PHOENIX — Inside the Brewers’ clubhouse, occupying a locker on the left, there is a 6-foot-3, former first-rounder and left-handed starting pitcher, who, despite his talent, experienced an uneven 2019 in his second big-league season.

Further down, there is a veteran right-hander with a career 3.35 ERA as a reliever, who last season posted his worst FIP (4.58). And near the middle on the other side, there is a 33-year-old first baseman who has slugged more than 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons but owned a measly .206 batting average in 2019.

They are new here. They have solid opportunities to secure important roles. They all recently discussed last season and detailed why 2020 may be different. For each, there are particular reasons beyond their respective histories of production, promise or both to believe better results are distinctly possible.

“I don’t think there’s ever just ‘fliers’ anymore,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell. “There’s always a reason.”

When Counsell made that comment on Sunday, he was answering a question about a non-roster invitee. But the astuteness of his statement can certainly be applied to bounce-back candidates or potential breakouts already on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, too.

Several Brewers fit that description. Among the newly acquired players in that profile for Milwaukee are: starting pitcher Eric Lauer, reliever David Phelps and first baseman Justin Smoak. And they each have legitimate cases.
Refining his changeup

Within a couple of days of throwing at the Brewers’ pitching lab in their spring training facility, Lauer listened to a suggestion.

“Try this,” Lauer remembers someone telling him between pitches.

Lauer then unleashed what he referred to as one of the best changeups he has ever thrown.

Lauer started to work at the Brewers’ complex last month after Milwaukee acquired him as part of a four-player trade with the Padres on Nov. 27. During an early bullpen session, he threw a changeup. Before throwing another, information regarding the changeup’s spin and axis were shared with him.

“I’ve been working on a changeup for like 10 years,” Lauer said. “All it took was two bullpens here and all of a sudden, it’s something I would consider as possibly a legit weapon for me.”

Lauer’s changeup has always been his last resort in a five-pitch mix that also includes a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider and curveball. He used the changeup less than 4 percent of the time in each of the last two seasons, according to Brooks Baseball. In a tiny saatters hit .500 against the pitch in 2018, .333 in 2019 — easily his worst marks.

“With the changeup, you’re always taught to get inside of the ball, get to the inside, and for me, that was so unnatural because I naturally throw from a little bit of the outside of the ball,” Lauer said.

He was recently instructed to spin the opposite way.

“Instead of getting to the inside part of the ball, get to the outside part of the ball and spin it across,” Lauer said he was told. “Instead of trying to get inside of it, try to keep one section on top and spin like a top almost, and it will have the break that you want.

“It came out so much more natural and I think it was immediate. The break came. The spin came. It was a lot more consistent, and way easier for me to throw. It all just happened so naturally.”

Lauer is cautiously optimistic about the pitch. He knows enough not to oversell it. Not this early, anyway. He is excited about the way it feels, but he hasn’t faced any batters yet. So far in spring training, though, he has thrown the pitch in every bullpen session, trying to refine its placement.

At 24, Lauer already has 261 ⅔ innings of experience. His ERA was worse in 2019 (4.45) than 2018 (4.34), but his WHIP, walk rate and strikeout rate were all better, which, unsurprisingly, led to an improved FIP. His fastball is hard to hit and he leaned on the four-seamer and cutter heavily last season (53 percent of his pitches were four-seam fastballs, 21.7 percent were cutters). It’s the secondary pitches that have always needed further development. For the first time in his pro career, all the voices surrounding Lauer are new.

“I think the first time is always the most impactful, for sure,” Counsell said. “He’s been very open to it and has soaked in the stuff we like to talk about well.

“But really, where he’s at in his career: he’s athletic, he’s 24 and has two years under his belt, he’s just in a really good spot to take a big jump.”
‘I hopefully get a little bit luckier’

There was a three-week stretch somewhere around the middle of last season that is hard for Smoak to pinpoint. He has tried to move on from the period so much that he can’t remember exactly when it was. May? Maybe June? All he knows is that stretch felt “more like five months,” he said.

“I was hitting balls hard, I feel like I was putting good swings on balls, having good at-bats,” Smoak said, “and just had nothing to show for it.”

At Brewers On Deck last month inside the Wisconsin Center in downtown Milwaukee, Counsell described Smoak’s 2019 as “unlucky.”

That’s one way to put it.

Another: Puzzling.

And from Smoak’s perspective: Frustrating, at times.

Smoak’s 22 home runs (his lowest total since 2016) and .203 batting average belied all the important areas he improved.

His 15.8-percent walk rate was the best of his career and a product of swinging outside of the zone fewer times than ever, according to FanGraphs. Smoak was more disciplined, striking out 5 percent less than in 2018. His average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate also were better than 2018, per Statcast.

He hit more line drives, fewer groundballs and infield flys. He made better and harder contact in 2019 than ’18, when his batting average was .242. These were all things Smoak entered 2019 wanting to accomplish. He then did just that. And yet, the overall numbers disguised his progress.

There were times last year, Smoak said when he felt even better at the plate than he did during 2017, when he hit a career-high 38 home runs with a .270 average.

“It wasn’t easy,” Smoak said. “But I can live with quality at-bats. I can live with hitting the ball. I feel like I did that a lot last year. And, really, just had nothing to show for it.”

The major difference was Smoak’s low batting average on balls in play (.223), which was 40 points worse than his career average in that category. Some poor luck, as Counsell surmised, contributed to that ugly figure. The number of times Smoak was shifted against likely also was a major reason. When Smoak batted from the left side, teams shifted 91.4 percent of the time against him, which was more than every regular except Joey Gallo, according to Baseball Savant.

“I try to be positive about it,” Smoak said. “I’ve played with the shift my whole career now so that’s part of it, but I’m not saying the shift got me.”

With his lack of speed coupled with the omnipresent shifting, it’s hard to envision Smoak hitting .270 again, but he’s closer to .240 than .208, which is why projections are showing such an uptick.

“I think it’s just something where I hopefully get a little bit luckier this year,” Smoak said with a smile.
Relief pitcher David Phelps hopes to stay healthy and be consistent for the Brewers this season. (Quinn Harris / USA Today Sports)
Fastball velocity is key for Phelps

When analyzing Phelps’ 2019 season, it’s important to remember a few things: He missed all of 2018 because of Tommy John surgery, he threw only 34 ⅓ innings in 2019 and he was traded on July 30.

The Blue Jays shipped Phelps to the Cubs. From a practical standpoint, it can be challenging for a reliever to pitch at a high level with a brand new team in a pressured environment (the Cubs were chasing a playoff spot) with little time to get acclimated with catchers.

“One of the things that is unique is when you spend spring training with a team, you get the chance to work with the catchers more and have them know how you want to pitch,” Phelps said. “Whereas when you get traded midseason, it’s you get there and they are trying to learn you and I am trying to learn them — in the game. That’s unique, and it does take a while.”

To be clear, that’s not something Phelps pointed to as an excuse for performance. His command wasn’t great at times in Chicago. While his 3.18 ERA with the Cubs was better than his ERA with the Blue Jays (3.63), Phelps’ walk rate with Chicago was worse. The 4.5 walks per nine innings across his time with both teams was the worst single-season rate of the 33-year-old’s career.

“There were outings with the Cubs that, for whatever reason, I just lost my fastball, the command of it,” Phelps said. “One of the big things, early on, we did, through the numbers, realized my curveball was my best pitch so we were focusing on that. But in turn my fastball command kind of vanished because of it.”

That’s certainly fixable, though, especially in a new environment. After all, he only pitched 17 innings with the Cubs. What’s more important to Phelps’ success in 2020 is his fastball velocity. Phelps’ four-seam fastball averaged 92.9 mph in 2019, down from the 94.9 mph he averaged in 2017, according to Brooks Baseball. But the velocity improved throughout the season. In September, Phelps averaged 93.5 mph, the highest for him during any month in 2019.

“As the season went, my fastball velo crept up the entire time,” Phelps said. “And, finally, the last two or three outings is when I felt my best as far as the way I was throwing my fastball.”

In other words, Phelps reached a point in his mechanics where he was able to let it rip and the ball was going where he wanted it to go.

“I’m confident that the strength in my arm is going to continue to come back,” Phelps said.
Opportunities exist

Low risk, potentially high reward. That was a shared theme between the additions of Smoak and Phelps. Smoak’s contract reportedly guaranteed $5 million with a club option for 2021. Phelps’ was reportedly worth $1.5 million with a club option for 2021. And Lauer, for that matter, is under contract through the end of the 2024 season.

The opportunities are there, at least. Without the power of Eric Thames or Jesus Aguilar at first base, Smoak is expected to share time there with Ryan Braun. The Brewers have of a plethora of intriguing right-handed relievers to fill out their bullpen, but most are unproven at the major-league level.

Phelps, however, is an accomplished veteran, who could be used in some high-leverage situations. Lauer is in the mix for a rotation spot, and the Brewers need him to at least at depth in that area.

Under general manager David Stearns, the Brewers have made informed, educated decisions on players based on studying as much of the most relevant information as possible. Not everything will work out. Invariably, hope remains part of even some of the most analytically-based equations. But there are always reasons.