Show of hands who makes money from somehow inside the 3D industry. like a job at a studio. almost everyone.

So I love this job its really fun and that childlike wonder of bringing something from my head into real life is something I really enjoy.

But I want to continue doing this, its a fun job, but if you've paid any attention to the news you've no doubt seen the reports of automation and AI

[tech could automate 45% of tasks]
[early 2030: 38% of us jobs could be automated]

Doomsday theories that we will all be out of jobs sitting out on the street with nothing to do, I always thought "but that doesnt apply to 3D becuase what we're doing is art and computers can never replicate art". But then you see a couple of stories like how machine learning was used to create high fidelity animation details on the face of Thanos and I'm like "okay alright".

then you see an algorith thatll take styles from famous paintings and apply to to a photo and im really sitting up and paying attention and that i dint think a computer could do that so i wonder what are we looking at here it kind of made me wonder if this is the old days of the disney 2d animators being replaced with 3d animators are we foiing to be replaced with server racks running ai and machine learning to autofengerate the movies so that is what im going to disvuss in this presentation how ai and automation mght change the 3d industry. quiock sidenote im foign to be useing turns like ai and machine larning and some people are like "no tahts not ai you have to call it this" and for all intensive purposes at the end its all the same result its software doing so,thing and atist does.

there is one guy whos very good at preidcions for the future, the amazon guy jeff bezos. whos in hot water for his treatment of staff, wasntvery good at predicting that, but for the last 20 years he has been basically ahead of the insutry so he siad "i frequenly get ask whats going to thcnage in the next 10 years i almost never get asked whats not going to change in the next 10 years and thats acutally the more important of the two" and he went on the explain that an amazon customer of the future is never going ot say "i wish the prices were higher or i love amazon but i wish it took lonver" right so those 2 variables he nows gor sure will be desiderable in the gfutre so whats not gojng to change is what you should gocus on not worry about hypotheicals and applying ot 3d i whtik that any tech taht makes things faster better or chearper will eventually become standard its inneviatable things get rolled out once the studio execs raelise itll save them money.

so what is costumg money at the momen. games are costume money.

[Gamasutra Raph Koster "the cost of games"]

blotted games from 1985 to today and he gounf a disturbing trend that every 10 yeas the cost of games go up 10 times so this ist eh log scale it looks deving like its not taht big of an increase but everone of those horizontal lines represents a 10x incraese of the one before it so basically evbery year it goes up 25% by 2020 the average teiple a game might cost 200 million dollars so theyre allready more expensive than feature films its getting unweidly because they all have to spend more to uoutcompete the others and mobile gameing started out cheap bcauecase its ahpening how asits saturated so the costs are way to high and the need to come down a big portion of this costs is assets assets are unreasionably expensive so lets say for example your making a vieogame that involves a street youve got to have characters running down a street so youve got o moddel a building and its pretty detailed apartment so you work pretty hard might get it don in 12 hours then youve texture it often takes as long say you get it don in 10 then halfway thogh 22 hiurs which unreasionable passuming productuin 100% of the time usually 50% say youve got 100% priccitive then studo has revision of 2 to 4 times narrative changes maybe wanna make take place in paris isntaed new york maybe tunnel tunninr through nbuidling for whateve reason so changes hadve to happen repeatedly haveto revisit old changes at a cost of 60$ per hour avergae wage cost 3900 dollars

when you look at a game like the diviision price tags on everything and its very easuy to see why games are costuong hundreds millions dollars and this is kind of dumb right becuase were working virtaully none of thos stuff exists we should be able to approach it smarter because i think that a large poriton of this costs comes for, the fact that this is a static workflow 1:1 input to pitput you have to repeat the work and sure you mgiht be able to start from the base of the otehr  but you often havbe to do so many detail topology changes retrextuee it to is a pretty similar utput so i think that the fist leap thats going to happen to the 3d nsutrty is proedural workflows becomming mainstream or the standard to say, so approaching hr proem of modeling of a buolding to do procedsurally would look like this instaed of modelling itself youd set parameters would look like wiuthin ranges so this height and widge btween 5 - 10 windows 2 to 3 doors could have this many floor in range and thenbascially you let the sorwarw self generate and this is how you bring costs down so this course was taught by [Anastasia Opera Procedural Modelling: Houdini. lake village.]. but she made prodceural lake village using houdini and she went on to expalin that she thought taht prodecurallism would remove crative aspect but forced her to understand what makes something look good cause you dont know as an artist you do withouth thinking but had to put into program explicisty define that looks like so taht was good exervice also youg eot of the machine at other end were other ideas you handt thought of berore so could be advtantage. prodecurally modelling have to texture it.

texutring so i run polygon so when started polygon 2 uyears ago every texutre was capture with a camear and wed find a floor like that and we needed another floor find anothr wooden floor capture ir make it seamless process it 1:1 input output. then we discivered subtance deisgner whereboy youd spend a lot longer genreating a node set up making somehting 100% prceurall no camera was involveed whatsoever make it digitalle but once youve made it once it very easu to make veraitipona from that and so immefiate we realised benegit of this could capture this things difficult liek marble and wood (hpo ionto homes) cost saving thats aLL WE DO NOW alo to fmaterials are made with sd, exepct phootscalling besst for ground. double size of team gmae studios have realised job listings substance designer.


then ofcourse youve got to apply to a model that will have creases and creveses and occlusiot take into accoutn for algorithmic wasgood made sister software substance painter will take thing bake maps and apply smart maps to smart maks too add in grunge and stuff. so its the numbr one texture sogtware in the world right now for this very reason its saving sutiods hundredsof thousands dollars isprocedural when you go bac and change something if youve got the pipline right it should automnupdate with textures so very cool.

and then finally youve got leveldesigner putt assets into it had ttart new york cuty example say you avea gorest. far cry 5 they made a lot of them 5 in face but previous went about make about a forst normally particla sistems place things by hand problem is as story change over month ladnscape would change and roads go through dfirernt places and weach time had to update and handplace and remove all ttees this time they did it differnt way they craeted eacosystrm set rules to define where certain trees and plants would live big trees would gow center smallr to eadges underneath exosystems of smallerplants in shadows neat a lake different plants there it would automatically update according ot altitude so if jhighter up woiuld be smaller trees and they buold tools into that to make roads and buldings

[procedural world generation of Ubisoft Far Cry 5]

whole talk worth watching if yoiu gat a chance so this i think will be the futire this workflow procedural modelling materaisla nd texturing and worldbuolding

10:55
https://youtu.be/FlgLxSLsYWQ