5/10/24-5/14/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

5/10/24-5/14/24 Update, day 807-810 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Due to power shortages across UA (following an increase in use likely tied to colder weather), restrictions on industrial customers are instituted from 5pm-midnight

UA arrested a man who was actively preparing and spotting for missile attacks in Rivne.

A UA SU-24M crashed/was shot down in W Ukraine near Zhytomyr.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

The UA missile interception rate has decreased considerably due to a lack of ammunition for air defenses and increased usage of RU ballistic missiles, dropping to 46% interception over the last 6 months vs 73% for the 6 months prior. Shahed interceptions remain essentially constant at 82%.

Due to expectations in power use increases during warmer months, it is expected that rolling power cuts will be instituted later in the summer.

The US National Security Director for EU affairs arrived in Kyiv.

The EU approved duty-free and quota-free trade for another year with UA.

The SBU allegedly prevented 4 GRU sponsored terror attacks due to occur in Kyiv on May 9th, which would have set fires in a market and detonated a car bomb.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

RU is currently attempting to occupy the NE border town of Vovchansk following a cross border raid earlier this week, and subsequent to a year+ campaign of bombings and indirect fire. The goal for said Kharkiv operation is likely to pull UA forces away from other fronts rather then actually seize and hold territory. Approximately 5 battalions of RU troops are involved in this action.

RU forces have managed to push into N Vovchansk, advancing some 6 km from the border over the last few days. Running street battles are ongoing, as RU attempts to encircle the N of the town in the suburban residential zone, using over 20 glide bombs in a day on the small town.

RU forces additional surged across the border NE of Kharkiv, pushing into the town of Lukyantsi. Its important to realize that the majority of the first ~5km or so on the UA side of the border is a grey zone and lightly populated, rather then an extensive network of towns.

RU launched 13 assaults as of this afternoon, and some 8 airstrikes. RU lost approximately 97 troops and 8 pieces of equipment, as UA reserves are rotated to the front to reinforce positions.

Some 5900 people were evacuated from NE Kharkiv today. Some 200 people are currently living in Vovchansk. Snipers targeted police working to evacuate civilians, but luckily the donated truck had armored windows which stopped the incoming rounds.

RU forces reportedly forced two local residents in occupied N Vovchansk region to stay in their basement and provide medical care to RU soldiers.

UA soldiers are laying the blame on both insufficient defenses at the border region, as well as inadequately trained/equipped/low morale territorial defense troops who abandoned positions. The head of Kharkiv military command has been replaced by a commander from the 72nd Brigade, who was partially responsible for the liberation of Kherson.

RU use of glide bombs on villages has already caused extensive casualties, although the infantry-heavy RU assaults on this vector appear to be likewise costly.

An apartment building in Belgorod was hit by a missile, apparently coming from the direction of inside RU. RU claims this was a maneuvering Tochka ballistic missile, which is unlikely compared to the UA allegations of a misfired RU air defense missile (which have been seen landing in Belgorod before). Some 10 floors collapse, ki

UA cyber ops have been ongoing to disable ISP's for local and regional military institutions in Belgorod.

UA is planning to open recruiting centers which allow for volunteers to better select their role within existing units rather then waiting to be mobilized. A bilateral veteran amputee and public UA activist received a conscription notice, which is highlighting the plight of lazy mobilization offices.


Kupyansk/Lyman:

UA repelled some 9 attacks over the past day in this direction.


RU launched 15 attacks out of Kreminna and towards the forests.



Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU launched some 16 assaults W of Bakhmut, and 10 to the NE near Siversk.

Approximately 25,000 RU troops are fighting near Chasiv Yar, with a range of troops extending from eastern RU ethnic units to specialized and trained forces. It is anticipated that RU will increase its troop presence here from the "mobilization reserves". There is reportedly a recent increase in lesser trained troops utilized here, and no major changes have been observed along the front towards Chasiv Yar despite heavy RU airstrikes.

RU has contested additional territory to the SW of Ivanivske along the highway.

Over the last day, RU shelled Donetsk some 1998 times.


Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:

RU continues to focus on this area, launching some 30 assaults to the W of Avdiivka. The front lines do not appear to have materially changed in the last 96 hours, as RU continues efforts to push NW of the city via Arkangheleske have not progressed.

RU forces have advanced W of Semenivka and Berdychi, pushing across the fields to the natural terrain feature of a river SW of Soloviove.

RU troops have advanced further S of Pervomaiske as they seek to expand the frontlines, also pushing a minor distance along the main highway itself.

UA shot down a KA-52 helicopter.


Donetsk city/Occupied regions:

RU launched 20 assaults to the NW and SW of Marinka, including further contesting central Krasnohorivka and broadly assaulting from the industrial southern portion into the residential N.

UA shot down an SU-25 in the Donetsk region.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU launched 9 assaults towards Staromaiorske and Robotyne. RU launched 399 attacks on 9 settlements, 178x with drones and 209x with artillery.

Extraordinarily heavy RU airstrikes towards Staromaiorske have allowed RU forces to contest additional territory along the main highway.

It is anticipated that RU will complete the Donetsk railway line by the beginning of June, which will link Rostov, Mariupol, and Volnovakha while shortening the line of logistics by some 300km

UA is investigating the death of a recently conscripted man who died of a seizure, and reportedly had bruises on his body.


Kherson:

RU launched 3 assaults on the UA bridgehead at Krynky.

RU troops raised a flag on a small contested island SW of Kherson in the delta leading to the black sea, as raids on the small marshy islands continue to change hands.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

There are no RU ships in the Black sea for the last several days.

RU claims to have intercepted missiles over Crimea today, and temporarily closed down the Kerch bridge.

UA naval drones have reportedly caused over $500 million USD of damage to the RU Black sea fleet

Atesh partisans located a large oil depot and military base in Crimea and noted it was sparsely occupied with manpower and equipment.


Russia:

UA launched drones on a number of oil Depots in RU, and an electrical substation.

Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu as Russian Defense Minister with Andriy Belousov, moving Shoigu to the position of Secretary of the Security Council in place of Mykola Patrushev. Belusov is an advocate for increased government control in the RU economy, likely assigned to his role due to RU desires to better mobilize the economy and resolve corruption issues.

RU gas company Gazprom reportedly had its largest annual loss in 25 years even before this years drone strikes, with a 30% profit loss and an annual net loss of some $7 billion USD. Gazprom paid some $28 billion USD to the RU federal budget in 2023, or 9% of the total government income.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 12 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 114 air strikes (including drones), and 84 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

1740 x soldiers (Total 484,040 day avg 1247, new 1-day max]
42x APC
31x Tank
0x Air defense
19x Artillery (4xMLRS)
59x vehicles
26x UAV

estimated cost: $108.8 million USD

total estimated cost- $84.8 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.5 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:

The government of Estonia is "seriously" discussing the possibility of sending troops to western UA so that the Estonian military can take over the "rear" work per an Estonian presidential advisor, who clarified it is part of ongoing discussions and a possibility not to be ruled out.

The US approved the emergency sale of three HIMARS MLRS to UA for approximately $30 million.

UA mail service Nova Poshta opened a branch in the UK, allowing for potentially faster shipping into Ukraine. Their offices in London allow for regular packages up to 30kg and cargo shipments up to 1000kg, and expect up to 5 days for package delivery from UA to the UK.

The geomagnetic storm displayed stunning aurora across some areas of NE Ukraine.