Cannes Predictions

North America (5)
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino
Radegund - Terrence Malick
Jim Jarmusch - The Dead Don't Die
Frankie - Ira Sachs
A24 (Waves - Shults, Midsommar - Ari Aster, or The Lighthouse - Robert Eggers)

While it's still possible Tarantino could be out of competition, and the film isn't quite done, it seems like he wants another Palme. James Gray was hoping to also make competition, but the film seems likely to be delayed again. Shults' Waves was rumored to have been submitted in a 3 hour cut, so we may be in for a repeat of last year's Under the Silver Lake - perhaps Fremaux will have the sense to put it in UCR. Benh Zeitlin's Wendy has been rumored since last year, but it sounds like producers would rather save it for awards season. The same is true for Justin Andrews' Against All Enemies, which Thierry Fremaux is purportedly a fan of. Kelly Reichardt's First Cow shot recently but could be ready. Netflix is fully out, so no Safdies, Scorsese, or Soderbergh. Josephine Decker and Miranda July have new films ready and it would be exciting to see either jump into competition, though sidebars may be more likely especially for Decker who has never shown a movie at Cannes. I'm a little surprised not to have heard anything about Sean Durkin's The Coup, starring Carrie Coon and Jude Law - his debut Martha Marcy May Marlene screened in Un Certain Regard after winning the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. Perhaps it's being held for the fall. From Canada we could see returns from Atom Egoyan or Xavier Dolan, though the former has a pretty abysmal track record of late and the latter would have to get over his butthurt about the press reaction to the Grand Prix winning It's Only the End of the World. Mainstream releases Rocketman and Toy Story 4 seem natural for OOC slots, perhaps even another blockbuster like Aladdin or Godzilla: King of Monsters. Sidebars often cull from Sundance premieres, so anything that hasn't shown internationally is fair game - perhaps Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner Clemency, Shia LaBeouf biopic Honey Boy, or Jocelyn DeBoer and Dawn Luebbe's debut Greener Grass?

France (4)
Portrait of a Girl on Fire - Celine Sciamma
Oh Mercy - Arnaud Desplechin
Sybil - Justine Triet
Une Fille Facile - Rebecca Zlotowski

The French slots tend to be particularly hard to predict, but there are almost always 4 of them, occasionally give or take 1. Some of the bigger names in contention are Bruno Dumont, who's made a sequel to Jeannette: The Childhood of Joan of Arc, Michel Hazanavicious, though his family oriented film may be more OOC friendly, and, apparently Roman Polanski (!?!?!?). Bertrand Bonello's Zombie Child and Mia Hansen-Love's English language debut Bergman Island would both be tantalizing but neither seem likely to be ready - the latter has yet to recast (or at least announce a replacement for) a role out of which both John Turturro and Owen Wilson have dropped, delaying part of production until this spring. Perhaps controversial director Abdellatif Kechiche could premiere the second part of Mektoub, after the first premiered in Venice in 2017, though competition seems particularly unlikely. Other somewhat familiar names bandied about include Alice Winocour, Robert Guedigian, Guillame Nicloux, Cedric Kahn, and oddball Quentin Dupeiux. But while this is true for films of any nationality, French films by directors you and I have never heard of are particularly likely to show up.

Europe (6)
Dolor y Gloria - Pedro Almodovar
Sorry We Missed You - Ken Loach
Ahmed - Jean-Luc and Pierre Dardenne
Beanpole - Kantemir Balagov
The Whistlers - Corneliu Porumboiu
The Traitor - Marco Bellocchio

While Porumboiu's countryman Cristi Puiu has been in competition before, he has multiple films in stages of production and it isn't entirely clear one will be done in time for Cannes. Alejandro Amenabar has had little success of late, but may return to competition with a stronger film. Cristian Petzold just premiered Transit last year, but may get his new film Undine in under the wire - if he does it could be a strong option for competition. Austrians Ulrich Seidl and Jessica Hausner both have new films, the latter starring Ben Whishaw. Pedro Costa's new film was tipped for a festival premiere last year, perhaps it finally shows up here, likely in a sidebar. Albert Serra's previous film The Death of Louis XIV premiered OOC in 2016, his follow up is likely to be another non-traditional biopic, this time of director Rainier Werner Fassbinder, titled Personaliens. While Paul Verhoeven's Benedetta would have seemed like one of the stronger bets at this time last year, his illness seems to have delayed it to 2020. Much like Malick, Roy Andersson's long awaited next film About Endlessness is reportedly waiting for Venice.

Asia(4)
The Truth - Hirokazu Kore-eda
Parasite - Bong Joon-Ho
It Must Be Heaven - Elia Suleiman
Wild Goose Lake - Diao Yi'nan

From Japan Kiyoshi Kurosawa and Koji Fukada, both of whom have recently appeared in UCR, have buzz. Filipino directors Brillante Mendoza and Lav Diaz both have new features, though the latter tends too austere for competition. Chinese directors Zhang Yimou and Lou Ye may have returned to form; the latter's film The Shadow just premiered last fall to some positive notices. Flora Lau of China and Anthony Chen of Singapore both presented their last films in sidebars of the festival and could return.

South America (2)
Nighthawk - Kleber Mendonca Filho and Juliano Dornelles
Ema - Pablo Larrain

Ciro Guerra is another candidate to premiere his English language debut; Waiting for the Barbarians has the flashy cast of Mark Rylance, Robert Pattinson, but Johnny Depp. Venerable Chilean documentarian Patricio Guzman also has a new film.

Australia (0)

David Michod and Justin Kurzel both have new films but the former is Netflix and the latter is not a good director.