Bitcoin Production Cost

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © capriole_charles

//@version=4
study("Bitcoin Production Cost",overlay=true)

// INPUTS

p_old = input(0.05,"Ave. Electricity Cost $USD KWh (Pre June 2019)")
p_new = input(0.04,"Ave. Electricity Cost $USD KWh (Post June 2019")
elec_pct = input(0.60,"% electricity to Total Mining Costs")
plot_mp = input(true,"Plot BTC Miner Price (Close + Transaction Fee Revenue / BTC)")
plot_tc = input(true,"Plot Production & Electricity Cost Curves")
labels = input(false,"Plot Annual Profit Margin Labels?")

// DATA

fees = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/TRFUS","D",close)

elec_consumption() =>
    // Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) - Bitcoin's global electricity consumption in TwH.
    // NB: Uses MONTHLY averages of raw data from CBECI. TV script run-time is too slow with Daily/Weekly data here.
    //     This requires manual updating once a month for ongoing accuracy.

    d = dayofmonth
    m = month
    y = year

    e = float(na)
    e := d==1 and m==12 and y==2014? 1.85803466666667 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2015? 1.84261966666667 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2015? 1.910415 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2015? 2.07733266666667 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2015? 2.125437 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2015? 2.10028 :
         d==1 and m==6 and y==2015? 2.149371 :
         d==1 and m==7 and y==2015? 2.21597833333333 :
         d==1 and m==8 and y==2015? 2.335304 :
         d==1 and m==9 and y==2015? 2.32026033333333 :
         d==1 and m==10 and y==2015? 2.15466433333333 :
         d==1 and m==11 and y==2015? 2.29930733333333 :
         d==1 and m==12 and y==2015? 2.83890766666667 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2016? 3.76853166666667 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2016? 4.984321 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2016? 5.751456 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2016? 6.09711766666667 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2016? 6.65274233333333 :
         d==1 and m==6 and y==2016? 6.44479366666667 :
         d==1 and m==7 and y==2016? 5.618041 :
         d==1 and m==8 and y==2016? 4.439068 :
         d==1 and m==9 and y==2016? 4.43830366666667 :
         d==1 and m==10 and y==2016? 4.95330933333334 :
         d==1 and m==11 and y==2016? 5.12000766666667 :
         d==1 and m==12 and y==2016? 5.80765 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2017? 6.54180066666666 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2017? 7.62688133333333 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2017? 7.09545833333333 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2017? 6.71110866666667 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2017? 7.62911266666667 :
         d==1 and m==6 and y==2017? 11.720838 :
         d==1 and m==7 and y==2017? 13.17811 :
         d==1 and m==8 and y==2017? 12.0859133333333 :
         d==1 and m==9 and y==2017? 14.9976133333333 :
         d==1 and m==10 and y==2017? 17.342 :
         d==1 and m==11 and y==2017? 19.9178833333333 :
         d==1 and m==12 and y==2017? 22.4013633333333 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2018? 28.01982 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2018? 34.9384066666667 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2018? 34.81782 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2018? 36.8095066666667 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2018? 37.6163133333333 :
         d==1 and m==6 and y==2018? 41.5086133333333 :
         d==1 and m==7 and y==2018? 44.4878133333333 :
         d==1 and m==8 and y==2018? 49.8791433333333 :
         d==1 and m==9 and y==2018? 51.38618 :
         d==1 and m==10 and y==2018? 51.4356766666667 :
         d==1 and m==11 and y==2018? 47.8622633333333 :
         d==1 and m==12 and y==2018? 36.0539266666667 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2019? 36.1260666666667 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2019? 36.2145133333333 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2019? 36.9071833333333 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2019? 39.3832533333333 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2019? 41.2841866666667 :
         d==1 and m==6 and y==2019? 47.9736866666667 :
         d==1 and m==7 and y==2019? 56.3321133333333 :
         d==1 and m==8 and y==2019? 61.70129 :
         d==1 and m==9 and y==2019? 67.4179133333333 :
         d==1 and m==10 and y==2019? 77.0788966666667 :
         d==1 and m==11 and y==2019? 73.8160033333333 :
         d==1 and m==12 and y==2019? 72.26226 :
         d==1 and m==1 and y==2020? 71.86089 :
         d==1 and m==2 and y==2020? 78.92965667 :
         d==1 and m==3 and y==2020? 82.84 :
         d==1 and m==4 and y==2020? 65.96 :
         d==1 and m==5 and y==2020? 77.71 :na
    e

btc_mined_per_day() =>
    blocks_per_day = 144
    block_reward = time < timestamp(2012,11,28,0,0) ? 50 :
         time < timestamp(2016,7,9,0,0) ? 25 :
         time < timestamp(2020,5,14,0,0) ? 12.5 : 6.25 // 2020 estimated
    btc_per_day = blocks_per_day*block_reward
    btc_per_day

// CALCULATIONS

miner_price = close + fees/btc_mined_per_day()

elec = float(na)
elec := na(elec_consumption()) ? elec[1] : elec_consumption()

p = time < timestamp(2019,6,30,0,0) ? p_old : p_new

btc_elec_cost = float(na)
btc_elec_cost := (elec/365.25)*pow(10,9) / btc_mined_per_day() * p //convert: --> days --> KwH --> Per BTC --> * Price/KwH

total_cost = btc_elec_cost/elec_pct

margin = ((miner_price/total_cost)-1.0)*100.0
profit_margin = round(sma(margin,365))
m = ''
m := profit_margin > 0 ? "+" : ''

// PLOT

a = plot(plot_tc ? btc_elec_cost : na,color=color.red,linewidth=2,title=" Electricity")
tc = plot(plot_tc ? total_cost : na,color=color.purple,linewidth=1,title=" Total")
fill(a,tc,color=color.red,transp=70)

mp = plot(plot_mp ? miner_price : na,color=color.green,linewidth=2,title=" BTC Miner Price")
clr = miner_price < total_cost ? color.red : na
fill(mp,tc,color=clr,transp=20)



// LABELS

if labels and (barstate.islast or (dayofmonth ==1 and month ==1) and profit_margin)
    label.new(bar_index, btc_elec_cost, style=label.style_labelup,
         text="Margin (p.a.)\n" + m + tostring(profit_margin) +"%",
         textcolor=color.white,color=color.green)