11/21/22 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

11/21/22 Update, day 271 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

Belarus continues to send large quantities of ammo and supplies to Russia via train. Reportedly the trains arrive empty, load up, and depart for russia.

There are allegations by the UA GUR that Russia is planning for false flag attacks on Belarusian infrastucture to bring them into the war. There is no evidence of Belarusian assault groups being formed, which is a neccesary condition before such an assault could take place.


Kyiv/ Central Ukraine

Ukraine observed the Day of Dignity and Freedom, a anniversary of 2004 Orange revolution and the 2014 Maidan movement.

It is forecast to be broadly around freezing in Kyiv city over the next week, as colder weather comes in. Snow is not currently expected in quantity.

There were several unscheduled blackouts today across Ukraine, as UA energy companies continue to struggle with the 50% damage to electrical infrastructure. It has been reccomended that those abroad stay abroad if possible, to reduce the load on the system. The Vinnitsya, Kyiv, Sumay, Cherkasy, Ternopil, and Odesa regions are most affected.

Per the CEO of a UA energy supplier, it is likely that regular power outages will continue until march of 2023. If RU attacks continue, then the situation will become more difficult. There is also statements that hospitals must prepare for operations in the event of a complete blackout, despite having absolute priority for energy.

The UA oil pipeline company Ukrtransnafta has stated it will increase the transit fees on the transportation of RU crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline, the largest oil pipeline in the world, which flows through Belarus and Ukraine from Russia to Europe. The tarrifs would increase for Slovakia and Hungary from 2.1 to 13.6 Euros per ton of Oil.

RU has fired more than 4,700 missiles during 270 days of war, per zelensky.

In Lviv, an online map has been created showing shelters and generators available for the public. This is partially designed to aid online workers, who may not have power in their home or work office.

UA confirmed they have 2 NASAMS systems and 1 IRIS-T system which have been 100% effective in intercepting RU missiles, but their limited quanity poses difficulties. There are more systems on order.

The UA air force has stated that due to certain diplomatic factors, the transfer of IRGC ballistic missiles may have slowed down, but if they do arrive, they will likely be used against UA energy infrastructure.

The SBU seized some 140k rounds of ammo from a war profiteer company.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv

RU shelled several villages and a gas pipeline along the Sumy border.

N of Kharkiv, we have seen reduced RU shelling and no observed assault attempts.


Kupyansk/Svatove/Kreminna:

RU forces are increasingly using S-300 missiles in this area, striking into the UA backlines against Shevchenkove, which lies along the main UA route to Kupyansk.

Heavy fighting continues along the highway to Svatove from the NW, near Kuzemivka. Should UA manage to dislodge RU defenders in this area, there are very few defenses along the highway towards Svatove proper.

UA is also attacking towards Kolomyichykha, which is due south of Kuzemivka and a bit further from the highway. Should UA manage to take this area, it will also allow for greater access along the highway towards Svatove.

Per the UK intel services, RU forces are hampered by a shortage of ammo and qualified personnel, and RU is trying to ensure Svatove does not fall for political reasons (similar to Lyman, Izyum, and Kherson). This means that RU forces may overcommit past the point of safety if assaulted/threatened.

Futher south, there is evidence of continued UA pushes towards Ploschanka, a town between Svatove and Kreminna on the highway, from which RU has been launching attacks eastwards towards UA positions along the Zherebets river. Given RU artillery landing immediately outside of town, it appears that any ground assaults from here are likely suspended as UA forces push up.

The winter weather is affecting fighting here, with snowy conditions leading to severe malaise among RU troops and logistics efforts by UA troops to get additional cold weather gear ASAP.


Siversk/Lysychansk:

There is no notable change from this direction, with artillery fire ongoing along the front to the NE,E, and SE of Siversk's frontlines.


Bakhmut:

There has continuyed to be heavy shelling around Bakhmut city and Soledar.

RU artillery has increasingly ranged towards the Soledar-Bakhmut highway, as well as the W approach into bakhmut, with intent to apparently cut off supplies here.

UA artillery has increasingly pulled back to the Soledar-Bakhmut highway itself, indicating a likely RU advance here to both sever the soledar-Bakhmut main highway, as well as potentially supply another avenue for assault into Bakhmut. The terrain here is broadly all fields until you reach the northern suburb of Pidhorodne. Until and unless that town is taken by RU troops, they are unlikely to have a definite foothold in this area.

RU shelling has increasingly targeted the W approach into Bakhmut city, likely to impede supply lines. We are also seeing increased RU artillery striking W from the highway which leads into Bakhmut from the south, as another attempt to partially circumvent the city. There has been no observed significant movement from RU forces to the south of bakhmut in several days, as artillery positions remain fairly constant.

In lighter news, US retired Marine Colonel Andrew Milburn, who has been assisting in training UA troops since April in Ukraine, has founded a "Mozart" PMC which is now being deployed to Bakhmut to contest the RU Wagner group.


Avdiivka:

RU forces have been thus far unable to demonstrably change the situation on the ground following capturing Pisky, and their attempts to sweep around to the W of Avdiivka currently remain stalled.

However, there is increased appearance of RU troops here which may indicate a thrust further W towards Pervomaiske, for a very long attempt to circumvent Avdiivka. This seems to echo the RU assaults from Izyum towards Slovyansk, where as the direct route got stalled RU would increasingly attempt larger flanking actions, which ultimately split their forces and stalled out as well.



Donestk/Occupied E:

There continue to be mobilization effotts taken by RU forces across the occupied territories, and UA deep strikes target supply lines and RU bases deep into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

RU continues to swap out DPR/LPR proxy officials for Russian de facto officials.

RU is reportedly looting Ukrainian mines for equipment, to send bck to Russia.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis/ Mariupol :

RU and UA shelling continues across the front line, with considerable focus around the Pavlivka/Vuhledar area.

In this area, it appears that RU gains have been somewhat reversed by UA artillery, as both artillery and drones have been used, but UA posseses a higher ground advantage across the river.

The winter weather is starting to have a substantial impact on the tempo of frontline operations, although shelling is relatively unabated.

At the ZNPP, following explosions there yesterday, there is assessed to be no threat to radioactive materials, fuel, or reactors. While RU is not currently seen to be withdrawing from the plant, the UA engineers still operate large portions, albiet under considerable duress and intimidation.

4 of the reactors are in cold shutdown, with 2 in a hot shutdown mode to provide steam and hot water for the plant and Enerhodar city. IAEA representatives continue to push for a protection/exclusion zone around the plant, with no apparent RU buy-in, as they have increasingly limited the IAEA's access. The attempts for RU to connect the ZNPP to the Crimean power grid have apparently been abandoned due to damage along electrical infrastructure in the south.

There are some 500 RU soldiers stationed at the ZNPP, including armored vehicles stored inside the plant itself, as a "shield" against UA attacks.

RU terror tactics continue in Melitopol, with one woman forced to stand for 9 days in a shipping container among other abuses.

In Mariupol, a new wave of raids are being planned to supress dissent of remaining citizens. This comes after RU promises to provide heating and infrastructure were not met, and people complained via a petition on telegram. These people are now being investigated by the RU occupation authorities here.


Kherson Oblast:

There continues to be duelling RU and UA strikes across the Dnipro, as UA works to get energy infrastructure up and running broadly in Kherson oblast. The UA government has called for the evacuation of vulnerable people from Kherson.

RU shelling has predominantly focused on Kherson city, Chornobaika, and the area immediately across from Nova Kahkovka. UA shelling has focused on Nova Kahkovka, suspected RU positions E across from Mylove, as well as deep strikes on RU positions with long range rocketry as far south as Chaplynka.

RU shelling in Kherson has caused several casualities. The first electric connections are anticipated to finalize in Kherson after a week, with another month before electricity and water can be fully supplied, assuming no more damage.

There is UA shelling of the Kinburn penninsula, and UA OPCOM south stated that "combat operations are ongoing there". The stated goal is to displace RU forces from here to allow for safe passage from Mykolaiv and Ochakiv ports of grain ships.

A number of torture centers have been found in Kherson oblast, as well as troves of sensitive RU documents abandoned in the disorganized retreat.

A video purporting to show a 75 year old RU POW, who claims to be a freshly recruited private, includes him offering himself back to Russia in exchange for a racoon reportedly stolen from the Kherson zoo during the retreat. The veracity of this is so far undetermined-it could be a joke.

Reportedly RU forces burned the bodies of their dead soldiers at a sequestered landfill in large quantities, to hide their losses back in Russia proper.

There is more evidence of massive RU looting of Kherson museums.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):

RU is attempting to strongarm citizens in Crimea into mobilization, via the use of military and police forces. This is predominantly focused on Crimean Tatars between the ages of 18-27.

There is currently stormy weather in the Black sea, and the RU grouping of ships there will be somewhat depleted


General:

Over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces eliminated:

390 x soldiers (Total 84,600)
6 x tanks
5 x APC
2 x Artillery (0x MLRS)
7 x vehicles
0 x UAV

Per the ISW, Russia's inability to effectively control the Telegram and other social media spaces has allowed milbloggers unprecedented access and freedom to discuss RU failures in this war, with a 60% increase in usage inside russia.

According to the WHO, 20% of Ukrainians have issue with access to medicine or medical services. The WHO also condemmed the destruction of electrical infrastructure in advance of winter.

Per CNN, Iran is beginning to transfer the materials and blueprints for its Shahed-136 drone to Russia so that RU can domestically produce them sometime next year. This likely points to increasing ties between the Iranian regime and moscow, rather then IR distancing themselves as some political figures had claimed.

The German Minister of Defense stated that they are willing to deploy Patriot missile batteries on the Polish border with Ukraine, although specifics regarding time, quantity, and equipment are not being shared.

Canada is issuing 370 million USD in government bods to support Ukraine, with a focus to support UA energy and heating infrastructure.

The EU along with the UN will be providing some 35 million euros for supporting development and reconstruction in Ukraine.

Lithuania will supply ammo to Ukraine, but currently has not approved air defenses or artillery, as their own stocks are very limited.

Per the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd austin, UA troops will have an advantge in the winter weather as compared to RU forces due to oreoaration

Norway will provide Ukraine with ~200 million USD for the purchase of gas this winter.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognized Russia as a terrorist state and called for the creation of a special international tribunal, unanimously. This resolution also calls to:
Increase the supply of weapons to UA, improve UA accession to NATO, and seeking reparations from RU.

In Manhattan, some UA activists placed a sculpture of an RU missile next to the Wall Street Bull as a way to draw reference to the mass killing of animals and natural resources in Ukraine by RU agression.