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Jan 29th, 2018
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  1. The deal
  2. Pistons get: Forward Blake Griffin, forward Brice Johnson, center Willie Reed
  3.  
  4. Clippers get: Forward Tobias Harris, guard Avery Bradley, center Boban Marjanovic, Detroit's protected 2018 first-round pick and 2019 second-round pick
  5.  
  6.  
  7. Detroit Pistons: D+
  8.  
  9. Trading for Griffin is a fascinating, franchise-defining gamble by the Pistons.
  10.  
  11. Four years into Stan Van Gundy's tenure Detroit has only a single playoff appearance and zero postseason wins. Van Gundy, in his dual role as head coach and president of basketball operations, has consistently prioritized talent over financial flexibility, a strategy that helped him get Harris and fellow starter Reggie Jackson in buy-low trades. Yet the organization's largesse with free agents has put Detroit in precarious position vis-à-vis the salary cap and luxury tax.
  12.  
  13. Tax concerns helped cost the Pistons starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last summer; Detroit replaced him by flipping starting forward Marcus Morris to the Boston Celtics for Bradley, netting one starter for two. After a strong start, that depth issue -- as well as Bradley's own disappointing play -- has proved costly in Jackson's absence (ankle). An eight-game losing streak has dropped the Pistons four games below .500 and three games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Something had to be done.
  14.  
  15. EDITOR'S PICKS
  16.  
  17. NBA Power Rankings: Thunder continue to make noise out west
  18. Powered by an eight-game win streak, Oklahoma City is keeping up with the West's elite. Are Paul George, Russell Westbrook & Co. playing themselves into the league's top tier?
  19.  
  20.  
  21. NBA mock draft: New picks for Clippers, Bulls, 76ers
  22. Who's going No. 1, and how far has OU star Trae Young climbed? What prospect can the Cavs -- or a potential trade partner -- land with the Brooklyn pick? We project both rounds.
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  24. Rebuilding again this deep in Van Gundy's tenure wasn't realistic. Instead, Detroit has doubled down on talent, sacrificing depth and guaranteed dollars to acquire the best player the Pistons have had since trading Chauncey Billups nearly a decade ago.
  25.  
  26. Following Chris Paul's departure, Griffin has reinforced his ability to play a more versatile role as a shooter and playmaker. From the forward position he is averaging a career-high 6.9 assists per 100 team plays, nearly the norm for point guards (7.4), and he has made a career-best 64 3-pointers at a reasonable 34 percent clip.
  27.  
  28. With Griffin and Andre Drummond -- who can play off Griffin in a similar fashion to DeAndre Jordan in Los Angeles -- Detroit now has one of the league's best passing frontcourts. I suspect Van Gundy hopes that can help make up for the playmaking lost while Jackson is sidelined. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Griffin function as a point forward while Ish Smith is on the bench.
  29.  
  30. The first big question about this trade is whether the upgrade from Harris to Griffin at power forward can offset the loss of depth on the wing, one exacerbated by the fact that Harris could swing to small forward and Griffin cannot. On the plus side, Bradley has been dreadful this season, rating a league-worst 2.1 wins below replacement level by my metric.
  31.  
  32. However, WARP understates Bradley's value as an individual defender nearly as much as conventional wisdom overstates it. And the alternatives are not great.
  33.  
  34. Reggie Bullock is the one remaining Pistons wing who has been effective this season. Despite good moments recently, Stanley Johnson also has rated worse than replacement level this season; rookie Luke Kennard has provided little beyond 3-point shooting; and Langston Galloway is limited defensively against bigger guards. So I'm not sure how much adding Griffin will actually improve Detroit's chances of reaching the playoffs this year -- particularly given his own iffy track record when it comes to staying healthy.
  35.  
  36. Beyond this season, the questions for the Pistons multiply. Adding Griffin's $32 million salary pushes them within about $3 million of the projected 2018-19 luxury-tax line with 12 players under contract. They'll be hard-pressed to add anyone making more than the veteran's minimum to the roster.
  37.  
  38. Detroit's books won't get appreciably lighter until the summer of 2020, when Jackson's contract expires. Even then, they Pistons are still committing $61 million for Drummond and Griffin alone in 2020-21, when Griffin will turn 32. Griffin will then have a player option for the following season.
  39.  
  40. If Griffin slips from All-Star level as he reaches his 30s or injuries keep him off the court, this trade could turn ugly for the Pistons. Still, I understand why Detroit made this move. Players of Griffin's ability are rarely available on the trade market, and if nothing else, he provides a jolt of excitement to a franchise that has struggled to fill seats after moving into a new downtown arena this year.
  41.  
  42. In a few years, we could see the Griffin trade as either a jump-start to the Van Gundy era or the beginning of the end. I'd wager on the latter outcome.
  43.  
  44. LA Clippers: B+
  45.  
  46. Danny Leroux of The Athletic coined the term "Nenê test" to pose the question of whether a player re-signed as a free agent would have positive value in a trade (as Nenê himself did for the Denver Nuggets when he was dealt for JaVale McGee on McGee's rookie contract) or negative value.
  47.  
  48. Because of his star power, Griffin passed the Nenê test, even at his lofty, long-term salary. The Clippers were able to get back two starters on reasonable contracts plus a first-round pick in return. Though Bradley is the bigger name, Harris the real prize: a 25-year-old combo forward who has emerged as a quality starter and is making just $16 million this season and will make $14.8 million as his contract descends in 2018-19. (Brief aside: The Orlando Magic dealt Harris to the Pistons in 2016 for expiring contracts so they could clear cap space in the worst summer to spend it in NBA history. Oof.)
  49.  
  50. Even with Bradley likely to play better than he has in Detroit, I suspect the Clippers would be a slightly better team over the rest of this season if they simply kept the current roster together. Alas, it looks like the teardown will continue, with ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reporting that the Clippers are still looking to trade DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams for young players and draft picks.
  51.  
  52. It remains to be seen exactly what the Clippers' endgame is here. Trading Griffin gives them a more realistic path to creating max cap space next summer for a run at LeBron James or other top free agents. At the same time, Griffin was probably the Clippers' best recruiting tool. Trading a player who had spent his entire career in L.A. so soon after he re-signed also won't help the Clippers build trust with free agents.
  53.  
  54. Alternatively, the Clippers might just be looking for a soft landing toward a rebuilding process. Getting what could be a lottery pick if the Pistons continue to struggle (the pick is protected only if it lands in the top four) would go a long ways toward replenishing the Clippers' store of young talent, which could further improve if they're able to deal Jordan and Williams. (I would probably deal Bradley for draft picks too, though the Clippers might consider him more of a long-term piece at age 27.)
  55.  
  56. Because of Griffin's importance to the franchise, and because he's still such a good player, trading him was never going to be easy for the Clippers. In the long term, however, almost any team is probably better off not committing so much money to a player in the back half of his career. That goes double for a team such as the Clippers that can reasonably aspire to be players in free agency.
  57.  
  58. So from strictly a basketball standpoint, moving Griffin before his value started to fade was the right decision.
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