Exarion

Rough spinner likelihoods

Feb 14th, 2015
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  1. ODDS OF HITTING EACH SPINNER (VERY ROUGH ESTIMATES)
  2. Walking (wait) 0.18
  3. Walking (pause buffer) 0.15
  4. Walking (pause buffer + turn frame) 0.16
  5. Biking (wait) 0.16
  6. Biking (pause buffer) 0.13
  7. Biking (pause buffer + turn frame) 0.14
  8. Biking (second tile) 0.12
  9. Douglas 0.53
  10.  
  11. Russell 0.328 0.82*0.82
  12. Anthony 0.150 0.85
  13. Benny 0.278 0.85*0.85
  14. Ivan 0.582 0.84*0.88*0.84*0.88*0.87*0.88
  15. Irwin 0.243 0.87*0.87
  16. Greg 0.130 0.87
  17. Dana 0.160 0.84
  18. Olivia 0.160 0.84
  19. Ernest (1) 0.165 0.82 or 0.85 (depends on value of exp.)
  20. Kaylee 0.140 0.86 (greater chance of getting stuck)
  21. Benjamin 0.150 0.85 (greater chance of getting stuck)
  22. Rocket 0.278 0.85*0.85
  23. Douglas 0.530 0.47
  24. Ernest (2) 0.150 0.85
  25. Joyce 0.245 0.8675*0.87
  26. Heidi 0.447 0.84*0.87*0.87*0.87
  27. Martha 0.150 0.85
  28. Doris 0.150 0.85
  29. Tom 0.364 0.84*0.87*0.87
  30.  
  31. -----
  32.  
  33. If spinnerless or only hit Russell through Bugsy:
  34.  
  35. COMBINATION LIKELIHOOD UNDERGROUND ADDS LV. 30?
  36. No spinners 0.159 No
  37. Ivan 0.230 No
  38. Irwin 0.053 No
  39. Greg 0.025 No
  40. Dana 0.031 No
  41. Olivia 0.031 No
  42. Ernest 0.035 Yes
  43. Ivan+Irwin 0.074 Yes
  44. Ivan+Greg 0.034 Yes
  45. Ivan+Dana 0.044 Yes
  46. Ivan+Olivia 0.044 Yes
  47. Ivan+Ernest 0.049 Yes
  48. Irwin+Greg 0.008 Yes
  49. Irwin+Dana 0.010 Yes
  50. Irwin+Olivia 0.010 Yes
  51. Irwin+Ernest 0.011 Yes
  52. Greg+Dana 0.005 Yes
  53. Greg+Olivia 0.005 No
  54. Greg+Ernest 0.005 Yes
  55. Dana+Olivia 0.006 Yes
  56. Dana+Ernest 0.006 No
  57. Olivia+Ernest 0.006 Yes
  58. Ivan+Irwin+Greg 0.011 Yes
  59. Ivan+Irwin+Dana 0.014 Yes
  60. Ivan+Irwin+Olivia 0.014 Yes
  61. Ivan+Irwin+Ernest 0.013 No
  62. Ivan+Greg+Dana 0.007 Yes
  63. Ivan+Greg+Olivia 0.007 Yes
  64. Ivan+Greg+Ernest 0.007 No
  65. Ivan+Dana+Olivia 0.008 Yes
  66. Ivan+Dana+Ernest 0.009 No
  67. Ivan+Olivia+Ernest 0.009 No
  68. Irwin+Greg+Dana 0.002 Yes
  69. Irwin+Greg+Olivia 0.001 Yes
  70. Irwin+Greg+Ernest 0.001 No
  71. Irwin+Dana+Olivia 0.002 Yes
  72. Irwin+Dana+Ernest 0.002 No
  73. Irwin+Olivia+Ernest 0.002 No
  74. Greg+Dana+Olivia 0.001 Yes
  75. Greg+Dana+Ernest 0.001 No
  76. Greg+Olivia+Ernest 0.001 No
  77. Dana+Olivia+Ernest 0.001 No
  78.  
  79. Chance of getting Lv. 30 from strat: 40.8%
  80. Time saved from getting Lv. 30 from early underground: ~17s (15 for candy + 2 for Poliwrath/Pryce split)
  81. Average time saved: 6.9 seconds
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