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- Cool have a good day. I suspect interesting things are going to happen in the markets.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- if yes let me know in advance to rebalance my coins...
- Are you holding BTC?
- 55 mins
- Anon (user@email.com)
- still some
- should I sell?
- That's for you to decide
- Something I figured out you should be ware of though
- Anon (user@email.com)
- so what is the news?
- https://fork.lol/
- See the graph of difficulty adjustments between BCH and BTC?
- note that BTC difficulty adjustment is about once every two weeks (actually 2016 blocks)
- and the old BCH difficulty adjustment would oscillate wildly and pull hash rate away from BTC for a stretch and then have nothing when BTC would have it all
- Anon (user@email.com)
- bch less difficulty?
- right but that's not the point
- so there was a BCH hard for about three hours ago
- and what they did was change the difficulty adjustment algorithm so that it doesn't do that wild oscillation anymore
- it just focuses on keeping a 10 minute block time.
- that's all it cares about.
- ok so does everything described so far make sense?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- all L3 finally running...
- mey be even gonna trust it when I am not at home... will see after few days..
- cool
- this gets pretty complex so I want to make sure you understand the basic way the difficulty adjustment works before we go furhter
- Anon (user@email.com)
- yes it make sense... conclusion? (not seeing it yet)
- the things to gasp are 1) BTC retargets difficulty once every 2016 blocks (approximately two weeks) to maintain a 10 minute block time
- and 2) BCH retargets difficulty once every 10 minutes to maintain a 10 minute block time
- OK
- So
- What actually dictates how long each block takes to create is the amount of proof of work hashing each chain.
- And you now as someone very familiar with mining should understand well how this part works. What do we mine? The chain with the highest immediate profitability, right?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- yep
- OK
- So war game this scenario with me
- What happens if the price of BCH spikes right now by any signficant amount, or the price of BTC dips right now by any signficant amount?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- script on catching the difficulty changes? few minutes before everybody else swithc?
- in terms of the influence on the profitability of either chain?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- eveybody needs to switch quickly... so we can buy hash rate contract when it is cheap as you asid before...
- right?
- no no it's not about a business strategy for us
- think bigger.
- What are the actual effects on the block times when that happens?
- Imagine BTC price dips by 10%
- what happens to the 10 minute block time for BTC?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- hey... are you thinking about what I thought yesterday?
- I don't know what you were thinking about yesterday?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- i was thinking about creathing BALANCED COIN... coin which buys automatically BTCH +BCH... therefore users buy only BCB (Bitcoin Balanced) and make profit on steady rise of the market... not on stupid decisions which coin to switch to (and human mistakes)
- Nope
- this is nothing about our business strategy of anything of that nature
- think bigger, like entire industry scal
- just work with me here and we'll step throughi t
- Anon (user@email.com)
- ok... eenlighten me (btw do you think BCB would make sense?)
- BTC price dips by 10%, what happens to the 10 minute block time for Bitcoin?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- ok... waiting for eplanation
- gradually less hash power... right?
- Why gradually?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- until it balances,,,
- Remember how we work?
- We're miners
- we want immediate profitability
- Anon (user@email.com)
- ok.. immediate
- that's our rational self interest right
- So if BTC price drops by 10% then the miners just start hashing BCH instead
- but lets be charitable and assume it's a smooth decline which is the best case for BTC
- Anon (user@email.com)
- I mean that everybody sqitches gradually... as it takes some time... no? for everybody react around the world
- even *then* that means blocks come out at 10% slower
- so what was initially a blockchain speed of 1mb / 10 minutes
- is now 1mb / 10 minutes * 1.1
- 10 % decrease in transaction throughput
- Anon (user@email.com)
- eh...
- Get it?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- transactions gets stucked..
- Right
- And what does the market price do when that happens?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- yep, goes down...
- And what does the profitability do in response when the market price goes down ?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- so script to react on it before everybody else...
- No no no
- Anon (user@email.com)
- hahaha...
- assume that's all already perfect
- it doesn't matter.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- also gos down?
- Right.
- 10% drop in price = drop in miner hash rate
- drop in miner hashrate = drop in transaction throughput
- drop in transaction throughput = drop in price
- drop in price = drop in miner hash rate
- See the loop?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- so you predict at some moment the lop will be irreversible...
- when?
- like today?
- If I'm right
- Any time after now.
- any signficant BTC price dip would trigger it.
- hell even just a significant BCH price rise would trigger it.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- ok got it... probably moving btc out...
- but it depends on new money right?
- No..
- Anon (user@email.com)
- every day now new 2B usd...
- Because remember the first thing that we covered
- Anon (user@email.com)
- saved the loop from happening
- not?
- BCH has a difficulty adjustment algorithm that adjusts every ten minutes.
- Even if BTC keeps rising in price, that's ok for BCH
- because it re-adjusts every block
- But if BTC dips, or BCH rises...
- BTC dies.
- you see?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- I see...
- and BTC won't be able to react for at least two weeks
- Anon (user@email.com)
- what can stop that from happen?
- 2016 blocks
- *and worse*
- if blocks aren't ten minutes,, 2016 blocks aren't two weeks.
- so if the chain death spiral starts and blocks go to a year...
- It's just dead
- gone
- finished
- kaput.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- nice... so rather different question... how can we help make that happen?
- Let's answer the first question first.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- writting white paper and sending it to everybody around the world ☺
- What can stop that from happen
- Nothing short of a software upgrade of the bitcoin core software
- which the bitcoin core team has been terrible about doing with any kind of speed whatsoever reaction wise.
- so... that's... really bad
- it suggests the answer is maybe nothing can stop that from happening
- To answer the other question
- *We* don't make that happen.
- people moving the market make that happen
- I can't be the only guy on earth to have done the mathematics and figures out the above right?
- smart money has to be aware of it.
- So if you had hundreds of millions worth of BTC or BCH, and you knew spiking BCH or dipping BTC was throwing a lit match into jet fuel..
- what would you do?
- Anon (user@email.com)
- ]sure try to be first to move the assets (first silently and than faster...)
- You mean like what happened a day or so ago?
- You see where I'm going with this?
- The smart money already knows.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- yes... on sunday it was visible...
- Right
- but the difficulty adjustment wasn't live then
- so they couldn't go for the kill shot
- Now though? Throw that match and it's game over.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- I see...
- so what can we do to make it happen?
- Like I said
- we don't need to do a thing
- just wait for the match.
- (and don't be in the jet fuel)
- Anon (user@email.com)
- that nots fun... are we able to make a press release and write everything in a paper within few hours? i got translated it and lets send it to all bitcoin emails around the world.... lets be the match... this is the right PR... ☺
- *shrug* Up to you on that front, but you know I don't like publicity so please not my name or anything.
- And there's always thepossibility I'm wrong and I'm missing something here.
- It's not guaranteed that I'm right
- Anon (user@email.com)
- I can have **** to send the news to all CEOs in **** ☺ that would be the match... they wills tart doubt and thats it...
- I just think I am and wanted to share it with you.
- Ok... well if you wanted to play it like that then you would want to be out of BTC and in ETH BCH basically
- maybe even trade either of those assets on margin and simultaneously short BTC into the dirt
- if you want to be really aggressive about it.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- I can back it by my name and ****... the press release... you can stay hidden...
- Cool with me.
- Maybe just throw it at **** and see if he can find a flaw in it
- if he can't.. and you can't
- and I can't
- Anon (user@email.com)
- we still need some bitcoin specialist to back it...
- and we have an explanation for that billions in turnover from market yesterday
- it's probably right.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- like put omore names on our white paper...
- there's no bitcoin specialist I can think of who would want to touch that with a ten foot pole that probably doesn't already know
- I would bet that Roger Ver is on top of it.
- in fact I know he moved a ton of coins to exchanges recently.
- Anon (user@email.com)
- can we somehow ger proves about big bitcoin movements?
- to put that also to whitepaper?
- https://blockchain.info/tx/6ba0e3732c71b04a66a739a20f6a4bdbaa8588c6d34d0be0e1bdb2de0c46c376
- https://vote.bitcoin.com/addresses/16cou7Ht6WjTzuFyDBnht9hmvXytg6XdVT
- https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
- https://twitter.com/windsok/status/929626408753627136
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