XD Metronome CD perfect fight scenarios and odds

354 moves, minus:
- metronome
353 possible moves total

P1 = p(Someone uses Memento) = 1/353
P2 = p(Memento targets Cleffa) = 1/2
P3 = p(Togepi wins speedtie) = 1/2
P4 = p(Togepi ohkos Geodude | No modifiers) = 26.997645263671875 / 353
P5 = p(Togepi ohkos Geodude | -2 atk/spatk) = 16.869306700399993133032694458962 / 353

p(Win) = P1 * ( {P3 * [(P2 * P4) + (!P2 * P5)]} + (!P3 * P1) )

p(Win) = 0.00283286118980169971671388101983*((0.5*((0.03824029074174486543909348441926)+(0.02389420212521245486265254172658)))+0.00141643059490084985835694050992)

p(Win) = 0.000092021747955749320139461624880566 (or) 1 in 10867

Togepi ohko Geodude (regardless of modifiers): 12.3102490234375
- dragon rage (+1)
- sonicboom (+1)
- water spout (+1)
- surf (+1)
- waterfall (+1)
- hydro cannon (+0.9)
- frenzy plant (+0.9)
- muddy water (+0.85)
- crabhammer (+0.85)
- hydro pump (+0.8)
- arm thrust crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.317474365234375)
- guillotine (+0.3)
- fissure (+0.3)
- horn drill (+0.3)
- sheer cold (+0.3)
- bone rush crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.2539794921875)
- triple kick hit x3 crit x1 or hit x2 crit x2 (+0.128638916015625)
- cross chop crit (+0.1)
- absorb crit (+0.0625)
- bubble crit (+0.0625)
- ice punch crit (+0.0625)
- aurora beam crit (+0.0625)
- powder snow crit (+0.0625)
- superpower crit (+0.0625)
- earthquake crit (+0.0625)
- icy wind crit (+0.059375)
- psycho boost crit (+0.05625)
- psychic crit 14/16 (+0.0546875)
- outrage crit 14/16 (+0.0546875)
- meteor mash crit (+0.053125)
- iron tail crit (+0.046875)
- whirlpool crit (+0.04375)
- dynamicpunch crit (+0.03125)
- extrasensory crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
- dragon claw crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
- crunch crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
- brick break crit 6/16 (+0.0234375)
- sky uppercut crit 6/16 (+0.02109375)
- hi jump kick crit 6/16 (+0.02109375)
- submission crit 6/16 (+0.01875)
- magnitude 8+ crit (+0.0140625)
- double kick crit x2 (+0.00390625)

Togepi +0 ohko Geodude: 14.687396240234375
- petal dance (+1)
- giga drain (+1)
- needle arm (+1)
- bubblebeam (+1)
- water pulse (+1)
- leaf blade (+1)
- magical leaf (+1)
- razor leaf (+1)
- mega drain (+1)
- water gun (+1)
- bullet seed (+1)
- ice beam 14/16 or crit (+0.8828125)
- octazooka (+0.85)
- blizzard (+0.7)
- vine whip 6/16 or crit (+0.4140625)
- clamp 6/16 or crit (+0.4140625)
- icicle spear crit x2 or hit x3 crit x1 or hit x4 (+0.317474365234375)
- bonemerang single crit (+0.108984375)

Togepi -2 ohko Geodude changes: 4.5590576769624931330326944589615
- bullet seed crit x1 or hit x3 range (+1) -> (+0.668373353779315948486328125)
- petal dance 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- bubblebeam 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- water pulse 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- leaf blade 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- magical leaf 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- needle arm 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- giga drain 6/16 or crit (+1) -> (+0.4140625)
- octazooka 6/16 or crit (+0.85) -> (+0.351953125)
- razor leaf crit (+1) -> (+0.125)
- bonemerang single crit range (+0.108984375) -> (+0.0904449462890625)
- icicle spear crits or rolls (+0.317474365234375) -> (+0.06859875189411468454636633396149)
- mega drain crit (+1) -> (+0.0625)
- water gun crit (+1) -> (+0.0625)
- ice beam crit (+0.8828125) -> (+0.0625)
- vine whip crit (+0.4140625) -> (+0.0625)
- clamp crit (+0.4140625) -> (+0.0625)
- blizzard crit (+0.7) -> (+0.04375)

Bonemerang details:
(6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8) - atk 0
(5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk -2
(13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16) - crit
miss       - 0.1         (no ko)
hit, hit   - 0.791015625 (no ko)
hit, crit  - 0.10546875  (always ko if 0, sometimes if -2)
  non crit rolls a 5 (15/16) -> crit needs 14 (13/16)
  non crit rolls a 6 (1/16) -> crit will always kill
crit, crit - 0.003515625 (always ko)

0 + 0 + 0.10546875 + 0.003515625 = 0.108984375
0 + 0 + (0.10546875 * (0.76171875 + 0.0625)) + 0.003515625 = 0.0904449462890625

Bullet Seed details:
(6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8) - spatk -2
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - spatk 0
(20, 20, 20, 21, 21, 21, 21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 23, 23, 23, 23, 24) - crit
2 hits - 0.375 (always ko at 0, needs crit at -2)
  no crits = 0.87890625
  at least 1 crit = 0.12109375
3 hits - 0.375 (always ko at 0, needs 1 non min roll at -2)
  no crits, all 3/16 rolls = 0.005431473255157470703125
  at least 1 non min roll or crit = 0.994568526744842529296875
4 hits - 0.125 (always ko)
5 hits - 0.125 (always ko)

(0.375 * 0.12109375) + (0.375 * 0.994568526744842529296875) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.668373353779315948486328125

Icicle Spear details:
(5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - spatk 0
(3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4) - spark -2
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
2 hits - 0.375 (needs both crits)
  both crits = 0.00390625
3 hits - 0.375 (needs 1 crit at 0, 2 crits at -2)
  no crits = 0.823974609375
  exactly 1 crit = 0.164794921875
  at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625
  at least 2 crits = 0.01123046875
4 hits - 0.125 (always ko at 0, 1 crit at -2)
  no crits = 0.7724761962890625
  at least 1 crit = 0.2275238037109375
5 hits - 0.125 (always ko at 0, 4 max rolls or 1 crit at -2)
  no crits = 0.72419643402099609375
  at least 4 max rolls = 0.000072479248046875
  no more than 3 max rolls = 0.999927520751953125
  no crits, no more than 3 max rolls = 0.72414394480802002362906932830811
  at least one crit or at least 4 max rolls = 0.27585605519197997637093067169189

(0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.176025390625) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.317474365234375
(0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.01123046875) + (0.125 * 0.2275238037109375) + (0.125 * 0.27585605519197997637093067169189) = 0.06859875189411468454636633396149

Bone Rush details:
(5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk 0 or -2
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
miss   - 0.2 (no ko)
2 hits - 0.3 (needs both crits)
  both crits = 0.00390625
3 hits - 0.3 (needs 1 crit)
  no crits = 0.823974609375
  at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625
4 hits - 0.1 (always ko)
5 hits - 0.1 (always ko)

0 + (0.3 * 0.00390625) + (0.3 * 0.176025390625) + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.2539794921875

Arm Thrust details:
same as Bone Rush but without miss chance

(0.375 * 0.00390625) + (0.375 * 0.176025390625) + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.317474365234375

Triple Kick details:
(5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6) - atk 0 or -2
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12) - crit
miss           - 0.1   (no ko)
hit, miss      - 0.09  (no ko even with crit)
hit, hit, miss - 0.081 (needs both crits)
  both crits = 0.00390625
hit, hit, hit  - 0.729 (needs at least 1 crit)
  no crits = 0.823974609375
  at least 1 crit = 0.176025390625

0 + 0 + (0.081 * 0.00390625) + (0.729 * 0.176025390625) = 0.128638916015625

Magnitude details:
below 8 - 0.65 (no ko)
mag 8   - 0.2 (crit 6/16)
mag 9   - 0.1 (crit)
mag 10  - 0.05 (crit)

0 + (0.2 * 0.0625 * 0.375) + (0.1 * 0.0625) + (0.05 * 0.0625) = 0.0140625