MKT Frenzy Probabilities (Single Player, as of Patch 2.8.0)

fixed version because I'm really silly

**1st Place, Lap 1 (5% base chance of starting a Frenzy) & Lap 2 (6% base chance)**
Both Lap 1 and Lap 2 share the same probability table.

**Special Item not available:** (applies when using a driver whos special item is unavailable in this position)
Banana - 30%
Green Shell - 10%
Coin - 50%
Super Horn - 10%

**Special Item available:** (applies when using a driver whos Special Item is available in this position)
Banana - 24%
Green Shell - 8%
Coin - 40%
Super Horn - 8%
Giant Banana, Triple Bananas, Coin Box - 20%


**Special Item+ available:** (applies to Special Item+ variants that have Frenzy% boosts only)
Banana - 20.7%
Green Shell - 6.9%
Coin - 34.5%
Super Horn - 6.9%
Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+ - 31%


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**2nd Place, Lap 1 (6% base chance of starting a Frenzy)**

**Special Item not available:**
Banana – 25%
Green Shell – 30%
Red Shell – 15%
Bob-omb – 10%
Coin – 10%
Super Horn – 10%

**Special Item available:**
Banana - 20%
Green Shell - 24%
Red Shell - 12%
Bob-omb - 8%
Coin - 8%
Super Horn - 8%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Boomerang Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Hammer, Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb, Coin Box - 20%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana - 17.2%
Green Shell - 20.7%
Red Shell - 10.3%
Bob-omb - 6.9%
Coin - 6.9%
Super Horn - 6.9%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+ - 31%

**2nd Place, Lap 2 (7% base chance)**

**Special Item not available:**
Banana – 25%
Green Shell – 30%
Red Shell – 15%
Bob-omb – 10%
Coin – 10%
Super Horn – 10%

**Special Item available:**
Banana – 16.7%
Green Shell – 20%
Red Shell – 10%
Bob-omb – 6.7%
Coin – 6.7%
Super Horn – 6.7%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Boomerang Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Hammer, Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb, Coin Box – 33.3%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana - 14.3%
Green Shell - 17.1%
Red Shell - 8.6%
Bob-omb - 5.7%
Coin - 5.7%
Super Horn - 5.7%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+ - 42.9%


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**3rd Place, Lap 1 (7% base)**

**First group of Special Items:** (all Specials are available in 3rd but split into groups based on probability)
Banana – 28%
Green Shell – 20%
Red Shell – 8%
Mushroom – 4%
Bob-omb – 20%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrels, Mushroom Cannon, Giga Bob-omb, Super Bell – 20%

**Dash Ring/Heart/Super Bell+ available:**
Banana – 24.1%
Green Shell – 17.2%
Red Shell – 6.9%
Mushroom – 3.4%
Bob-omb – 17.2%
Dash Ring+, Heart+, Super Bell+ - 31%

**Lucky 7+ available:**
Banana – 25.9%
Green Shell – 18.5%
Red Shell – 7.4%
Mushroom – 3.7%
Bob-omb – 18.5%
Lucky 7+ - 25.9%

**Second group of Special Items:**
Banana – 23.3%
Green Shell – 16.7%
Red Shell – 6.7%
Mushroom – 3.3%
Bob-omb – 16.7%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Boomerang Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Hammer, Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb, Coin Box – 33.3%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana – 20%
Green Shell – 14.3%
Red Shell – 5.7%
Mushroom – 2.9%
Bob-omb – 14.3%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+ - 42.9%

**3rd Place, Lap 2 (11% base)**

**First group of Special Items:**
Banana – 23.3%
Green Shell – 16.7%
Red Shell – 6.7%
Mushroom – 3.3%
Bob-omb – 16.7%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrels, Mushroom Cannon, Giga Bob-omb, Super Bell – 33.3%

**Dash Ring/Super Bell+ available:**
Banana – 20%
Green Shell – 14.3%
Red Shell – 5.7%
Mushroom – 2.9%
Bob-omb – 14.3%
Dash Ring+, Super Bell+ - 42.9%

**Lucky 7+ available:**
Banana - 21.2%
Green Shell - 15.2%
Red Shell - 6.1%
Mushroom - 3%
Bob-omb - 15.2%
Lucky 7+ - 39.4%

**Second group of Special Items:**
Banana – 17.5%
Green Shell – 12.5%
Red Shell – 5%
Mushroom – 2.5%
Bob-omb – 12.5%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Boomerang Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Hammer, Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb, Coin Box – 50%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana - 14%
Green Shell - 10%
Red Shell - 4%
Mushroom - 2%
Bob-omb - 10%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+ - 60%


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**4th Place, Lap 1 (9% base)**
Banana – 10%
Green Shell – 20%
Red Shell – 6.7%
Mushroom – 3.3%
Bob-omb – 16.7%
Blooper – 10%
All Special Items (except for boosted Item+ below) – 33.3%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana – 8.6%
Green Shell – 17.1%
Red Shell – 5.7%
Mushroom – 2.9%
Bob-omb – 14.3%
Blooper – 8.6%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+, Heart+, Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 42.9%

**4th Place, Lap 2 (12% base)**
Banana – 7.5%
Green Shell – 15%
Red Shell – 5%
Mushroom – 2.5%
Bob-omb – 12.5%
Blooper – 7.5%
All Special Items (except for boosted Item+ below) – 50%

**Special Item+ available:**'
Banana - 6%
Green Shell - 12%
Red Shell - 4%
Mushroom - 2%
Bob-omb - 10%
Blooper - 6%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+, Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 60%


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**5th Place, Lap 1 (13% base)**
Banana – 3.3%
Green Shell – 3.3%
Red Shell – 6.7%
Mushroom – 14.7%
Bob-omb – 20%
Blooper – 12%
Blue Shell – 3.3%
Mega Mushroom – 3.3%
All Special Items (except for boosted Item+ below) – 33.3%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana - 2.9%
Green Shell - 2.9%
Red Shell - 5.7%
Mushroom - 12.6%
Bob-omb - 17.1%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 2.9%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+, Heart+, Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 42.9%

**5th Place, Lap 2 (18% base)**
Banana – 2.5%
Green Shell – 2.5%
Red Shell – 5%
Mushroom – 11%
Bob-omb – 15%
Blooper – 9%
Blue Shell – 2.5%
Mega Mushroom – 2.5%
All Special Items (except for boosted Item+ below) – 50%

**Special Item+ available:**
Banana - 2%
Green Shell - 2%
Red Shell - 4%
Mushroom - 8.8%
Bob-omb - 12%
Blooper - 7.2%
Blue Shell - 2%
Mega Mushroom - 2%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+, Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 60%


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**6th Place, Lap 1 (15%)**

**Special Item not available:**
Red Shell – 22%
Mushroom – 20%
Bob-omb – 15%
Blooper – 18%
Blue Shell – 5%
Mega Mushroom – 20%

**First group of Special Items:**
Red Shell – 17.6%
Mushroom – 16%
Bob-omb – 12%
Blooper – 14.4%
Blue Shell – 4%
Mega Mushroom – 16%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Boomerang Flower, Hammer, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb – 20%

**Fire Flower/Ice Flower/Boomerang/Hammer+ available:**
Red Shell - 15.2%
Mushroom - 13.8%
Bob-omb - 10.3%
Blooper - 12.4%
Blue Shell - 3.4%
Mega Mushroom - 13.8%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+ - 31%

**Triple Green Shells+ available:**
Red Shell - 12.6%
Mushroom - 11.4%
Bob-omb - 8.6%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 11.4%
Triple Green Shells+ - 42.9%

**Second group of Special Items:**
Red Shell – 14.7%
Mushroom – 13.3%
Bob-omb – 10%
Blooper – 12%
Blue Shell – 3.3%
Mega Mushroom – 13.3%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushroom, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrel, Mushroom Cannon, Coin Box, Giga Bob-omb – 33.3%

**Dash Ring/Heart/Lucky 7/Super Bell+ available:**
Red Shell - 12.6%
Mushroom - 11.4%
Bob-omb - 8.6%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 11.4%
Dash Ring+, Heart+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 42.9%

**6th Place, Lap 2 (22% base)**

**Special Item not available**:
Red Shell – 22%
Mushroom – 20%
Bob-omb – 15%
Blooper – 18%
Blue Shell – 5%
Mega Mushroom – 20%

**First group of Special Items:**
Red Shell – 14.7%
Mushroom – 13.3%
Bob-omb – 10%
Blooper – 12%
Blue Shell – 3.3%
Mega Mushroom – 13.3%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Yoshi Egg, Birdo Egg, Boomerang Flower, Hammer, Triple Green Shell, Double Bob-omb – 33.3%

**Fire Flower/Ice Flower/Boomerang/Hammer+ available:**
Red Shell - 12.6%
Mushroom - 11.4%
Bob-omb - 8.6%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 11.4%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Boomerang Flower+, Hammer+ - 42.9%

**Triple Green Shells+ available:**
Red Shell - 8.8%
Mushroom - 8%
Bob-omb - 6%
Blooper - 7.2%
Blue Shell - 2%
Mega Mushroom - 8%
Triple Green Shells+ - 60%

**Second group of Special Items:**
Red Shell – 11%
Mushroom – 10%
Bob-omb – 7.5%
Blooper – 9%
Blue Shell – 2.5%
Mega Mushroom – 10%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushroom, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrel, Mushroom Cannon, Coin Box, Giga Bob-omb, Super Bell – 50%

**Dash Ring/Lucky 7/Super Bell+ available:**
Red Shell - 8.8%
Mushroom - 8%
Bob-omb - 6%
Blooper - 7.2%
Blue Shell - 2%
Mega Mushroom - 8%
Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 60%


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**7th Place, Lap 1 (18% base)**

**Special Item not available:**
Red Shell – 27%
Mushroom – 35%
Blue Shell – 6%
Bullet Bill – 6%
Lightning – 6%
Mega Mushroom – 20%

**Special Item available:**
Red Shell – 18%
Mushroom – 23.3%
Blue Shell – 4%
Bullet Bill – 4%
Lightning – 4%
Mega Mushroom – 13.3%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushroom, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrel, Mushroom Cannon, Giga Bob-omb, Super Bell – 33.3%

**Dash Ring/Lucky 7/Heart/Super Bell+ available:**
Red Shell - 15.4%
Mushroom - 20%
Blue Shell - 3.4%
Bullet Bill - 3.4%
Lightning - 3.4%
Mega Mushroom - 11.4%
Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Heart+, Super Bell+ - 42.9%

**7th Place, Lap 2 (29% base)**

**Special Item not available:**
Red Shell – 27%
Mushroom – 35%
Blue Shell – 6%
Bullet Bill – 6%
Lightning – 6%
Mega Mushroom – 20%

**Special Item available:**
Red Shell – 13.5%
Mushroom – 17.5%
Blue Shell – 3%
Bullet Bill – 3%
Lightning – 3%
Mega Mushroom – 10%
Dash Ring, Bubble, Lucky 7, Bowser Shell, Triple Mushroom, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrel, Mushroom Cannon, Giga Bob-omb, Super Bell – 50%

**Dash Ring/Lucky 7/Super Bell+ available:**
Red Shell - 10.8%
Mushroom - 14%
Blue Shell - 2.4%
Bullet Bill - 2.4%
Lightning - 2.4%
Mega Mushroom - 8%
Dash Ring+, Lucky 7+, Super Bell+ - 60%


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**8th Place, Lap 1 (22% base) & Lap 2 (41% base)**
Laps 1 and 2 share the same probability table.

Mushroom – 40%
Bullet Bill – 10%
Lightning – 10%
Mega Mushroom – 40%