money. He had issued over 1000 decisions over 2022-2023.

Transnistria claimed there was a shooting incident on the UA border, with 2 citizens taken. UA denies these claims as information warfare.

Currently RU has 2 ships in the black sea, neither of which carries Kalibr missiles.


Russia:

UA drones attacked an oil depot in Orel, damaging an oil field and energy supplier. The site hit was 200km from UA borders. Per the UK, RU air defense remains inadequate.

UA hackers targeted the Moscow internet provider M9com, taking off some digital services in the RU capital. The hacking group stated this is a "warmup attack" before the real revenge for Kyivstar hacking.

Two UA UAV crashed on the Engels airbase in Russia, the site of RU strategic bombers.

Per french researchers, RU as of September 2023 only had approximately 3100 tanks remaining of all various kinds, and had a production/refurbishment capability of 390/year. At that number, RU could only afford to lose some 2.6 tanks per day. Since then, RU has lost approximately 1579 tanks according to UA estimates, at 11.9/day. At these loss numbers, RU is predicted to run out of tanks sometime in 2024 if the rate of losses continue, ultimately being unable to staff tanks across the frontline in any consistent form.

Per the University of Chicago, 63% of Russians support the war in Ukraine.

The World bank forecasts a continued slowdown of the RU economy, predicted to grow 1.3% in 2024, and .9% in 2025. This is in comparison to a 2.6% growth in 2023 driven by military spending.

General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted airstrikes and RU forces 29 air strikes (including drones) and 19 missile strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
800x troops (366,770 in total)
13x APC
2x Tank
1x Air defense
14x Artillery (2xMLRS)
0x Aircraft
23x vehicles
11x UAV


Overseas:

Zelensky flew to Lithuania as part of a baltics tour, meeting with the Lithuanian president. Lithuania is forming a demining coalition to mobilize military support for UA as soon as possible, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said.

Romania recorded the highest grain export in 2023 thanks to the increase in supplies from Ukraine, which accounted for 40% of the 36 million tons of grain shipped from Constanta.

EU exports to russia have reduced by 2/3 of their pre-war level.

The RU exhibition about the "rebirth of mariupol", scheduled to take place in Moderna Italy, was cancelled.

Estonia committed to spending 0.25% of their GDP over the next 4 years to Ukraine, stating that if every country does so UA will win the war.

Sweden will send troops to Latvia under a Canadian led force to deter Russia, as sweden awaits NATO ratification.

Thus far, 33,000 UA soldiers have received training under the UK-led operation Interflex

The US may publish a working draft of the proposed aid agreement for UA this week.

Ukraine has extended visa-free travel for British citizens for another year.