Heal pad skip analysis

Full red bar saves ~5.7 seconds
Partial red bar loses time

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CHANNELER 1 (L23 Haunter)
- Rock Slide is 85% to OHKO
- Lick does 3 (5-7 crit)
- If you miss Rock Slide or miss the range, you're 55-60% likely to die
- Total added risk: 15%

CHANNELER 2 (L24 Gastly)
- If you miss Rock Slide, you're 55-60% likely to die
- Total added risk: 6%

CHANNELER 2 (L24 Gastly)
- If you miss Rock Slide, you're 55-60% likely to die
- Total added risk: 6%

ROCKET 1 (L25 Zubat, L25 Zubat, L25 Golbat)
- IB/TB is 91% to OHKO Golbat
- If you miss the Golbat range, you're 30-45% likely to die
- Total added risk: 4%

ROCKET 2 (L26 Koffing, L26 Drowzee)
- Smog does 1 (1 crit); Tackle does 5 (9-11 crit)

ROCKET 3 (L23 Zubat, L23 Rattata, L23 Raticate, L23 Zubat)
- Thrash is 94% to OHKO Raticate
- Rattata QA does 5-7 (11-13 crit)
- Raticate QA does 8-10 (12-15 crit)
- Added risk greatly depends on HP

Strats:
- If you're teaching Horn Drill after the Gastlies, you might consider healing on that menu if you took Lick/confusion damage
- If you have 6-8 HP after Rocket 2, you might consider using a Rare Candy to heal out of Quick Attack range. You get one worse red bar level-up during the Koga split, but you can still candy to L41 before Hypno, and you gain the following useful levels:
	> 35 for Raticate (94-->100% OHKO)
	- 36 for Gyarados (less damage from Hydro Pump)
	- 38 for Nidorino
	- 40 for Hypno

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Level		Next level		Highest red bar
31			+3				21
32			+3				22
33			+4				22
34			N/A				23

HP at L32		Odds of getting full red bar		Added chance of dying
0-7				100%								50%+
8-16			100%								31-49%
17				84%									~30%
18+				<50%								~28%

Analysis: Heal pad skip seems to be a poor play, falling significantly below common thresholds for risk/reward. (For reference, my standard in a vacuum is to take the risk if the added chance of dying is <2.3x the time save. Here, it's more than 5x.) However, some outcomes that cause heal pad skip to fail, such as confusion on the Gastlies, often kill runs through sheer time loss. If your run can't afford these time losses and you're already planning to YOLO Lorelei and Agatha, heal pad skip is probably a good play at 8-17 HP.