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  1.  
  2. A quick glance at the bored look on my wife’s face told me I had won.
  3. We were in a cozy Moroccan restaurant. It was a small place tucked between two tile-covered buildings in Lisbon, Portugal. A gaggle of brainy 20-somethings surrounded us at a crypto meetup.
  4. I had spent the night drinking Diet Cokes and talking with the brightest minds in the crypto space. My wife’s bored features told me I had nothing to worry about.
  5. “Okay, Teeka. I believe you,”she would later tell me.
  6. Longtime readers may recall I had been gone from home so much in the rst half of 2017 that my wife thought I was cheating on her. I had spent 120 nights away, visiting ve cities on two continents across six time zones, attending a dozen conferences.
  7. In November, I took my wife to the crypto meetup in Lisbon so she could see exactly what I do when I travel. Unless you are a hardcore research nerd like I am, what I do is quite boring. By the end of the night, my wife realized that. She was thoroughly convinced of my delity. Mission accomplished.
  8. I’ve been skipping across time zones and putting my marriage at risk for one reason: to nd the best crypto ideas in the world and bring them to you.
  9. Back in June, I tapped into my vast network of insiders to discover that three trends would be key to identifying superior-performing crypto plays in 2017: fat protocols, scalability, and interoperability.
  10. Since I wrote the June issue, the cryptocurrency market has exploded. We’ve seen the overall market size jump 485%—from $106 billion to $620 billion.
  11. Those are astronomical returns. But I think we may see even bigger gains in 2018. Here’s why.
  12. Since June, I’ve been to six more conferences in six cities across four countries. From Bogota, Columbia to New York to Portugal, I’ve traveled the world looking for the themes that will drive values higher in 2018.
  13. And I’ve discovered three new trends that will push cryptocurrencies up 10 times or more next year.
  14.  
  15. In this month’s issue, I have no formal recommendation for you. Some of you may be tempted to lament that I’m stumbling in my editorial duties. Hopefully, the four short-term trades (with an average gain of 249%) I’ve sent since November 13 are enough to satisfy you.
  16. I think you’ll discover that what I’m about to share with you is far more valuable than any single trade recommendation.
  17. That’s because I am going to give you a playbook that will show you why crypto assets will go much higher than you can imagine. Over the next 12 months, you can pile up more personal wealth with this knowledge than you have made in your entire lifetime.
  18. I want you to read this issue closely. If you do, you’ll be ahead of 99% of crypto investors who are just jumping in without a game plan. Most of them will lose their shirts trying to “outsmart” the market.
  19. All you need to know are three things... and you’ll make 10 times your money or more next year... just like you’ve done this year in our long-term portfolio with cumulative open gains of 81,207%.
  20. If you’ve been with us since the beginning, you know we’ve guided you to monster gains in 2016 and 2017. But 2018 could be the biggest year yet. And if you’re a new subscriber, don’t sweat it. This party’s just getting started...
  21. Now, let’s get to those three trends for 2018.
  22.  
  23. Three Trends for 2018
  24. In the past, I’ve talked about three technological themes that will drive value in cryptographic assets.
  25. They are scaling, interoperability, and fat protocols. (You can read the full issue here.)
  26. I’ve used knowledge of these three technological themes to rack up massive gains such as...
  27. 8,726% on Ethereum, which is creating the smart contract platform of the future. 61,398% on NEO, which is enabling the smart economy.
  28. 4,355% on Monero, which is meeting the demand for private transactions.
  29.  
  30. In this month’s issue, I will pull back the curtain on three social trends that will catapult the crypto market into a multitrillion-dollar asset class.
  31. They are:
  32. The Denationalization of Money: You could call this the rise of “private” money that’s not issued by governments or central banks.
  33. Closing the Gap Between Crypto Awareness and Crypto Participation: A brand-new breed of investor (separate from institutions) is about to make the leap into crypto.
  34. Wall Street’s New Crypto Narrative: Institutions move in herds guided by big-picture stories called “narratives.” I’ll show you how the non-correlation narrative will be the story that lures trillions of institutional dollars into the crypto space next year.
  35. Let’s get to them...
  36. Trend No. 1: Denationalization of Money
  37. Again and again, emperors, dictators, and governments have proven to be poor stewards of national wealth.
  38. Whether to ght wars, secure allies, or bail out banks, our leaders have always resorted to debasing our currencies to fund their economic shortfalls.
  39. The only reason this has worked over the years is because governments have used force, or the threat of it, to maintain their monopoly to print money.
  40. Friends, I’m here to tell you that after two millennia, government control over the money supply is about to come to an end.
  41. It all has to do with a trend called denationalization of money.
  42. It’s a multitrillion-dollar trend that will forever put a check on the government’s ability to steal
  43. your wealth through currency debasement. Let me explain...
  44. Over the centuries, when a government has gotten into trouble, it simply printed more paper money or diluted the precious metal content of its coins.
  45. The Romans did this with the silver denarius. In the year 301, one aureus of gold (about 8 grams) would convert into 833 1/3 silver denarii. By 324, the silver denarii had been debased so much, it took 4,350 denarii to buy 8 grams of gold.
  46. In 1803, Napoleon unilaterally replaced France’s existing currency (the assignat) with the franc. Overnight, he rendered the assignat worthless.
  47. In 1933, President Roosevelt con scated the nation’s gold, then promptly devalued the U.S. dollar by 69%.
  48. https://www.palmbeachgroup.com/three-trends-that-will-push-the-crypto-market-10-times-higher/ 3/22
  49. 21/12/2017 Three Trends That Will Push the Crypto Market 10 Times Higher - Palm Beach Research Group
  50. In 1973, President Nixon took America o the gold standard. Over the next 40 years, the U.S. dollar fell in value by 82%.
  51. During the 1998 Asian Crisis, several countries devalued their currencies by as much as 38%. Overnight, millions of people saw their cash savings collapse in value.
  52. For thousands of years, we’ve accepted the fact that only governments can issue money. This has led humanity to sheepishly accept the theft of its wealth in the form of insidious currency debasement.
  53. Whether by the threat of violence or imprisonment, we could only watch meekly as governments seized our wealth. Like a whipped dog that only knows submissive obedience to its master... we’ve blindly accepted this assault against our nancial sovereignty.
  54. Those days are over...
  55. Since the time of cavemen, the stronger man has always been able to steal from the weaker man.
  56. With cryptocurrencies, for the rst time, the weaker man can keep his wealth safe from the stronger man. This is a life-changing paradigm shift. This type of wealth sovereignty has never existed before.
  57. We nally have a way to secure part of our wealth in an asset that’s beyond the reach of any government.
  58. Imagine if the “small” people of the world switch their at earnings to digital assets they control. What happens to the banks? What happens to the brokerage rms? What happens to the tax collectors? What happens to a nation’s ability to raise money to wage war?
  59. You can’t print stadium-sized stacks of paper money anymore when the people have an alternative. This terri es central bankers, central planners, and all other manner of despots.
  60. Once humanity wakes up to the idea that it doesn’t have to put all its wealth into at currencies, we’ll see a tidal wave of money rotate out of paper money into cryptographic-secured money like bitcoin.
  61. The denationalization of money trend means that just because we live in America... it doesn’t mean that we have to keep our wealth in U.S. dollars. We can use non-government alternatives like bitcoin, Dash, Monero, and ZenCash.
  62. Emerging World Leading the Way
  63. This is such a fundamentally important trend, but it’s easy to ignore if you live in the West.
  64. You see, cash grabs by our Western governments tend to happen slowly. It’s like the steady decline of the dollar since Nixon took us o the gold standard. Whereas in emerging markets, money can evaporate overnight through hyperin ation.
  65. The 4.6 billion people living in emerging markets are crying out for an alternative they can control and trust.
  66.  
  67. Just look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, where in ation runs at 532.6% and 12,875% per year, respectively. The at currencies in both countries are so worthless (prices double in Zimbabwe every 24 hours) that bitcoin trades at huge premiums of 20% in Venezuela and 85% in Zimbabwe.
  68. Bitcoin, among many other crypto assets, is the solution these billions have been yearning for.
  69. Collectively, emerging markets account for $12 trillion worth of wealth. We’re betting on an exodus from shaky at currencies to crypto assets governments can’t debase.
  70. With the proliferation of smartphones and cheap internet access, people can now be their own banks. That’s because they can buy and store digital currencies with their smartphones.
  71. Just like how the emerging market skipped landlines in favor of wireless phones, we think they will skip banks and, instead, transact in cryptos via their smartphones.
  72. We think the trend of denationalization of money can push the entire cryptocurrency market past the size of the gold market. (Cryptocurrencies have far more utility than gold... They’re easier to divide, store, save, and send.)
  73. The entire gold market is worth about $8 trillion. Today, the crypto market is just $620 billion. That means we could see the whole crypto market grow 13 times on this one trend alone.
  74. Trend No. 2: Awareness vs. Participation
  75. Want to enjoy a long, healthy life?
  76. Eat right and exercise. Everybody knows that, right?
  77. But just because most folks are aware of the bene ts of eating right and exercising... that doesn’t automatically mean everyone will start taking action.
  78. In fact, given what we know about human nature, that would be a crazy assumption.
  79.  
  80. Awareness Doesn’t Equal Participation
  81. I attend non-crypto related conferences across the globe. And I’ve noticed that more and more people are becoming aware of bitcoin.
  82. A crowd quickly gathers around me when people nd out that I write about cryptocurrencies. They tell me, “Everybody knows about bitcoin now. The opportunity is over.”
  83. That’s a false assumption. And we can pro t from it. Here’s why...
  84. You see, people sitting on the sidelines of the crypto market are confusing awareness with taking action. Just because a lot of people know about bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies), doesn’t mean they’re actually buying it.
  85. I have people coming up to me all the time saying how great they think bitcoin is. But when I ask them if they own any... more often than not, they say no.
  86.  
  87. Usually, they’ll tell me they’re too busy to buy it... or they just don’t understand it... or they just haven’t gotten around to it.
  88. My best guess is less than 2% of the people who ask me about bitcoin actually own any crypto assets. This lines up perfectly with a study by Macromill Group, which found that although 88% of those polled had heard of bitcoin, only 2% owned it.
  89. So, what that tells me is that, while awareness is growing rapidly, participation is lagging behind. That’s why it is a mistake to confuse awareness with participation.
  90. My call is that in 2018, the gap between awareness and participation will close.
  91. Imagine for a second if you could take a pill and magically experience all the health bene ts of working out and eating right without any of the work. How successful do you think that pill would be? How many people do you think would take it?
  92. Millions, right? Hundreds of millions, heck maybe billions of people would line up for a pill like that.
  93. Well, the crypto equivalent of that will happen in 2018. Next year, we’ll have our “magic skinny” pill moment.
  94. Here’s what I mean...
  95. A Bitcoin “Skinny Pill”
  96. It’s about to become dramatically easier to buy and store bitcoin. My prediction is we will see a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch in 2018. That’s right. Very soon, buying bitcoin will be as easy as clicking an icon in your online trading account.
  97. Imagine all the hassle of buying, storing, and sending bitcoin eliminated with a single mouse click. That’s the promise held by the launch of a bitcoin ETF. I predict that tens of millions of people will get their rst taste of bitcoin through an ETF.
  98. Since 2014, folks have been trying to get a bitcoin ETF approved. All along, I’ve said the chances of it happening were slim.
  99. So what’s changed my mind? The CME, CFTC, and the CBOE.
  100. This trilogy of C-lettered agencies and exchanges are paving the way for the approval of a bitcoin ETF. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the world’s largest futures market. The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) is the world’s largest options market. And the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the most powerful derivative regulatory agency in the country.
  101. All three have come together to approve the launch of bitcoin futures and bitcoin options. For the rst time, institutions have the ability to hedge their risk in bitcoin. This means they can buy bitcoin, then buy a futures or options contract that will protect them if the price of bitcoin drops.
  102. https://www.palmbeachgroup.com/three-trends-that-will-push-the-crypto-market-10-times-higher/ 6/22
  103. 21/12/2017 Three Trends That Will Push the Crypto Market 10 Times Higher - Palm Beach Research Group
  104. Being able to hedge risk will bring a ood of liquidity into bitcoin. Here is why that matters...
  105. In past rejections of bitcoin ETFs, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pointed to a lack of a hedging mechanism for bitcoin. (The real truth is the SEC didn’t want to be the rst regulatory agency to stick its neck out.)
  106. Now that the CFTC, CME, and CBOE have embraced bitcoin (and provided a hedging mechanism), we’ll see the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF in 2018.
  107. The demand for this ETF will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen. A bitcoin ETF is the “skinny pill” millions of investors will reach for to gain bitcoin exposure.
  108. In 2018, you’ll see the consumer pendulum swing from Awareness to Massive Adoption. The rst approved bitcoin ETF will bring a nationwide stampede into bitcoin.
  109. Soon after that, I expect the launch of the rst crypto asset index ETF. This will pump trillions of new dollars into the entire crypto market.
  110. The launch of a bitcoin ETF and a crypto index ETF will close the gap from awareness to full- edged participation. As this trend plays out, I think we’ll see at least 10% of America’s stock market wealth rotate into crypto assets.
  111. At today’s levels, that suggests that as much as $10 trillion could nd its way into crypto assets, meaning as much as 1,500% growth ahead for the entire crypto market.
  112. Trend No. 3: The New Wall Street Narrative
  113. Wall Street has a history of using stories called “narratives” to drive its investment decisions. Often these narratives are grounded in well-researched theories. But Wall Street being Wall Street can take a great idea and pervert it.
  114. What would cause a normally prudent shepherd of capital to transform into a wild risk-taking cowboy?
  115. Here are a few examples:
  116. The Junk Bond Narrative
  117. Before the 1980s, there was no such thing as a new-issue junk bond. All bonds were investment grade. They only became “junk” when they got into nancial trouble.
  118. An enterprising analyst named Michael Milken realized that junk bonds had very low default rates. Out of every 100 bonds that became junk, only 4% of them actually defaulted on their payments.
  119. Milken used this low-default-rate narrative to sell over $500 billion worth of junk bonds through his rm Drexel Burnham Lambert. It became the largest underwriter of junk bonds in the world. At one point, Milken was making over $500 million per year for himself (that’s $1.1 billion in today’s money).
  120.  
  121. The pro ts in junk bonds sparked a Wall Street-wide stampede into the asset. By the end of the ’80s, companies had issued more than $996 billion in junk bonds.
  122. Before the 1980s, there wasn’t a prudent bank manager in the country who was willing to buy junk bonds. Yet, by the end of the 1980s, America’s savings and loans institutions (S&L’s) were stu ed with $480 billion of them.
  123. The lure of the new narrative of low default rates turned prudent bankers into rank speculators. But along the way, some made billions in pro ts trading junk bonds. Well-informed speculators made a ton of money during this mania.
  124. The Internet “New Era” Narrative
  125. In the mid-1990s, portfolio managers were loath to pay over 12 times earnings for stocks. By the late ’90s, earnings didn’t matter and they were paying an in nite price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for stocks like Pets.com.
  126. That’s because in the late ’90s, traders believed we had entered a “new era” of permanent prosperity. The internet would unleash a new paradigm of endless growth, they argued.
  127. A narrative emerged that you could pay any price for a stock if the underlying business had “.com” in the name.
  128. This narrative ensnared the entire investing public. Companies such as Cisco traded at 236 times earnings. AOL traded at 194 times earnings. And there were plenty of companies like WebVan, which reached a valuation of $1.2 billion with no earnings.
  129. In all, more than 5 trillion institutional dollars owed into internet stocks. Again, informed investors made a killing during the dot-com era. This was a fabulous time to get rich trading stocks.
  130. The Housing Boom Narrative
  131. After the dot-com bust, investors turned to real estate. The average home price had gone up every year since 1993, even during 2000 through 2003 when the market swooned.
  132. By 2004, some argued that housing prices could never go down. Based on that narrative, trillions of dollars poured into the real estate market.
  133. At the same time, housing ownership in the U.S. reached a record high, topping 69%. This should have led to the cooling down of the market, as there were less quali ed buyers in the market.
  134. But Wall Street couldn’t resist the lucrative opportunity. It started issuing loans with little to no documentation. It used adjustable-rate loans, which lowered loan payments. And it let borrowers use their homes like ATMs, making the problem even worse.
  135. At the same time, the banks were repackaging these loans and selling them to other banks as prime loans. In other words, even though the loans were with the riskiest buyers, Wall Street pitched them as AAA-rated.
  136. Home prices continued to go up, reaching a peak in 2007.
  137.  
  138. Just like in the junk bond and internet booms, investors smart enough to play the new narrative made fortunes in housing stocks, nance stocks, and materials stocks.
  139. Behind each of these frenzies was a new “narrative” that convinced these managers to throw their normal risk management out of the window and go “all in.”
  140. What This Means for Cryptocurrencies
  141. This whole lead-up might sound really negative for bitcoin and cryptos in general. It’s not. I’ve always told you that bitcoin and the crypto markets are real, but I expect they will get out of hand just like the junk bond market, internet stocks, and the housing market did.
  142. That doesn’t mean we can’t make a fortune along the way. As you know, I’ve been prudent in our position sizing. And along the way, I’ve had us scoop “cream” o the top of the market—always making sure we are harvesting pro ts.
  143. If you stay on the right side of manias, they are fabulous wealth-generators. The growing roster of Palm Beach Con dential crypto millionaires is a glowing testament to that.
  144. The point of this history lesson is that Wall Street narratives are very powerful. And they often get wildly out of hand. But as a Palm Beach Con dential subscriber, you’ll have me navigating you through this frenzied new market so you can pull as much money out of it as possible.
  145. A New Narrative Is Emerging
  146. So, what new narrative will propel bitcoin and crypto assets into the forefront of Wall Street’s collective consciousness?
  147. Let’s start with Wall Street’s main criticism of bitcoin: volatility.
  148. The establishment sees bitcoin’s volatility as a problem because low-volatility portfolio models drive Wall Street.
  149. You see, Wall Street makes its money by holding on to your money as long as possible so they can keep milking you for annual fees. It deliberately tries to tamp down volatility to lull clients into a false sense of security.
  150. When values swing around too much, clients get scared and start to pull out of their investments. Wall Street hates this. Remember, it makes its money by holding on to your investment dollars for as long as possible.
  151. Since bitcoin is so volatile, it hasn’t t neatly into the Wall Street pro t model.
  152. But that’s changing. Study after study is showing that bitcoin is uncorrelated to other assets. For example, a study by the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology concluded that adding bitcoin to your portfolio gives better risk-adjusted returns and that bitcoin should be considered a new asset class.
  153. Here’s what that means...
  154.  
  155. Correlated assets move together in price. And assets with inverse correlations move in opposite directions in price. Uncorrelated assets are una ected by the forces that a ect correlated and inversely correlated assets.
  156. Why is that important?
  157. One of the tricks Wall Street uses to tame volatility is to build portfolios with inverse correlations. For example, when stocks go down, bond prices usually go up. That’s a major reason most money managers tell you to own stocks and bonds.
  158. It has little to do with delivering great advice tailored to your needs. They just want to keep the overall volatility down so they can milk your investment account for 40 years of fees.
  159. So, what does this have to do with bitcoin?
  160. Wall Street is starting to realize that bitcoin is uncorrelated to any other asset. That means the price of bitcoin is unrelated to the price of gold, stocks, bonds, or commodities.
  161. In that context, bitcoin’s volatility goes from being a foe to a friend.
  162. We envision Wall Street’s pitch will be that, by allocating 5–10% of your portfolio to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, you can actually bring down volatility. That’s because bitcoin is una ected by crashes or booms in the stock, bond, oil, or gold markets.
  163. The S&P 500 doesn’t a ect bitcoin. The Brent Crude Index doesn’t a ect bitcoin. Gold prices don’t a ect bitcoin. The Consumer Price Index doesn’t a ect bitcoin.
  164. The result of adding crypto to a well-diversi ed portfolio is that you’ll see overall volatility actually drop. The World Academy of Science, Engineering, and Technology study bears out this narrative.
  165. Here’s how we think it’s going to play out.
  166. In the near future, we’re going to see an endowment or pension fund add bitcoin to its portfolio. It won’t be a large stake, but that won’t matter.
  167. We expect the fund will explain that it’s using bitcoin as a non-correlated hedge to smooth out volatility.
  168. When that happens, watch out. Wall Street will grab on to the “non-correlated narrative” and run with it like a dog with a stolen pork chop.
  169. I’ve shown you how this has played out before. Institutions did it with junk bonds in the ’80s. They did it with internet stocks in in the ’90s. And they did it with housing in the ’00s.
  170. At rst, they’re considered weird investments. Then, a new narrative takes hold and institutions start using them, and they get legitimized. Before long, everyone on the Street is using the product and we’re in a full- edged mania boom.
  171. It will be the same for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. Global stock market wealth is approaching $100 trillion. We think 5–10% of that will be diverted into the cryptocurrency market under the narrative of lowering risk.
  172.  
  173. That’s almost 20 times more money than is in the crypto market currently. We think it’s going to cause prices to boom higher.
  174. Bringing It All Together
  175. In June, I told you about three trends: fat protocols, scaling, and interoperability. I said if we got into ideas built on these trends, we’d make a killing. If you followed my ideas since the June issue, you’ve made a cumulative 11,871% o those three trends.
  176. Going into 2018, we have three new trends that will have an even bigger impact on the market.
  177. As these three play out, we could see $5–10 trillion come into the crypto market next year.
  178. This extra $5–10 trillion rushing headlong into a crypto market that is barely a half-trillion big is going to cause crypto prices to soar. And we will be there every step of the way making money hand over st.
  179. So, if you feel like you got in too late, relax. Take a breath because this ride is just getting started.
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