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  1. CLEARWATER,​ Fla.​ —​ On​ Monday night, the Phillies gathered​ downtown here​ at the​ Capitol Theatre for​ something​ akin​ to opening​​ ceremonies. Rhys Hoskins spoke. So did Jake Arrieta and Andrew McCutchen. It was another chance to emphasize manager Gabe Kapler’s “shoulder to shoulder” mantra that has spread through a camp defined by who is not here.
  2.  
  3. By that moment, the inner circle of Phillies decision-makers knew Manny Machado was headed elsewhere. They had known for quite some time. Dan Lozano was in Arizona on Monday night with Padres officials to finalize the richest free-agent contract in professional sports history. Throughout the negotiation process, two sources said, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak was adamant with Lozano: The Phillies would not go to $300 million for Machado. Lozano called again on Tuesday. The Phillies would not counter San Diego.
  4.  
  5. “We had a pretty good idea of where this thing was going,” Klentak said.
  6.  
  7. Hours after reports of Machado’s contract leaked, Klentak summoned reporters to a third-floor conference room at Spectrum Field and added a new phrase to the offseason lexicon that was — until Tuesday — defined by two words.
  8.  
  9. “If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation,” Klentak said. “Sometimes you have to be willing to walk away.”
  10.  
  11. Machado’s record deal generates a fascinating dynamic because, over the coming days and weeks, the Phillies will have to make a choice between entertaining fans and running a business. Klentak spoke Tuesday like a callous bookkeeper because he knows agent Scott Boras is listening. And Boras knows the vast amount of pressure on Klentak to land his client, Bryce Harper, no matter the cost. Every public statement and every piece of leaked information has an agenda.
  12.  
  13. This much became evident on Tuesday: The Phillies had a limit with Machado. They have a limit with Harper. These consultations have included and are supported by owner John Middleton, who has been in Clearwater since the start of spring training.
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  15. Now, the Phillies will wage a one-on-one grapple with the game’s most powerful agent over one of the most recognizable players in the sport.
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  17. Ever since this free-agent slow dance started, the Phillies believed their best piece of leverage was the power to threaten either Machado’s or Harper’s camp that they preferred one player over the other. The Phillies, for months, have guarded their preference closer than any piece of information. Only a select few know it. When pressed Tuesday whether their valuation of Machado was higher or lower than that of Harper or if they were comfortable with a $300 million valuation on any player, Klentak demurred.
  18.  
  19. “I won’t comment on that,” he said. “I’ll say this: Every player is different. They bring different strengths, weaknesses, risks, rewards, et cetera.”
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  21. The Phillies have questions about other viable suitors for Harper and could wonder if they are bidding against themselves. But the small-market Padres were not considered a factor in these proceedings until a few months ago. It’s a dangerous game. Boras has been boxed in before — he postured before agreeing to below-demands contracts for J.D. Martinez and Arrieta during spring training last year — but he is a skilled negotiator who has thrived by appealing to emotion.
  22.  
  23. The Phillies, then, will project a dispassionate public face.
  24.  
  25. “We will continue to proceed with other free agents that make sense for this franchise,” Klentak said. “We have to remember that there will be other free agents after this offseason. There will be plenty of opportunities in the future to spend money and to make our team better. We cannot allow ourselves to be put in a position where we have to do something at all costs. There’s a significant cost that we’re willing to pay to add, but we have to be willing to walk away at some point.”
  26.  
  27. The Phillies, going as far back as last September, have preached about the virtues of upcoming free-agent classes. Nolan Arenado. Anthony Rendon. Mookie Betts. Mike Trout. Those players, right now, might look better. Those players, right now, are scheduled to be free agents in the future. But they may never reach that status.
  28.  
  29. A year or two ago, Machado and Harper were subject to less criticism because they had not yet entered the market. Teams typically find faults in players — that is, after all, a good evaluator’s job. Machado and Harper are two of the youngest big-ticket free agents in decades. If Harper were a free agent next winter, he would still be the youngest player on the market.
  30.  
  31. There is a gray area here and it is only fair to acknowledge it. Are there methods to win without an expensive superstar? Is Machado worth $300 million? Is Harper worth at least that much? Does it matter?
  32.  
  33. “We tried to maintain objectivity as best we can in these negotiations and that’s not just me,” Klentak said. “That’s our entire organization, from ownership on down.”
  34.  
  35. That said, this question must be asked: If the Phillies are uncomfortable with $300 million valuations for a potential future Hall of Famer, will they ever be comfortable at this level? These deals, by nature, are uncomfortable. They are long. They are expensive.
  36.  
  37. Sometimes, you walk away. Sometimes, you exceed your valuations.
  38.  
  39. If there were internal concerns about Machado’s character not meshing with Philadelphia’s style, shouldn’t there be concerns about a fan base’s response to signing neither Machado nor Harper? Baseball people do not like it when business people interfere with negotiations. A valuation is an on-field one, period.
  40.  
  41. But what if it isn’t? There are different ways to value baseball players and businesses, like a professional sports team for example. Middleton, in previous interviews, has spoken at length about his unwavering desire to win another championship. He is a principled businessman who waited and waited to sell his family’s lucrative tobacco company until the highest offer was topped. He loves baseball. He loves to win. How do you place a valuation on that?
  42.  
  43. There are massive egos involved on both sides of this negotiation. Boras has sought a historic deal. Now that Machado and Lozano have established the new bar, Harper and Boras will fight to beat it.
  44.  
  45. How vindictive could Boras become if the Phillies or other potential suitors fail to top Machado’s terms? Would Harper take a short-term deal to spite the Phillies? Or would Boras end a staredown like he did last spring with the Red Sox and Martinez? Boras could attempt to appeal to the emotions of the owners in Washington, who might detest the idea of a division rival poaching their star.
  46.  
  47. Emotions were always going to factor into these decisions. They must, especially when $300 million is on the table. The Phillies have dedicated significant energy and resources into this pursuit. They were aligned to strike this offseason and became a focal point when big-market clubs like the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers decided to avoid the sweepstakes. If there is a growing disconnect between fan bases and front offices, it is because emotion has been sucked from on-field decisions.
  48.  
  49. At this point, the coming days feel like they are about much more than the Phillies, Bryce Harper and a mind-numbing amount of money. The infusion of data-driven knowledge has strived to place a value on the most unquantifiable aspects of this game. Here, then, is an archaic emotional teaser.
  50.  
  51. The Phillies valued Machado because he is an elite hitter and defender. They attempted to trade for him last summer and were willing to surrender upper-echelon prospects for him. They hosted him in December, did extensive research into what made him tick and offered a large sum of money — only to walk away when the price rose to an unparalleled level.
  52.  
  53. “We’re really happy for Manny. We like the player,” Klentak said Tuesday, hours after Machado agreed to a contract that exceeded their valuation.
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