Thurler

XD Metronome CD perfect fight scenarios and odds

May 27th, 2021
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  1. 354 moves, minus:
  2. - metronome
  3. 353 possible moves total
  4.  
  5. P1 = p(Someone uses Memento) = 1/353
  6. P2 = p(Memento targets Cleffa) = 1/2
  7. P3 = p(Togepi wins speedtie) = 1/2
  8. P4 = p(Togepi ohkos Geodude | No modifiers) = 26.997645263671875 / 353
  9. P5 = p(Togepi ohkos Geodude | -2 atk/spatk) = 16.869306700399993133032694458962 / 353
  10.  
  11. p(Win) = P1 * ( {P3 * [(P2 * P4) + (!P2 * P5)]} + (!P3 * P1) )
  12.  
  13. p(Win) = 0.00283286118980169971671388101983*((0.5*((0.03824029074174486543909348441926)+(0.02389420212521245486265254172658)))+0.00141643059490084985835694050992)
  14.  
  15. p(Win) = 0.000092021747955749320139461624880566 (or) 1 in 10867
  16.  
  17. Togepi ohko Geodude (regardless of modifiers): 12.3102490234375
  18. - dragon rage (+1)
  19. - sonicboom (+1)
  20. - water spout (+1)
  21. - surf (+1)
  22. - waterfall (+1)
  23. - hydro cannon (+0.9)
  24. - frenzy plant (+0.9)
  25. - muddy water (+0.85)
  26. - crabhammer (+0.85)
  27. - hydro pump (+0.8)
  28. - arm thrust crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.317474365234375)
  29. - guillotine (+0.3)
  30. - fissure (+0.3)
  31. - horn drill (+0.3)
  32. - sheer cold (+0.3)
  33. - bone rush crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.2539794921875)
  34. - triple kick hit x3 crit x1 or hit x2 crit x2 (+0.128638916015625)
  35. - cross chop crit (+0.1)
  36. - absorb crit (+0.0625)
  37. - bubble crit (+0.0625)
  38. - ice punch crit (+0.0625)
  39. - aurora beam crit (+0.0625)
  40. - powder snow crit (+0.0625)
  41. - superpower crit (+0.0625)
  42. - earthquake crit (+0.0625)
  43. - icy wind crit (+0.059375)
  44. - psycho boost crit (+0.05625)
  45. - psychic crit 14/16 (+0.0546875)
  46. - outrage crit 14/16 (+0.0546875)
  47. - meteor mash crit (+0.053125)
  48. - iron tail crit (+0.046875)
  49. - whirlpool crit (+0.04375)
  50. - dynamicpunch crit (+0.03125)
  51. - extrasensory crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
  52. - dragon claw crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
  53. - crunch crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
  54. - brick break crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
  55. - sky uppercut crit 6/16 (+0.02109375)
  56. - hi jump kick crit 6/16 (+0.02109375)
  57. - submission crit 6/16 (+0.01875)
  58. - magnitude 8+ crit (+0.0140625)
  59. - double kick crit x2 (+0.00390625)
  60.  
  61. Togepi +0 ohko Geodude: 14.687396240234375
  62. - petal dance (+1)
  63. - giga drain (+1)
  64. - needle arm (+1)
  65. - bubblebeam (+1)
  66. - water pulse (+1)
  67. - leaf blade (+1)
  68. - magical leaf (+1)
  69. - razor leaf (+1)
  70. - mega drain (+1)
  71. - water gun (+1)
  72. - bullet seed (+1)
  73. - ice beam 14/16 or crit (+0.8828125)
  74. - octazooka (+0.85)
  75. - blizzard (+0.7)
  76. - vine whip 6/16 or crit (+0.4140625)
  77. - clamp 6/16 or crit (+0.4140625)
  78. - icicle spear crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.317474365234375)
  79. - bonemerang single crit (+0.108984375)
  80.  
  81. Togepi -2 ohko Geodude changes: 4.5590576769624931330326944589615
  82. - bullet seed crit x1 or hit x3 range (+1) -> (+0.668373353779315948486328125)
  83. - petal dance 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  84. - bubblebeam 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  85. - water pulse 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  86. - leaf blade 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  87. - magical leaf 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  88. - needle arm 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  89. - giga drain 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
  90. - octazooka 6/16 or crit (+0.85) -> (+0.351953125)
  91. - razor leaf crit (+1) -> (+0.125)
  92. - bonemerang single crit range (+0.108984375) -> (+0.0904449462890625)
  93. - icicle spear crits or rolls (+0.317474365234375) -> (+0.06859875189411468454636633396149)
  94. - mega drain crit (+1) -> (+0.0625)
  95. - water gun crit (+1) -> (+0.0625)
  96. - ice beam crit (+0.8828125) -> (+0.0625)
  97. - vine whip crit (+0.4140625) -> (+0.0625)
  98. - clamp crit (+0.4140625) -> (+0.0625)
  99. - blizzard crit (+0.7) -> (+0.04375)
  100.  
  101. Bonemerang details:
  102. (6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8) - atk 0
  103. (5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk -2
  104. (13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16) - crit
  105. miss - 0.1 (no ko)
  106. hit, hit - 0.791015625 (no ko)
  107. hit, crit - 0.10546875 (always ko if 0, sometimes if -2)
  108. non crit rolls a 5 (15/16) -> crit needs 14 (13/16)
  109. non crit rolls a 6 (1/16) -> crit will always kill
  110. crit, crit - 0.003515625 (always ko)
  111.  
  112. 0 + 0 + 0.10546875 + 0.003515625 = 0.108984375
  113. 0 + 0 + (0.10546875 * (0.76171875 + 0.0625)) + 0.003515625 = 0.0904449462890625
  114.  
  115. Bullet Seed details:
  116. (6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8) - spatk -2
  117. (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - spatk 0
  118. (20, 20, 20, 21, 21, 21, 21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 23, 23, 23, 23, 24) - crit
  119. 2 hits - 0.375 (always ko at 0, needs crit at -2)
  120. no crits = 0.87890625
  121. at least 1 crit = 0.12109375
  122. 3 hits - 0.375 (always ko at 0, needs 1 non min roll at -2)
  123. no crits, all 3/16 rolls = 0.005431473255157470703125
  124. at least 1 non min roll or crit = 0.994568526744842529296875
  125. 4 hits - 0.125 (always ko)
  126. 5 hits - 0.125 (always ko)
  127.  
  128. (0.375 * 0.12109375) + (0.375 * 0.994568526744842529296875) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.668373353779315948486328125
  129.  
  130. Icicle Spear details:
  131. (5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - spatk 0
  132. (3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4) - spark -2
  133. (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
  134. 2 hits - 0.375 (needs both crits)
  135. both crits = 0.00390625
  136. 3 hits - 0.375 (needs 1 crit at 0, 2 crits at -2)
  137. no crits = 0.823974609375
  138. exactly 1 crit = 0.164794921875
  139. at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625
  140. at least 2 crits = 0.01123046875
  141. 4 hits - 0.125 (always ko at 0, 1 crit at -2)
  142. no crits = 0.7724761962890625
  143. at least 1 crit = 0.2275238037109375
  144. 5 hits - 0.125 (always ko at 0, 4 max rolls or 1 crit at -2)
  145. no crits = 0.72419643402099609375
  146. at least 4 max rolls = 0.000072479248046875
  147. no more than 3 max rolls = 0.999927520751953125
  148. no crits, no more than 3 max rolls = 0.72414394480802002362906932830811
  149. at least one crit or at least 4 max rolls = 0.27585605519197997637093067169189
  150.  
  151. (0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.176025390625) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.317474365234375
  152. (0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.01123046875) + (0.125 * 0.2275238037109375) + (0.125 * 0.27585605519197997637093067169189) = 0.06859875189411468454636633396149
  153.  
  154. Bone Rush details:
  155. (5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk 0 or -2
  156. (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
  157. miss - 0.2 (no ko)
  158. 2 hits - 0.3 (needs both crits)
  159. both crits = 0.00390625
  160. 3 hits - 0.3 (needs 1 crit)
  161. no crits = 0.823974609375
  162. at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625
  163. 4 hits - 0.1 (always ko)
  164. 5 hits - 0.1 (always ko)
  165.  
  166. 0 + (0.3 * 0.00390625) + (0.3 * 0.176025390625) + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.2539794921875
  167.  
  168. Arm Thrust details:
  169. same as Bone Rush but without miss chance
  170.  
  171. (0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.176025390625) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.317474365234375
  172.  
  173. Triple Kick details:
  174. (5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk 0 or -2
  175. (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
  176. miss - 0.1 (no ko)
  177. hit, miss - 0.09 (no ko even with crit)
  178. hit, hit, miss - 0.081 (needs both crits)
  179. both crits = 0.00390625
  180. hit, hit, hit - 0.729 (needs at least 1 crit)
  181. no crits = 0.823974609375
  182. at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625
  183.  
  184. 0 + 0 + (0.081 * 0.00390625) + (0.729 * 0.176025390625) = 0.128638916015625
  185.  
  186. Magnitude details:
  187. below 8 - 0.65 (no ko)
  188. mag 8 - 0.2 (crit 6/16)
  189. mag 9 - 0.1 (crit)
  190. mag 10 - 0.05 (crit)
  191.  
  192. 0 + (0.2 * 0.0625 * 0.375) + (0.1 * 0.0625) + (0.05 * 0.0625) = 0.0140625
  193.  
RAW Paste Data