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- Supplemental document for: "Theory that Roger Stone's back channel to Wikileaks was Randy Credico", link: https://wakelet.com/wake/2d352ae9-febe-44a1-a7bb-51674a2e4bf5
- Michael Flynn interviewed by Sophie Shevardnadze. Recording date: December 10, 2015. Full transcript.
- File link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RIUE68cpGc
- SOPHIE SHEVARDNADZE
- We're going to have a little interview with General...and then General will like to show a slide after, and then we'll have probably time to take a couple of questions from the audience. But, I'm going to jump right in, because I know you've seen the world inside out, you know how the military politics of America's allies works. So...still until this day, we're kinda mind boggled what happened, what's on everyone's minds is why did Turkey shoot down Russia's plane [Sukhoi Su-24 incident]? What's your take on that?
- MICHAEL FLYNN
- Yeah. And...first of all, thank you so much for inviting me and having me here. And, I'm gonna be really, really, a bit provocative here, today, for this- for this session, because this is really really important. This issue, and I'm gonna address your question with a very brief, couple of words. So, first of all, why did that happen? That happened because we have failed to understand the dynamics that are occurring in the Middle East, and the international relationships that we have had over many many years, have not- have not gotten to a point where we are strong enough as an international body to face this very very determined threat we are facing, and that tactical action, where the Russian aircraft was shot down, and tragically, lost the life of one of the pilots, and the other was heroically rescued, I think that we have to understand, there are going to be more of these instances, and I think the leaders of these nations, that are in this so-called international coalition, have to understand how we are going to have to deal with these types of incidents. Because we don't want these incidents, that are going to happen, we do not want them to be, um, to be the cause of something greater than we are already facing.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Okay, if we don't want these incidents to happen, maybe we should deconstruct this particular one a little more, and try to understand the real reasons behind it. Because, I mean, I just came back from America, and even the people who are super, uh, pro-establishment, they think it was like the silliest thing to do. What was behind Turkey's motives to shoot down Russia's plane- I mean, why would you wanna just spoil a perfectly nice, friendly relationship with your neighboring country and risk $16 billion dollars off contracts?
- FLYNN
- Yeah...um, I just think that...to focus on this issue, is uh- I think it's important, because the action caused a second, third, fourth order effect, that I don't think that the Turks clearly understood. So I think that the- I've said this, I believe that Turkey needs to do more against the threat of the movement of foreign fighters in and out across their borders, some of the black market oil that's going across their borders, and I also think that there has to be greater co-ordination by this international community, along these borders, these southern borders that do exist, that still exist, but are definitely challenged. I believe that, in order for a pilot to make that kind of a decision, that sort of a decision has to be at a higher level, and the rules of engagement, and I think this is where this lack of communication between international partners, the lack of communication, led to a misunderstanding of rules of engagement...on both sides. The rules of engagement clearly changed, in Turkey, and they clearly changed on the Syrian side of the border. So, those changes, brought this, uh, this confrontation to a head, and it caused a Russian aircraft to be shot down.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But you're saying the pilot couldn't take his decision on his own, it had to be okayed higher up, the question is, could Turkey take such a decision on its own? Do you think it had a green light from a bigger ally?
- FLYNN
- No. No. No I don't, no I don't. I don't believe that at all.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- So it was acting on its own?
- FLYNN
- Yeah, I believe Turkey is acting on its own, and I think there will be, there's gonna have to be far more, uh, conversation, discussion, agreements, about what it is we are facing here, because the situation in the Middle East, which is now, has become far more than just a regional problem, it is a geo-strategic global problem, we are going to have to come to grips with what I call, uh, 21st century rules. And 21st century tools. And we are still operating, we are still operating with 20th century...rules. We are still operating with 20th century...ideas. And we cannot do that anymore, we can't afford to do that, because the size, the scale of this threat, as we have seen in the last sixty days, if not in the last thirty years, has significantly grown. And we are going to have to face it...together. And that's why I'm sitting here today.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- You've said- You started the conversation by saying, "Unfortunately, unless we take care of this, we are going to see more and more incidents like that." So, when something like that happens, right, Turkey shoots down Russia's plane, what are we ought to do? I mean, does Turkey expect us to just to sit back and not retaliate? I mean, no one wants us escalation. But what are we ought to do? Are we not to react? What does Turkey expect?
- FLYNN
- Yeah- I don't know what Turkey expects. I don't know what Russia expects. I know what the- contributing nations of the world expect is that those that are contributing to the greater good of stability, security, prosperity...we have to figure out how to deal with this problem. And, I'm not one to look back, because I can give you all the...history going back many many...centuries, if you want, but we have created some of these problems, and I have that, I got that. And now we have to figure out how do we move forward. And in order for us to not move to a greater level of conflict between the great nations of the world, we have to come to grips with how do we work together, how do we take interests...interests that are converging...so we have a whole set of converging interests, that we are seeing right now. And unless we understand it, we're going to make mistakes. We're going to make tactical mistakes. That are going to lead to strategic consequences. And...for someone like myself, if I have any...anything to say about it, or anybody wants to listen to me, I'm trying to help us understand that what it is we are facing, as we move to a place where we can understand what those mutual interests are. The last panel talking about frenemies [video of this panel is on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr16p-5KPSg ], I mean, this is, as we all know, not about friendship. This is about mutual interest to achieve some sense of stability.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Okay. Let's talk about mutual interests. From what I understand, we all want ISIS down, right? That is our biggest interest. This is a common threat we're facing, a generation long fight against fundamental Islam. So: Turkish links to ISIS and to the oil trade, with the terror group, have been known, and have been a concern way before this whole thing happened with Russia. So, my question is: could we really expect Turkey, who is somewhat of an ally, to fight against ISIS when it profits from it?
- FLYNN
- Yeah, I think there's a lot of people profiting from ISIS. ISIS is a- number one...number one, we have to collectively, together, we have to clearly define the enemy we are facing. If we have to clearly define this enemy. This is a cancerous form, inside the Islamic religion, and we- people tend to use the phrase "radical Islamists", and I think that that's a good definition. I heard one word, an Arabic word, "faesh", which means beyond despicable. And I think that that's even a better word than what we see this other phrase [sic], "daesh". This is an enemy that emanated from this region, Middle East, and it is now geographically dispersed. Geographically dispersed, here in Russia, it's geographically dispersed in Europe...certainly in the United States, we have seen all these various attacks just recently, I mean Russia's had its own issues in 2002, in Moscow, at the theater. In 2004... in North Ossetia, where they- [sic, reference to the Beslan school siege] This same ideology killed children. I mean, what this attack in California, recently, was against a social services organization. I mean, it's just unbelievable. So-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- President Obama seems to think that he's containing ISIS.
- FLYNN
- Yeah, I know he said that, and I disagree with that. I definitely disagree with that. I think that, uh, I disagree with the context of how we have said our strategy is working or not working. I do believe the United States must step up and do a greater leadership role. One of the big issues, Sophie, and I think that this is important, for this audience...that, a year ago, before Russia decided, before President Putin decided to take the step that he took into Syria, that the situation was fundamentally different. And there was potential there, with some of us, who were really pushing our administration to do more. Not just militarily, but change the entire economic system that exists in the Middle East. And uh, I can talk to that...if you'd like. But when, when suddenly Russia shows up, so, the stadium...the stadium, if you will, the football stadium if you will, of the Middle East, Russia put themselves on the field. And that fundamentally changed the dynamics of this very geo-strategic game we are in right now. And it is not a game. It is very real.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Do you think that has something to do with the Russian plane being shot down?
- FLYNN
- I absolutely do. [SHEVARDNADZE says something inaudible in cross talk] I absolutely do. The thing that I think, tactically, you have to remember, is that, this is an enemy that does not have, you know, jets, and drones, and missiles, and all these ships...this is an enemy that gets attacked, by bombs...from the sky...so, drones, or jets, uh, artillery, and how do they counterattack? They show up [in] downtown Paris. They show up in downtown Moscow. They show up in someplace called San Bernadino. That's how they counterattack. So, when we think about warfare, and we think about the battlefield...this is not just toe to toe, in a place called Raqqaa, or in a place called Mosul, or in...Fallujah, in Iraq and Syria...this is a global contest and the way that this enemy has decided to retaliate, is they are retaliating by instilling fear, because this is a terror force. This is not a thug force, this is not a cult. This is not a criminal organization. This is a...terrorist organization, based on a very radical form of Islamism.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But...General, okay, the problem is that, um, some may think they're smarter than all of us together, because, for some reason, we can't get an anti-ISIS front up and running.
- FLYNN
- No...
- SHEVARDNADZE
- This latest incident with a Russian plane being shot down. Really hampered the efforts. Because Russia and France obviously want a grand coalition, and America is saying, no, everyone join the coalition that we're leading...is anybody going to budge? Are we ever going to come together and fight it?
- FLYNN
- Yeah, I mean- So...let's get, let's get real. Um...there's a phrase that I love, and it's, uh, it's "Truth fears no questions." And one of the things that I think we have to do, we have to be, just _brutally_, brutally honest with ourselves...about this, sortof political correctness, of how we are calling uh, a sortof, a religion out. Calling a segment, a large segment of society out. I mean, the Arab community, the Muslim world, the leaders in the Muslim world, the leading imams, and the leading clerics, in the Muslim world, must call this enemy out the way that they know-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- They have. I don't think it's working.
- FLYNN
- They have not in the way they need to. So...that's a part of it, Sophie. The other part of it is that, we have to look at each other, so that when we look at the United States, we look at Europe, we look at Russia, and the Russian Federation, and we examine, uh, this math problem that we are facing. And this math problem that we are facing is a demographic shift in the world. That's happening. And it's been happening since about the end of, end of World War II. Since about 1950. And this demographic shift between that period, 1950, and the middle of this century, is going to cause the population of the planet to multiply by _five times_. By five times. And when you begin to look at where that demographic shift is going to occur, it's in places like North Africa. It's in places like Central Asia. It's in places like the Middle East. It's in places like South Asia and Southeast Asia. We have to begin to understand this is not a- This is not an East-West world, folks. This is not an East-West world. That's actually more of a North-South world. So, if you want to be very very...geo-strategic, this world has shifted in roughly fifty years, probably seventy, and definitely over a hundred...into a much more North-South world. And we have to...decide...United States, you know, Europe, Russia. And others. Other countries, other countries in South America, maybe. And even China. And India. How do we want the world to be...over the course of the next...ten years, twenty five years, fifty years. I mean, this is not about...and don't believe for a second that we're going to defeat the Islamic State...in two years. [pause] This has been described as a "hundred year war." Now, I don't...I can't see that far. I can't think that far. But I can, I can certainly think further than the next four years...in a presidential election, in the United States.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But...you know, we are starting to do it right now. And you're talking about honest brutality, I've gotta ask you, because I know you know about this much more than I do...okay, I want specifics. I know that America is right now backing Turkey, after they shot down...the plane, and they're saying "Oh, it's okay, the oil trade with ISIS and Turkey is insignificant," I know that America is backing Qatar, and I know America is backing one of the biggest Salafist nations in the world, and, in my mind, one of the most backward regimes in the world, Saudi Arabia. They're [the Saudis] arming the exremist rebels in Syria. I know that America is actually financing the Kurds, which is a good thing in Syria, but how come the same Kurds are being bombed by America's biggest ally, Turkey? I mean, unless we sort these things out, or get some answers, why is this happening, how can we all fight ISIS together?
- FLYNN
- Yeah...and, and...this is where, it's a great question. For those who are paying very close attention, Sophie, in thirty seconds just described the incredible complexity of this environment that we are in. So, I'm not going to sit here and tell you that...that I have my finger on the pulse of every single...issue or action. Because my, my pushback, would be...and is said in the West, well, Russia, is backing Assad, a minority [the Alawites] in a country that should have, you know, free and fair elections, or backing Iran, who is running at least four proxy wars in the Middle East right now, that've fuels [sic] this sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni. And both Shia and Sunni have radical Islamist, cancerous components...inside of them. So...what we have to do is, we have to step back, we're going to have to step back from this thing...instead of diving in with tactical capabilities and...and trying to think that we're going to solve this by...killing more people, I mean, sadly, the...for all the people that want peace, peace is a...peace is not the normal state if you look at world history. And that doesn't mean I believe in warfare, I just know that...that, in order to, to uh, to, the best defense...to have, is really, is a function of being able to...demonstrate that. And I think we're going to have to demonstrate more of our military capabilities for a period, but what we really have to do is step back and say, okay, how do we want this region to be? Because it's not just two countries, it's not just Syria and Iraq. It's not just Lebanon and Jordan, and the Saudis, it's much greater than that, this stretches over to West Africa, it stretches over- We know the Islamic State now exists in- they have a component in India. They have a component in Burma. They have a component in Afghanistan, and we have already seen threats inside the Russian Federation, we have seen direct and very active threats inside of Europe, and we just had one in the United States. So, it's an idea that came from far, this ideology came from afar, but now it is actually being homegrown. So we are going to have to step back...the great _nations_, and one of the gentlemen up here talked about the United Nations. You know, the P5 plus one that just negotiated this, what I believe is a terrible nuclear deal with Iran, it's absolutely terrible...that conversation with those great powers, should have been something totally different. And in fact, we, I believe, those nations, failed, and probably through a combination of, of, you know, trying to feel each other out, and figure out which way to go, we should have made the conversation much broader.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But uh, I'm talking about...double standards, while we're fighting ISIS, okay? And don't get me wrong, the reason why I'm asking...you, what does the American government think, is because you are a representative of that country, and you know so much more about it than any of us here. I do ask the same questions to my government here, but I just want to hear answers from you, because I think it would be more coherent than [FLYNN: Yeah.] the conclusions that we draw. So, double standard, meaning...uh, what I just cited. How can you fight ISIS...
- FLYNN
- Right.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- ...if you're backing people who are arming them [reference to Saudi Arabia and Turkey]. Double standard, meaning..._ignoring_ your warnings, when you were back in office, in 2012, about the rise of ISIS. And maybe...even, you know, thinking that it's a willful decision to ignore...[FLYNN: Yeah.] your warnings over the rise of ISIS. Is this not double standards [sic]?
- FLYNN
- I- I don't know if it's a double standard, I think it's a- I think it's not smart.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Why were your warnings ignored?
- FLYNN
- Well- Why, because, as I've said very, very publicly, I mean, it's a narrative, that- our political system...at the time, it didn't fit, it did not fit...a narrative for the election. For the national elections. So: I mean, I- I- I have said, you know, let's be very honest with ourselves here, particularly in the-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- So, the war on terror is just like, a sidekick [sic - most likely, she means sideshow] that's used for the elections? When you guys vote?
- FLYNN
- It's more than that. I mean, it's more than that. This is- This is a...this is trying to- transcend...so, and again, we're here...in Moscow, having this conversation, and...I'm trying to, I'm trying to find ways, when people ask me, "What is it that you want?" What do I want? I want stability in the Middle East, for, essentially, in the Arab World, roughly, in the Arab World only, there's roughly 450 million people, I think, roughly, 450 million people in the Arab World...so, they're not stable. Fifty million of those, are out of jobs. And it's like water, it sorta, you know, flows to the least resistant path. And so those, many of those, people that don't have jobs, are young men. And those young men will go elsewhere. So...this back and forth, and I do appreciate it, and I respect it...because we have to have this debate. We absolutely have to have this debate. And we have to have it _now_. And we can't...uh, we can't, the United States, and I'm speaking, really, as a private citizen, but the United States can't sit there and go, "Russia, you're bad," and Russia can't sit there, "U.S., you're bad." What we have to do, like we have done in the past, and I could go into a couple of historical examples, where, you know, Europe would not be the Europe that it is today, thriving, had it none been for, uh, Russia, and the United States, working together, seventy five years ago. And in other places, where we have worked together. So...so, this idea of us not being able to work together is a misnomer. And I think that we have to, uh, we have to step back, and we have to say, "OK. What are the common interests, and what are the common goals that we want to achieve?" And those goals, I believe, the number one goal...is to eliminate this cancerous idea that exists inside the Islamic religion. We must do that. And the Arab World, Arab leaders, have a big responsibility, both Shia and Sunni. A huge responsibility. And I think the second common goal, is to then achieve some level of stability in the Middle East...that creates a new set of economic conditions, to deal with these, deal with these, frankly, with these, fifteen to thirty year old young men that exist.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But...I agree with you. But we're talking in general terms right now.
- FLYNN
- Yeah.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- How do we get down to it? How does America trust Russia, if it doesn't even trust the intelligence data collected by [Russian] intelligence services?
- FLYNN
- Stop being like two bullies in the playground. Quit acting immature. Quit acting...quit acting immature with each other. [pause] And know that I have, that I have disagreement with you. You have a disagreement with me. I mean, you know, this is a funny marriage...between Russia and the United States. But it's a marriage! It's a marriage, whether we like it or not. And...that marriage is very, very rocky right now.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- It's going up and down.
- FLYNN
- And what we don't need, we don't need that marriage to break up. We've had our break-ups in the past. But we need to...we need to look at this, not- I'm deadly serious abou this. Because: I know this enemy. I mean, I know this enemy. And I think there's some in this country that know this enemy from having dealt with it...in, you know, Chechnya, and Dagestan, and other places. This is a very, very deadly enemy we are facing. And it's not just hundreds or thousands.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- But I need some-
- FLYNN
- The numbers are much bigger than that.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- -concrete things from you. Let's do some marriage counseling here. So...Obama has said "The strategy we're pursuing is the right one in Syria."
- FLYNN
- Yeah.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- What is it? What is his strategy in Syria? I need to understand that, for us to figure out how our marriage is going. [laughs]
- FLYNN
- That's very- It's very, It's very, uh, I think it's very...one dimensional. I think it's very one dimensional. I think it's more...turning to our military, and kinda giving it to our military, and saying to our military, you solve it. More special forces, you know, more...uh, air, uh, those kinds of things. It's very one dimensional. We talk a bigger game of, uh, you know, financial, and diplomacy, and you see the various meetings that are going on around the world. But I think the pressure...there has to be a different set of pressure. Or pressures, plural. Pressures, or pressure being applied to...equally, to places like Iran, and Saudi Arabia. As examples. Because we cannot have, this, this war that's going on, this civil war that's going on-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- When you say pressure on Saudi Arabia, I mean, from Iran, I understand, you mean, Russia should pressure. But what do you expect America to do in terms of pressuring Saudi Arabia?
- FLYNN
- So- I will- Yeah- I'll tell you, the- the- funding...that comes out of the region...so one, one...
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Out of Saudi Arabia and Qatar? Right?
- FLYNN
- The whole region! The whole region. Principally those countries...but the, like, Arab leaders have said to me...gimme the name of somebody, and we'll go deal with them. So we have to be really really...we have to be very precise when we say, the Saudis are funding, or the Qataris are funding...you know, and we also have to be the same with Iran. Because Iran cannot continue to go the way it's going, and we can't keep backing them, because you're going to have this...this sectarian civil war, which is just another complexity of this problem...otherwise it's going to lead to...to the nations that we're now talking about, really Russia and the United States...to actually become more tense with each other. And we don't want that. What we want, we actually want to work together to figure out how do we separate the warring parties...how do we do it...diplomatically. We can have, uh, you know negotiations at a peace- some sort of big table, some big old table. In Brussels, or wherever. That's not going to eliminate the enemy. To eliminate this enemy is going to take, partly it's going to take, as President El-Sisi of Egypt has called for...some type of Reformation of the Islamic religion. That has to happen. And it has to be in both components, both Shia and Sunni. It _has_ to occur. We cannot have...the Salafists and the Wahabbists...group, strangle, or chokehold...the rest of what we call the "moderate" Muslim world. Which, there is a large contingent.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- General, tell me honestly, would we even be here, talking about the mess in the Middle East...if March of 2003 didn't happen, when countries like France, Germany, Russia, China did not back the invasion of Iraq?
- FLYNN
- Yeah-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- And then it just went, like a domino effect, you have Iraq, and you have Syria...Yemen, you have Egypt, that's ruled by a general, still now. Would we even be in this mess right now?
- FLYNN
- Yeah...so, uh, that's a good question, and I think that's- I think, historically, I think historically that decision, obviously, is a huge strategic error. And history will not be kind to that decision. And- But I don't believe that that was...the one thing that caused everything that we're facing. I mean-
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Was it the catalyst, though?
- FLYNN
- I mean, we can go way back, to some, you know, last thirty years, forty years even, some writings, of different individuals, that are in the...that are fueling this, I mean, to include Osama Bin Laden, you know, in the nineties, post-air operations against Russia in Afghanistan, there's been some very very, uh, interesting things that they have said, all prior to that. Now: that particular decision, to go into Iraq, instead of continuing to deal with, with really, what I call the wolf closest to the sled [sic - he must mean shed], which would have been, in Afghanistan, that won't- history will not be kind to those that made that decision.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- General, thank you so much for this wonderful talk, uh, let's give a round of applause to General. I think you want to show us a slide.
- FLYNN
- Yeah.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- And comment on that. We'd love to see that.
- FLYNN
- And I don't know if anybody has any questions.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Questions. From the audience.
- FLYNN
- Let me- Okay- I'll show you a slide at the end. Go ahead. Please.
- [no one specific is picked, and RAY MCGOVERN gets up in the middle of the room]
- RAY MCGOVERN
- General, would you be kind enough to comment on the incident...outside Damascus. On the 21st of August, 2013. Our Secretary of State immediately blamed it on the Syrian government...and yet, lots of reports suggested, actually, the Turkish intelligence services were largely responsible for that, partly because the sarin-
- FLYNN
- You'll have to describe the incident, because-
- MCGOVERN
- Well, this is the incident around Ghouta-
- FLYNN
- I've got a lot of things in my head, but that's not one of them right now.
- MCGOVERN
- No problem. This is the incident around Ghouta? Just outside of Damascus, where there were sarin attacks, which turned out to be...sarin, not in Syrian government stocks, but rather, homemade sarin. And the reports thereafter indicated that Turkish intelligence may have been involved, and the whole purpose was a false flag attack to get Obama to attack Syria overtly with warplanes and missiles...and that it almost succeeded. Can you enlighten us as to how you read, or how your agency read that incident?
- FLYNN
- You know, I- the context of it, the specifics of it...when I'm asked, what keeps me up at night...what keeps me up at night are...members of this Islamic State, whatever you want to call it...[MCGOVERN says something inaudible] I know, I know, but I'm gonna address your question, because it's a good question to...it's an interesting one. But what keeps me up at night, is the use of chemicals and biological weapons by terrorist groups that have the intent, they have the intellect, they don't necessarily have the specific types of capabilities just yet, but they, I believe, they will have the ability to get their hands on them...and I think that all of us, globally, need to really pay very close attention to that. Your specific question, you know, I really don't know. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I know. And to have that level of knowledge or insight or detail of what an intelligence service is doing, to do a false flag, you know, who knows? So I, I don't have a good answer for you. I'm not able to answer your specific question. What I know is that the complexity of the situation on the ground right now, is...beyond, beyond anybody's wildest imagination. And...Sophie highlighted it, in one of her questions, and I think, her question was a very good one, it's...all of the things that are happening, not just in Syria, this is happening...in the region...in a big way, and it's also what- the things that you're talking about, there's this, there's this tit for tat, or, there's this give and take, and people are doing things, people are- there is deception being used, false information being used. You know, this slide that I have up here, is a component of that. False information, or how false information is applied. So, we have to understand, this is why I think...Sophie's driving me...crazy, up here, trying to get me, to, you know, be more specific. Because right now, we do have to be more specific. We have to be much more specific about our relationships. [pause] Far more specific in our relationships. And so there's not a misunderstanding, and there's not a miscalculation, because of some...ill advised...tactic, that's used, in Damascus, or Baghdad. That causes...something that we don't, uh, don't want.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- We have time for two more questions. So, you take your pick.
- FLYNN
- Okay...let me go on this side. This gentleman over here, maybe, huh? Yeah.
- PATRICK LAWRENCE
- My name's Patrick Lawrence, I write a Foreign Affairs column for Salon. I want to stay with your remark, "We must define the enemy." I have a lot of difficulty understanding, and maybe this difficulty is shared by people in this room. Why the Obama administration remained so preoccupied with the removal of President Assad...uh, that's not a good definition of the enemy we've been discussing this morning. It shares this, I'd say it's a near obsession, with the Turkish government. Second part of my question, when you were talking to Sophie, you described the Russian position as supporting the government, supporting the Assad government. That's not my understanding of the Russian position. The Russian position wants to leave the national administration intact, and let Syrians decide on their future. That's rather different. I wonder if you buy into that distinction, or...you appear to reject that distinction.
- FLYNN
- Yeah, I think that I reject that. I reject it. You know, Assad is part of the problem. I mean, let's face it, c'mon...Assad is part of the problem. So...now. [pause] Is Assad a stabilizing factor right- inside the region? Inside Syria right now? Is Assad the future of Syria, given the way the situation has unfolded? And frankly, as I have said, frankly, as I have said...as I have said, the Middle East, a new Middle East, is being born right now. In front of our faces. We are going to have to decide...what is that thing going to look like, as we go forward here. It is...we kinda, if we look at the efforts in the Balkans, where...I actually had a chance to visit the Russian forces in Kosovo. And to me, we are probably moving to a place where we're going to have to balkanize the Middle East. Because it's not going to return to a level of stability, never mind security. Assad- There has to be an international decision about Assad. And I think that, I think that...I think that...I don't know, I'm speculating, that the Russian position is to stabilize the situation. Bring some security to the situation. In Syria. It's not necessarily to save one man. Because if this entire thing revolves around the saving of one guy, we have a major problem. Major problem. And we have to be, you know, we have to be, respect each other's...national security...strategy. I think, from a U.S. perspective, we have to understand that Russia has a national security strategy. And it doesn't always align with what the United States national security strategy is. But what we have to do is ways that we can align the two strategies. And if it's based on one guy, then...and that's a hard line that we stand on...that's a difficult line to stand on. And I'm not sure that either nation believes that.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- One more question.
- FLYNN
- Maybe back over here. Way back, way in the back.
- UNKNOWN WOMAN
- Every time Sophie asked you about Saudi Arabia, you kept on mentioning Iran, and saying that- How many Shia- Sunn- Shia attacked us on 9/11? Or how many Shia attacked us on the 7/7 bus bombings in London? How many Shia were involved in the Paris attacks? Why is- There seems to be a dishonesty about how we treat the whole region, is that we keep on saying, "Oh, it's the Iranians, causing ISIS, causing Libya, causing the disaster in Syria." It seems like...yes, there are obviously...in Iraq, there are Shia versus Sunni, but that, I think is partly our involvement in attacking Iraq, but...why do we keep trying to blame Iran, for what Saudi Arabia is-
- FLYNN
- I'm not blaming Iran for what Saudi Arabia is doing...I think that Iran has to, and the international community have to come to grips with what Iran is doing in the region. But specifically on the Saudi...if the [audio goes in and out - most like "emirate"] does not get very, very specific with the challenges that it has, in certain components inside of its country, meaning funding, fueling, uh, you know, the right kinds of information, the right kinds of backing, in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it could collapse in and of itself. I mean, the largest- If you look at a- If you look at the population of Saudi Arabia, it's a relatively small population. And the most, the thickest component, inside Saudi Arabia, is a bunch of young men, I mean, it's a bunch of young men, the average age is roughly twenty five years old. Like fifteen to about thirty five, roughly twenty five years old. If they do not figure out how to create new _systems_, economic systems for them, this is where we all have to come, uh, to work together. We have to help them.
- UNKNOWN WOMAN
- Yeah, but what about the- What about the-
- FLYNN
- -no longer based on the-
- UNKNOWN WOMAN
- -madrasses that they financed in Pakistan. They're the ones that seem to be exporting this ideology. Of ISIS. In Pakistan. In regions around the Middle East. I don't see how Iran is equated to Saudi Arabia, on that specific arena of terrorism.
- FLYNN
- Iran exports a lot of terror.
- UNKNOWN WOMAN
- Which attack? Were they behind 9/11?
- FLYNN
- No, we don't have enough time here, but like I said, truth fears no questions, and I believe that. We cannot sit here, and say, things that aren't...true. We have to be very honest. I mean, the- Why am I here? I'm here because I'm- I'm sorta in the lair. But I believe so much in our- the opportunity that we have, we can stop playing against each other, like two immature children, in a playground. And we have to step way back, and start to think very geopolitically, and how do we want the world to be, as we go forward. I know that that's strategic, and not specific to your, to your question, but this is not a simple thing. We are not facing a simple problem. We are facing an incredibly complex problem, that won't be solved by dropping another bomb on another, you know, terrorist on the ground. It has to be- The entire economic system of the Middle East has to change. And when I say the Middle East, that's actually the trans region. That stretches from Morocco to maybe as far as the Southeast Asia.
- UNKNOWN WOMAN
- [inaudible] -to continue...my observation is that we are distracted by spending so much attention on something that's not the problem. Iran doesn't seem to be the problem. It seems to be Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest problem, in the Middle East.
- FLYNN
- I respect your opinion. [pause] I'm gonna make sure I watch my time.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Do you want to comment on your slide?
- FLYNN
- Yeah, because this is interesting. You know...this is all...today, it's about information. And I love it. Because...the media is such an important component in this digital information age that we are in...and so, what we have here, and I don't know, you can't read it, I'll read it real quickly, so it's called, "Under the Radar: The Islamic State issues regular technology tutorials intended to keep followers' communications out of reach of government surveillance. This guide...", below, what you're looking at, circulated in January of 2015, this year, "...ranks...", _ranks_, "...the encryption of chat applications," that the Islamic State, this segment of the Islamic religion, uses. And on the lefthand side, it shows safest, then goes safe, then moderately safe, then unsafe. And, so what I would just finish by saying, Sophie, and thank you so much for...and Russian television for allowing me to have a little bit of a platform...I really, really appreciate it. This is like...the Islamic State sees this as another province. They see the information domain as a piece of geography. And they use it very, very wisely. So...and I jokingly say sometimes, that _we_, we the United States with the coalition in 2006, and 2009, we were losing to guys in shower shoes and bathrobes. Because we misunderstood this enemy. We misunderstood this enemy. This is modernity...this is modernity in its highest form, by- by- something that we see as a very unsophisticated thing. This enemy. They are not. Very sophisticated. And I think that in order for us to defeat this problem...and these are millions and millions of followers, twenty thousand, over twenty thousand websites. A magazine, _Dabiq_...they have five of them, but they have..._Dabiq_ is in its tenth year of production. Just like Russia Television. [pause] So...you look at the number of readers that they have. So...I- I just- my wish...my wish and my hope is that...that we figure out a way strategically to work together. I think that that's the way ahead. Whether or not we work together twenty years from now...I don't know. But I know if we don't work together right now, that the potential for going to a larger conflict against each other, or the potential for this enemy, to do far more damage than they already have, is very, very real. So, with that, I- really again, thank you very much, Sophie.
- SHEVARDNADZE
- Thank you. Thank you, General. [crowd applause]
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