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winniedemon

Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #6 (Way Too Early)

Dec 5th, 2021
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  1. The predictor estimates each person's final score, based on their past scores. This early on, it is very highly influenced by only one or two races (or forfeits). The best example of this is MrMario: with only 2 races completed, and one of them being a 1100, the predictor thinks he'll get a perfect 4400 score. It's WAY too early, and I expect things to change a lot as people complete more races, but here's the predicted top 64 after Qual #6:
  2.  
  3. 1. MrMario7788 - 4400
  4. 2. Fmz - 4232
  5. 3. Sponge - 4036
  6. 4. WTHH - 4008
  7. 5. Alexis - 4004
  8. 6. Stuck_man - 3996
  9. 7. Narcottic - 3992
  10. 7. JustSam - 3992
  11. 9. Vodzilla - 3984
  12. 10. Icola - 3980
  13. 11. Kevin_818 - 3940
  14. 12. SeYsEy - 3908
  15. 13. SlyRyD - 3856
  16. 14. rockchalk - 3848
  17. 15. Goomba - 3840
  18. 16. Marco - 3832
  19. 17. zorro275 - 3812
  20. 18. Martina - 3800
  21. 19. sanzeau - 3792
  22. 20. iceninetm - 3780
  23. 21. docheaps - 3764
  24. 21. YUSoEpic - 3764
  25. 23. SariasObject - 3748
  26. 23. ArthurOudini - 3748
  27. 25. gsk8 - 3744
  28. 26. Riley - 3736
  29. 27. Markars - 3732
  30. 28. wyrm - 3706
  31. 29. Jaybone25 - 3692
  32. 29. Braaks - 3692
  33. 31. Flouflouche - 3686
  34. 32. Aosuna - 3684
  35. 32. FantaTanked - 3684
  36. 34. WoodenBarrel - 3667
  37. 35. mrmartin - 3660
  38. 35. favio94 - 3660
  39. 37. Sora - 3656
  40. 38. Cokotier - 3644
  41. 39. PhilippeTitou - 3640
  42. 40. Tjongejonge_ - 3632
  43. 41. juwk - 3626
  44. 42. Aughoti - 3624
  45. 43. Xef199221 - 3621
  46. 44. Digdig - 3616
  47. 45. Xopar - 3592
  48. 45. CheckRaise - 3592
  49. 47. EarlWeird - 3588
  50. 48. Yoyocanari - 3580
  51. 49. BrotinderDose - 3572
  52. 49. drooness - 3572
  53. 49. Exodus - 3572
  54. 49. zelgadissan - 3572
  55. 53. PandaCerise - 3568
  56. 54. kariossa - 3542
  57. 55. Nopons - 3538
  58. 56. Cfalcon - 3516
  59. 57. DylanMeeble - 3512
  60. 57. GWL - 3512
  61. 59. Cola - 3506
  62. 60. emosoda - 3504
  63. 60. kr3z - 3504
  64. 62. Chimpanreeve - 3500
  65. 63. alfalfa - 3496
  66. 64. Matt - 3492
  67.  
  68. The predictor also identifies people who are likely to get into the top 64 based on their current score, with a few different degrees of certainty. Since there are only a few people with at least 5 races, there are only a few people that the predictor has identified. These lists will grow as more people finish their races.
  69.  
  70. Lock for top 64:
  71. none
  72.  
  73. Basically guaranteed:
  74. Icola
  75.  
  76. Very likely:
  77. Sora
  78.  
  79. Likely:
  80. WoodenBarrel
  81. juwk
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