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FBI UCR/Census Data

Aug 12th, 2017
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  1. This Pastebin provides data and sources to three related images.
  2. A: https://i.imgur.com/V5fAy1r.png (2015 data)
  3. B: https://i.imgur.com/SK71tm7.png (1980-2015 data)
  4. C: Lynching data
  5.  
  6. A: 2015 data
  7. Blacks committed 51.1% of all murders despite being only 13.16% of the population of the US in April, 2015 {[Census data shows](http://archive.is/LU397) that in April 1, 2010 blacks were 12.6% of the population, in July 1, 2016 they were 13.3% of the population, assuming a linear increase, this is a .00919842312% increase in population for every one of the 76.1 thirty-day periods in the 2283 day period from these two Census dates (4-1-10 & 6-1-16), an increase of 0.55987594666% over the 60.87 thirty-day periods in the 1826 days between April 1, 2010 and April 1, 2015. By comparison, White alone, percent, July 1, 2016: 76.9%; White alone, percent, April 1, 2010(a): 72.4%; this 4.5% would be 79.982% complete (1826/2283 = .79982) by April 1, 2015, or a 3.6% increase by that point, for a white proportion of 76% by April 1, 2015. And for the total population July 1, 2016: 323,127,513 April 1, 2010: 308,758,105, this increase of 14,369,408 would be 80% complete by April 1, 2015, or an increase of 11,495,526 from April 1, 2010 to April 1, 2015, for a total of 320,253,631 Americans at that time, with blacks being 42,145,377 of that total, and whites being 243,392,760. (4,347/42,145,377)*100,000=black murder rate per 100,000
  8. (3,908/243,392,760)*100,000=white murder rate per 100,000 [There are multiple lines of data that strongly suggest that blacks are not unfairly targeted by police in arrests in general](https://pastebin.com/AWEwBCFF)}
  9.  
  10. B: Overlap with C for 1980-2015 data
  11. Black Americans had [a murder rate of 34.4/100,000 from 1980 to 2008](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf), the Bureau of Justice Statistics claims that over this same period, whites had a murder rate of 4.5 per 100,000, although Mexicans (Mesoamericans with European admixture) are erroneously lumped in as "white" under US racial classifications, and "Hispanic" speaking Americans could be white or mestizo (or a mixture: castizo). {[Total United States population in 1980](https://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/1980/1980censusofpopu8011u_bw.pdf) (Table 38): 226,545,805 White: 188,371,622 Black: 26,495,025 Proportion: 83.15% White, 11.70% Black. Again referring to [Census Data](https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216) in 2010, 72.4% (of 308,758,105) or 223,540,868 individuals were White, 12.6% were black or 38,903,521 individuals. This is an average of 205,956,245 white individuals from 1980 to 2008, an average of 32,699,273 black individuals. With murder rates of 4.0/100,00 and 34.4/100,000 annually (for whites and blacks, respectively), projecting those rates/100,000 (annually) over 28 years, based on average population, we can set up a basic algebra equation [(x murders committed/32,699,273)=(34.4/100,000)] and solve for "x" to determine that the average size black population from 1980-2010 committed 11,249 murders every year (again, based off of the murder rate averaged from the period from 1980-2008). This "average number of murders committed by the average population from 1980-2008" for whites (lumped in with Mexicans) from 1980 to 2008 is (x/205,956,245)=(4/100,000) meaning 8,238 murders committed by the average size white population during the 1980-2008 period. Running this average/year figure (by race), the result is that over this 28-year period, whites committed roughly (8,238)(28) 230,664 murders, blacks committed 314,972 murders. As stated, the figure for whites would likely be more than twice as low if mestizos were not lumped in as "white", the "white" murder rate in majority-white states which do not have many "Hispanics" (i.e. mestizos), such as Vermont, is far lower than any majority "white" state in the Southwestern US with a large population of mestizos. These total murders committed were based off of calculations when blacks were on average 12.15% of the population and whites were 77.8% population, if blacks had a population as large as whites over this period, projecting off of existing data, we would expect them to have committed (77.8/12.15 = 6.403) 6.4 times as many murders, or 2,015,821 murders. Tangentially related: other UCR Links [1](https://ucr.fbi.gov/ucr-publications) [2](https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015)}
  12.  
  13. C: Lynching data
  14. {Politifact, which has no ideological bias inclining them to minimize the number of lynchings recorded, stood by the Tuskegee institute estimate of [3,446 blacks lynched between 1882 and 1968](http://archive.is/vG8v4), though they were splitting hairs about the specifics of this figure with regards to a claim by Allen West; these lynchings were not limited to those committed by the KKK. The NAACP [also stands by these figures](http://archive.is/HrneX) and notes that 1,297 white people were lynched as well; to my amusement, the NAACP article has some major grammatical errors (low verbal IQ?) "...the lynching of either murders or cattle thiefโ€™s..." I think they meant murderers and cattle thieves, but I wouldn't expect Tyrone to know that. Regardless, projecting off of the murder rate from 1980-2008, blacks murdered (in the average year) almost three times as many people (11,249) as blacks were lynched over the aforementioned 86-year period (3,446).}
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