Pokemon Red Mt. Moon strats

UPDATE (10/25/14): I don't use strats 4 and 5 anymore. They might be useful in certain situations, but they seem to have more disadvantages than advantages.

Several people have asked me about my strats for Mt. Moon -- when to skip Water Gun, fight the Hiker, etc. -- so I figured I'd make a paste on it.

First of all, I never use the old strat of getting Water Gun and then fighting two Mt. Moon encounters to get Thrash before Mankey on Nugget Bridge. This strat is slower on average than skipping Water Gun, but it still involves some risk, because Nidoking will only be Lv. 24 for Staryu and Lv. 29 for the Oddish in Rock Tunnel. It's usually best to skip Water Gun with a good attack DV, and being underleveled for Staryu and Oddish is quite dangerous with a bad attack DV. So bad attack DVs almost always mean fighting the optional Hiker in Mt. Moon.

Here's a list of the strats I use and the effects they have. Explanations are below the list.

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1) Skip Water Gun, then get 177 experience from encounters in Mt. Moon (138 with a Lv. 4 Nidoran). This gives me Lv. 18 for Cerulean Rival's Pidgeotto, Lv. 23/Thrash before Mankey on Nugget Bridge, Lv. 25 for Staryu and Lv. 30 for Oddish.
2) Skip Water Gun, and skip experience from encounters in Mt. Moon. This gives me Lv. 17 for Pidgeotto, Lv. 20 for Mankey, Lv. 24 for Staryu and Lv. 29 for Oddish.
3) Get Water Gun, then fight the optional Hiker in Mt. Moon. This gives me Lv. 18 for Cerulean Rival's Pidgeotto, Lv. 20 for the first Pidgey/Nidoran-F fight, Lv. 23/Thrash before the second Pidgey/Nidoran-F fight, Lv. 25 for Staryu and Lv. 30 for Oddish. I also get to fight the faster, safer Hiker on Route 25.
4) Get Water Gun, then fight the optional Hiker in Mt. Moon, then fight one Lv. 9-10 Geodude or one Lv. 12 Paras. With a Lv. 4 Nidoran, this gives me Lv. 20 after Cerulean Rival, so I use my Rare Candies to reach Lv. 22 for the first four Nugget Bridge trainers. I get Lv. 23/Thrash before the second Nidoran-F. I'm still Lv. 25 for Staryu and Lv. 30 for Oddish, and I fight the faster, safer Hiker on Route 25.
5) With a Lv. 4 Nidoran, get Water Gun, then skip fighting the first Super Nerd and Lass in Mt. Moon, then fight the Rocket as Nidoran. Then use a Rare Candy, teach Water Gun and evolve to Nidoking before the second Super Nerd. I fight any encounters after evolving that Nidoking can 1-shot, up to two encounters. If I killed two encounters, I use the Cerulean Rare Candy after Cerulean Rival to reach Lv. 20. If not, I use the Rare Candy before the final fight on Route 25 to reach Lv. 23. This strat makes Nidoking underleveled until Koga, but the only fights where this has a significant impact are the Mt. Moon Rocket and Misty. I also fight the faster, safer Hiker on Route 25.
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By far the most important factor in deciding your Mt. Moon strat is your attack DV. Nidorans with 14-15 attack DV have a significant advantage from Mt. Moon to Rock Tunnel, because 14 DV is more likely to hit some crucial damage ranges. Here are the main three, which occur during fights that can easily end a run:

Cerulean Rival's Pidgeotto: If Nido is Lv. 17, ~90% chance to 3-shot with 14 DV attack, ~55% chance to 3-shot with 13 DV.
Hiker above Nugget Bridge: 100% chance to 1-shot Machop with 14 DV, 96% chance to 1-shot with 13 DV. Also, Nido does 10-12 damage to Geodude after a Defense Curl with 14 DV, 9-11 with 13 DV.
Rock Tunnel Oddish: If Nido is Lv. 29, 55% chance to 1-shot with 14 DV, 47% with 13 DV.

Because the above damage ranges are favorable for 14-15 DV Nidos, you can usually get away with skipping encounter experience in Mt. Moon. This actually helps later in the run, because it produces better red bar level-ups, and with HP DVs of 0-3 and 5-7, it preserves red bar during Lorelei if you take no damage from Koga until the Elite Four.

However, you should avoid skipping experience with 14-15 DV if:
1) You caught a Lv. 4 Nidoran. This allows you to get early Thrash (and Lv. 18 for Pidgeotto) by killing two Lv. 9 Zubats, or a Lv. 8 and Lv. 10 Zubat, or a Paras and just about anything.
2) You caught a Lv. 3 Nidoran, you catch a Paras early in Mt. Moon, and you encounter another Paras that is Lv. 10 or Lv. 12. Killing a Lv. 10 Paras and a Lv. 10 Zubat gives you early Thrash. Evolve to Nidoking after killing the Paras, because Nidorino can't reliably kill Zubats higher than Lv. 9.

If your DV is 13, you can still skip experience, and you'll save time if all goes well, but Pidgeotto, Geodude and Oddish are bigger threats. If your DV is 11-12, Staryu has a small chance to live, the Koffing in Mt. Moon isn't likely to die in two hits, and the Lv. 14 Rattata on Nugget Bridge isn't likely to die in one. If your DV is 10 or less, skipping experience is asking for trouble.

If you caught a Lv. 4 Nidoran and your DV is 10, you should still try to kill two Zubats/Parases. If your DV is 9 or less, the Zubats you'd want to kill are tougher damage ranges, so it's usually best to fight the Hiker and a Lv. 9-10 Geodude or Lv. 12 Paras. Level 3 Nidorans with 0-10 DV attack should just fight the Hiker and avoid encounter experience (unless you crit a Paras when trying to catch it; then you'll have enough experience to make another kill worth it).

Skipping the first Super Nerd and Lass in Mt. Moon isn't advisable unless 1) Nido has 14-15 DV attack and 8-10 DV speed, and 2) it's necessary to correct a bad time. You're more than 50 percent likely to die with this strat, even if you play conservatively, but if it works, it should save at least 20 seconds, and possibly a minute. The major threat is Misty, because you'll be Lv. 24 for Starmie and thus unlikely to 2-shot it with Thrash. This strat also requires you to carefully manage Horn Attack PP on Nugget Bridge, and you'll need to do Silph Co. before the Safari Zone to gain enough levels to successfully Repel high-level Pokemon in the Safari Zone.

Besides Nidoran's attack DV and its level when caught, here are a few other factors I weigh when deciding my Mt. Moon strat.

1) Do I have a good time? If so, I'm more likely to fight the Mt. Moon Hiker, because it's safer.
2) Will I be faster than Starmie? If so, I'm more likely to skip Water Gun and the Hiker, because I won't have to use as many Potions to heal off the extra damage I'll likely take on Nugget Bridge and Route 25.
3) Did I catch a Spearow or a Pidgey? If Pidgey, I'm more likely to skip Water Gun and the Hiker, because I need to keep Tackle for catching Paras or Oddish in certain situations.
4) Will I have at least one Poke Ball, the Antidote and TM34 in Vermilion City? If so, I'll be able to pick up the Elixer above the Machop/Geodude guy on Route 25, sell TM34 in Vermilion, and have enough money to buy more Super Potions or X items. Thus, I'll be more likely to skip Water Gun and the Hiker and fight the Machop/Geodude guy.
5) Do I have good HP, defense and special? If so, I'll take less damage on Nugget Bridge and against Misty. Thus, I'll be more likely to skip Water Gun and the Hiker.