twg msf sus

sorry for causing a bit of a stir. full explanation below:

I have, and have had, no intention of lynching raeko today. this was a reaction test. I told my plan to THC in advance at the beginning of d2, along with my post-d1 suslist:

[spoiler=PMs to THC]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710091534]
I'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately

by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up

curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.

I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)

I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.

some more thoughts:

- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.

- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)

- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.

- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.

- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...

if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.

in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.

in short, my wolf pairs tier list:

highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs

pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby

plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs

not very plausible:
everything else

in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.

I'm sus of Specs.

I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.
[/quote]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710091950]
looks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...
[/quote]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710092884]
I don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.

other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.

I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.
[/quote]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710097759]
posted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.
[/quote]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710098014]
if I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.
[/quote]
[/spoiler]

mainly, because Specs wanted to vote raeko yesterday and seemed reluctant to townread me post-lynch (although in hindsight I may have overexaggerated the latter in my head), and Nakah sussed both raeko and me yesterday, I expected that one or both of them would try to push for a me/raeko vote today.

here's my real reasoning. most of it is the same as I stated in my fake votepost, but there are a few key differences that are noted (and some updates since I PM'ed THC my suslist):

[b]THC:[/b] I trust THC strongly, for the same reasons as before. I won't consider him in any of the wolf pairings below

[b]TZP:[/b] as I stated before, TZP's suicide play basically rules him out as a wolf except for the possibility of TZP/Specs as wolves (wolf!TZP wouldn't have forced the kitb unless his partner was Specs or Toby, and Toby was one of the people who voted TZP).

[b]BDS:[/b] BDS/Toby or BDS/Specs seem implausible because BDS could've pushed me/raeko. BDS/Nakah seems implausible because Nakah started the BDS lynch train and got him lynched (although maybe it was a distancing attempt and he didn't actually expect it'd take off? but that seems extremely risky if he couldn't be around phase end). this leaves BDS/raeko, which I think is most likely the only world where either BDS or raeko is a wolf

[b]raeko:[/b] raeko/Specs seems implausible because Specs voted raeko and left at a time when she was a big contender to be voted, less than 2 hours from phase end. raeko/Toby seems quite unlikely because d2, Toby stated he was leaning toward a raeko lynch after I voted, which seems pretty likely to snowball into a wagon. now, raeko/Nakah is possible, but highly unlikely, I think, because (a) raeko wanted to lynch THC early in d1, (b) raeko left a vote on Nakah and dipped for the rest of the phase (which seems highly risky if you can't be around phase end), and (c) Nakah's sus list set him up to push me/raeko after lynching BDS and it would look really strange if he didn't. this just leaves raeko/BDS.

[b]Nakah, Specs, Toby:[/b] the remaining pairs are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah. [u]I mentioned in my votepost that I didn't think Nakah was a wolf with anyone other than raeko because he would've just pushed the me/raeko wagon instead, but I think this logic is wrong and I wanted to see if anyone would call me out on it.[/u] at the time the votes were basically uniformly split, and raeko only had one vote (TZP) which was a pressure vote. in other words, the wagon didn't really exist yet, and for a Nakah paired with Specs or Toby, pushing sus onto BDS (while saying they thought BDS and raeko were the wolves, to set up for a d2 me/raeko lynch - even though you already wolfchecked both of us d1 but not TZP??) would be a way to get a "harder" lynch off on a potentially UTR wolf (BDS), which would look townier than getting an easy lynch on a more obvious target who's been sussed for short posts and inactivity.

Nakah has set himself up in a position where it'd be very natural for him to push me/raeko today. now, this is very circumstantial, and I don't wolfread Nakah for this alone; from my pov raeko/BDS is also a possibility, and human!Nakah would be consistent with this behavior in this case.

however, I currently wolfread Specs. I got worried about him pushing both me/raeko out today to secure a win based on his comment, which is what prompted me to do the reaction test:
[quote author=SpecsFlyer17 link=msg=441430 date=1710089380]
MSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.
[/quote]
and while I think this an okay comment and I may have gotten a little too paranoid about it (given that he also questioned Nakah and THC in said post), ultimately his response to my vote is what made me wolfread him:
[quote author=SpecsFlyer17 link=msg=441435 date=1710104570]
Similar to TZP voting himself out, MSF deliberately taking himself down strikes me as human-play, assuming he sticks with it.

Of course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don’t think this is the case, however.

If it’s genuine, its a gamble on raeko being a wolf. MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.
[/quote]
specifically — it's extremely avoidant on making any sort of stance or claim about my vote. he spends almost all of it talking about how it reflects on my own sus (which I think is less the important issue, given that I've been highly townread by everyone other than Specs, Nakah, and to some extent raeko), and virtually none of it addressing what I said about raeko. all he says is, "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." from my perspective - what about yours? given that you voted raeko yesterday, I'm surprised that you have nothing else to say - not about whether you agree/disagree with any of what I said, not about whether or not you are still sus of raeko or not.

this strikes me as an extremely cautious middle ground — not wanting to disincentive me from going through with it, but not wanting to agree too strongly and seem wolfy. I think town!Specs, who [i]sussed and voted raeko yesterday right before phase end[/i], would be significantly more interested in the question of whether raeko's a wolf, not me. because of this, you're currently my main wolfread.

(meanwhile Toby, first thing, just says "I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today." with a reason attached. this could be a play be wolf!Toby with partner wolf!Nakah to secure the win, but it reads to me as substantially less cautious and more of a human's stream of consciousness.)

(I also think Specs and Nakah as wolf partners makes sense to me — namely that both of them have expressed sus on raeko and have been a little more focused than everyone else on me as a potential wolf, and I think that Nakah voting BDS and Specs voting raeko makes sense as a distancing play at a time when it didn't seem like either THC/Nakah or Specs/Toby was particularly at risk. but this is only one of the worlds for why I want to lynch them)

---

I haven't particularly wolfread raeko before today, and I do read her reaction so far as relatively town. I think the lylo slip THC pointed out is definitely a bad look, and it did give me pause as to whether the wolves were simply raeko/BDS. but I do think it'd be a really novice mistake to make? the fact that she hasn't been paying attention (which generally seems true) and wasn't aware we were in lylo seems at least as believable to me as it being a wolfslip. I think she'd have to not be paying attention to make that slip regardless of alignment.

I do read her reaction as human too, based on how desperate it seems:
[quote author=raeko link=msg=441442 date=1710115403]
Not IF not me. NOT me. First of all I'm not a wolf. Second of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well. so yeah not going to do that
[/quote]

I'm sending this off to THC before I see what she continues to post tonight, but if she does indeed defend herself, I think she's likely town. I don't think that a not-very-active wolf!raeko with a dead wolf!BDS partner would be as desperate not to die (and she also has expressed some willingness to self-sacrifice d3).

ultimately, reads are fallible - but in the end, the possible pairs in my mind are: raeko/BDS, Toby/Nakah, Specs/Nakah, and Specs/TZP. even disregarding reads, probabilistically (given uniform distribution over wolf pairs) my preferred voting order is Specs/Toby > THC/Nakah > me/raeko, in a 3 : 2 : 1 ratio. to a first-order approximation, this means I would have to think that wolf!raeko is three times more likely than either wolf!Specs or wolf!Toby... which, no, I don't.

(by the way, the "raeko's buddying made me uncomfortable" line was pulled out my ass.)

between my fake votepost and the time I'm writing this, nobody has come to raeko's defense. could be a raeko/BDS world, but if nobody calls this out, I'd be much more scared of a world where wolves are pushing a bad vote to win.

---

btw, I actually redacted some parts of my PMs with THC to execute the reaction test. see the full PMs here (redacted parts in bold):

[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710035076]
I think I might actually off myself

if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:

TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs

voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. [b]maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.[/b]

[b]if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.[/b]
[/quote]
[quote author=mastersuperfan link=action=profile;u=3561 date=1710035327]
[b]the downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.[/b]

it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. [b]if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think BDS will be on board. I don't know if Nakah will be on board.[/b]
[/quote]
(I didn't realize I sent the same thing about shooting town in the foot to THC twice oops lol)

(by the way, I also PM'ed my tentative plans to kill myself and raeko last-second to BDS, who didn't respond)

afterward, though, TZP pulled his suicide play, which removed all possibility in my mind of raeko/TZP wolves - hence not wanting to lynch raeko anymore.