Author's disclaimer about being tired and working around the clock with little sleep.

To be honest, the Pandora's box is open - by summer, the real nightmare will begin at world scale - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the principal suppliers of grain in the world, this year the harvest will be much less, but logistic problems will exacerbate the catastrophe to its pinnacle.

I am unable to tell you, what leadership upstairs was [doing/thinking] at the time of making decisions concerning the operation, but right now, we (the Service) get all the dogs sickened on us. They're reprimanding us about the analytics, which is exactly in my specialty, and I will tell you where the problem really is.

Recently, we were pressured more to deliver reports that were influenced by directions from leadership (I mentioned this before). All these political consultants, politicians and their friends, influence teams, all these things were creating chaos. Severe chaos.

Most importantly - nobody knew, that such a war will happen, this was concealed from everyone.

[Author gives long example that asks you to imagine you're an analyst, asked to provide detailed report about a hypothetical meteor strike of a prison, but that it's not important - a formality, just what will happen, how we will fix it etc. So analyst writes something out the ass, to check the box and avoid questions about why everything is so bad, but then the meteor actually strikes and everyone wonders why reality doesn't match the report].

And that's why now everything here is totally fucked - I don't even want to choose another word. We have no defense against sanctions for the same reason: Nabiullina [Former Minister of Economic Development of Russia] will likely be made to carry the responsibility for this (or more likely her goons), but what did they do wrong? Nobody knew, that this war will happen, that's why nobody prepared for sanctions. This is the flip side of secrecy: since you haven't told anyone, how could anyone calculate that, which nobody was told about?

Kadyrov [Puppet Head of the Chechen Republic] is losing his mind. He almost began a conflict with us: possible that even Ukrainians threw disinformation, that we [FSB] gave away the tracking routes of Kadyrov's specialops in first days of the operation. They got covered [under fire] during their march in a terrifying way, they didn't even begin fighting, but they were simply shredded in several places. And then they began [the accusations]: "it's FSB that leaked the routes to Ukrainians". I don't have this type of information, but confidence remains 1-2% (cannot be ruled out entirely either).

The blitzkrieg fell through. The complete the task now is simply impossible: if, in the first 1-3 days we had captured Zelensky and representatives of government, captured all key buildings in Kyiv, made them read the capitulation orders - yes, the resistance would have been reduced to minimal levels. This is theoretically. But what happens next? Even in this **ideal** case, there remains an unsolvable problem: who do you negotiate/make deals with? If we're taking out Zelensky - good, who will be signing the agreement? If Zelensky, then after his removal these signed papers become meaningless. OPFL [pro-Russia opposition part in Ukraine] have refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk - coward, escaped. They have another leader - Boyko, but he is refusing to work with us - even his own people can't understand him anymore. Wanted to return Tsarev, but even our people hate him, pro-russians have turned against us. Return Yanukovich? How? If we say that we can't occupy, then any of our installed leaders will be shot within 10 minutes of us leaving. To occupy? Where will we find enough people? Commandants, military police, counter intelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from locals we will need at least 500 thousand, and more people. Not counting supply systems. There is a rule, that when you replace poor 'quality' leadership and substitute in 'quantity', you essentially ruin everything. And this, I repeat, would happen if everything went ideally, which isn't the case. What now? We cannot declare mobilization for 2 reasons:

 1. Widescale mobilization with confirm the direness of the internal situation in the country: political, economic, social.
 2. Our logistics are overextended already as of today. If we send in much larger contingent, what will we get? Ukraine - a gigantic country by territory. And now the level of hatred for us is off the scale. Our roads simply cannot handle the throughput necessary for such supply caravans - everything will be clogged. And control-wise we won't pull through - because of chaos.

And these two reasons are triggering simultaneously, even though even one would be enough to break everything off. In terms of casualties: I don't know, how many. Nobody knows. First two days we had control, right now nobody knows what is going on. You can lose connection with large subdivisions. They can be found again, or they can dissolve as a result of coming under fire. Even commanders there may have no idea, how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many captured. The casualties are definitely in thousands. Maybe 10, maybe 5 or maybe just 2 thousand. Even headquarters don't know for sure. But it should be somewhere close to 10 thousand. And we're not even counting L/DNR corps, they have their counts.

Now, even if we kill Zelensky, or capture him - nothing will change now. There, they have Chechnya-level hate towards us. And now even those that were loyal to us, have come forward against us. All this - because it was planned at the top, because we were never told that this is a possibility - unless we're attacked. They explained at length, that we need to synthesize a maximum confirmed threat, in order to have a peaceful agreement on desired terms. Since we were already manufacturing protests in Ukraine against Zelensky, without any considerations for our direct entry (or invasion, if that's simpler).

From here on, civilian casualties will grow geometrically - and the resistance towards us will only increase. We already tried sending infantry to cities - out of 20 paratrooper groups, only 1 had conditional success. This is unsurprising, simply look back at the siege of Mosul, everyone knows this.

To siege? Among armed conflicts in Europe in the last 10 years (looking at Serbia - richest source of experience) the cities can sustain sieges for years, and even continue to function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe become only a matter of time.

We had a tentative deadline until June. Tentative, because in June we exhaust our economy, exhaust everything. Big picture, next week we will see a shift in favor of one of two sides, only because the situation cannot remain this tense for longer. There is no analytics anymore - you cannot compute chaos, most likely nobody here would be able to say much. Act intuitively, on top of that on emotions - this isn't poker for you. The stakes will get higher, in hopes that suddenly one of the options works. The trouble is that we too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.

Big picture, the country doesn't have an exit. Simply no options of possible victory, and defeat - that's it, it's the final stop for us.

[Author compares this mistake with the beginning of last century's conflict with Japan, in my words - where Nicholas II lost the war but remained in place to save face and hope for a miracle - it culminated with the 1905 Russian revolution].

Among the positives: we did everything we could to avoid any accusations or even hints of us sending masses of "shtraffniks" to the front line [shtraffniks - army servicemen in a punishment unit]. If you send convicts, and the "socially unreliable", and politicians (to avoid them stirring things internally) - the morale will go into the negative values. Yet our opponent is motivated, monstrously motivated. It knows how to battle, they have plenty of mid-rank commanders, they have weapons, they have support. We're simply setting a precedent for the number of human casualties across the world. And that's it.

What we are afraid of the most: upstairs, they act on the principle of eclipsing old problems with new ones. In large part, that's why we pumped up Donbas of 2014 - we had to divert attention away from the topic of Russian summer in Crimea, and that's why the Donbas crisis was supposed to draw all the attention and be the center of discussion. But there we developed even bigger problems. Then we decided to squeeze away 4 pipes of "South stream" out of Erdogan and entered Syria - that's after Suleiman give false information to solve his own problems. The outcome - we were unable to close the Crimea topic, Donbas is also causing problems, the "South stream" ended up shrinking to 2 pipes, and Syria has developed yet another problem (meaning, if we leave - they will crush Assad, which will make us look like idiots, or we sit - which takes effort but brings nothing).

I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". Had we received real inputs, we would have at least pointed out that the plan is controversial, and that many things must be rechecked. Many, many things. Now we've found ourselves in shit up to our necks. And it's unclear, what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" - these are not analytical categories, they don't have clear parameters, and cannot be measured to estimate the extent of success or failure.

Now all that remains is to wait, to see how some fucked up advisor will convince the upstairs to begin a conflict with Europe, demanding to lower sanctions. Either lower them, or war. What happens if they [Europe] say no? Now I'm not ruling out that we will find ourselves in an international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And later we'll have our own "Z" compared to a swastika.

Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purpose (it won't give us anything - it's a weapon against breach of defenses), but to scare others. We're also preparing the basis to blame it entirely on Ukraine - Naryshkin with his FIS [Russian Foreign Intelligence Service] is currently digging the soil, in order to use as proof that they have secret nuclear weapons. Shit, they keep hammering something that we already know for a long time - you can't just draw the proof on a napkin, and show possession of specialists, and uranium (Ukraine has planty of isotope 238) - it means nothing. Their manufacturing cycle is such that you cannot do it undetected. You can't even make a dirty bomb there undetected. And that their old nuclear power plants produce weapon grade plutonium (a small amount is extracted as reaction "byproduct") - well there the Americans have set up control systems with connectivity to IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that to try and suck anything out of this topic is silly.

Do you know, what will begin in a week? Well, let's even say two weeks? We're about to be screwed so badly that the hungry 90s will begin to sound nostalgic. While markets haven't closed, Nabiullina seemingly is taking the right steps - but that is like plugging a hole with your finger. One way or another it'll break through, and even harder. You can no longer solve this problem within 3 days, or 5 days, or 10 days.

Kadyrov is panicking for a reason too - they have their own adventures. He manufactured an image of himself as the most influential and most undefeated. And if he missteps once - his own will tear him out.

Moving along. Syria. "The guys will hold, everything will wrap up in Ukraine - and will reinforce our Syrian positions." Now, in any moment their contingent can expect to run out of resources - and the heat will turn up like never before... Turkey closes the straits - they have to supply by planes, might as well be heating a furnace by burning money.

Note that all this is happening simultaneously, we don't even have time to pull it all into one pile. Our position is analogous to Germany's in 43-44th. Right from the start. Sometimes I lose myself from exhaustion and it all feels like a dream.

In jails, by the way, things will get worse. Right now they'll begin tightening every nut and bolt and cut every corner **everywhere**. Truthfully, strictly technically, this poses the only chance to hold the situation together - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But we cannot remain in this mode for long, but our timelines are unclear and it's only going to get worse. Control always gets disrupted at time of mobilization. [Author compares the mistake of giving it everything you've got in the first 100 meters _of a marathon_].

And all of the above is just the very short description of everything.

Among the cynical topics, I will add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button, to destroy the whole world.

First, it's not a single person making this decision, someone along the chain will hop off the wagon. And the number of people in the chain is a lot.

Second, there are doubts, that everything there is functioning correctly. Experience shows, that the more transparent the control - then the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And when it's unclear who controls what and how but all the reports are stellar - there, everything is always amiss. I'm not convinced that the system of the red button works as expected. Besides, plutonium charges need to be replaced out every 10 years.

Third, this is the most disgusting and sad, personally I don't believe in the readiness of sacrificing myself for someone who wouldn't let their closest people anywhere near him - not the Federation Council, not his closest representatives and ministers. Be it due to fear of coronavirus or fear of attack - doesn't matter. If you're afraid to let your most loyal people near you, then how could you even decide to destroy everyone - including yourself and your closest people?

In summary, our reports look great, but everything is completely fucked.