WWI Joffre ATL

Elsepth03/03/2018
I've got a workable timeline, I think

>25 July, Austria breaks off diplomatic relations with Serbia
>28 July, Austria declares war on Serbia, having partially mobilised. Churchill orders the Grand Fleet to assemble at Scapa Flow.
>29 July, afternoon - Nicholas orders general mobilisation
>29 July, midnight - Nicholas rescinds and reorders a partial mobilisation against Austria
>30 July, morning - Nicholas reorders general mobilisation.
>31 July - Russia begins a general mobilisation. Germany issues 12-hour ultimatum of demobilisation. Hotzendorff(Austria) orders general mobilisation.
>19:00, 31 July - German ambassador requests confirmation or denial of neutrality from France. Messimy authorises Joffre to notify the French Army of imminent mobilisation.
>morning, 1 August - Joffre pressures Viviani to order general mobilisation.
>1300, 1 August - Viviani declares France will "defend her interests"
>1530, 1 August - Messimy signs the order for general mobilisation
>1700, 1 August - Wilhelm orders general mobilisation and declares war on Russia. Lichnowsky then reports that England intends neutrality if Germany does not invade France. Wilhelm recalls Moltke to order a one-front war against Russia. Moltke refuses. Wilhelm goes over him and demands that whoever can do it does it; von Staab, chief of the railway division, begins to turn the mobilisation around - presumably a slow and moderately chaotic process.
>England mobilises the Grand Fleet in response to Germany declaring war on Russia.
>Wilhelm issues absolute orders not to attack on the western front regardless of deployment, and notifies King George accordingly. Moltke weeps as the Kaiser manages to halt the German Army at Trier, right at the Luxembourg border.(edited)
>2 August - Belgium recieves a ultimatum from Germany demanding military access, the Kaiser having been too late in rescinding it.
>2 August - Germany opens negotiations with France regarding securing French neutrality in exchange of the autonomy of Alsace. France considers this to be entirely inadequate; mobilisation continues.
>3 August, morning - Belgium delivers its refusal of military access to Germany to an apologetic ambassador.
>4 August - Negotiations between France and Germany continue to founder over mutually unacceptable demands.
>5 August - Joffre orders VII Corps to prepare to attack on 7 August, south of Metz, in preparation for a general offensive.
>6 August, midday - France ends negotiations and declares war on Germany in response to Germany's declaration of war on Russia.
>7-8 August - Fr.VII Corps under Bonneau advances in the south and takes Mulhouse.
>9-10 August - De.XIV and XV Corps push VII Corps back.
>Bonneau is dismissed and relpaced. Joffre forms the Army of Alsace with eight divisions under Pau.
>14 August - in synchonisation with Russia, the French Army begins its first major offensive into Alsace-Lorraine with First and Second Armies, Joffre still expecting a German invasion through Belgium and lying in wait with Third through Fifth Armies.
>14-18 August - Army of the Rhine pushes XIV and XV Corps back to the Rhine in disarray.
>14-19 August - Fr. First Army advances towards the Vosges and Sarrebourg, opposed by remaining elements of 7th Army. 7th Army retreats to Strasbourg in good order. Fr. Second army advances four corps to cover First Army, opposed by 6th Army with three corps. 6th Army retreats to Saint-Avold.
>23-24 August - Army of Alsace attempts the Rhine crossing and is repulsed with heavy losses
>20-28 August - Fr. Second Army wheels north in bloody advance. G. Sixth Army, outnumbered, retreats across the Saar. Joffre commits three reserve divisions of Third Army to cover Second Army's left flank from Metz.
>29-31 August - Second Army attempts the Saar crossing and is brutally repelled by fresh units of Fourth Army.
>1-7 September - German counterattack begins, the famed "Schlieffen Offensive" of later legend. Most of G.First and Second Armies, redeployed by rail to Strasbourg, smash upwards between the Saar and Meurthe rivers, shattering Fr.First Army and driving it back to the border, and trapping Fr.Second Army in a cauldron between G. First Army, Sixth Army, Fourth Army, Fifth Army, the Metz Fortress, and the Meurthe and Saar rivers.
>2-7th September - Joffre reacts quickly to pull back the offense and reinforce the right, but still keeps the bulk of Fourth and Fifth Army in reserve to counter "missing" German corps to the north; G. Fifth Army conducts spoiling attacks at every opportunity to impede Fr. Third Army moving to suppport Second Army.
>8-9th September - A frontal attack by Third Army to break through the encirclement and relieve Second Army fails in sight of its objective, repulsed by a furious defense and counterattack by G. 5th Army.
>9th September - Luxembourg refuses to allow French Second Army to retreat through her territory.
>10th September - Joffre is forced to contemplate seriously the French invasion of Belgium and Luxembourg in order to relieve Second Army.
The only way I can think of to force Joffre's hand is to threaten the complete annihilation of an entire Army, in accordance with Vernichtungsstrategie and Schlieffen's writings(edited)
It is necessary for France to infringe upon Belgian sovereignity - if only a little - in order to move 5th and 4th Army into the Sedan railhead through Luxembourg to deploy fast enough to save 2th Army before it runs out of supplies and is forced to surrender en masse
That very act gives Germany the moral authority to move troops into Belgium as an nominal ally - and strike through Belgium into France herself, so it must be necessary to also invade Belgium outright and meet the Germany army with the full force of initiative. It is necessary at this juncture; the only alternative is the abandonment of three hundred thousand Frenchmen to the mercy of the German Army.
Bear in mind that at this point, the French Army is fighting entirely on German soil, has excellent morale despite heavy losses, and has only lost five actions out of dozens: The initial repulsing of VII Corps on 9 August, two failed river crossings on 23 and 29 August, which "don't count" since everyone knows forcing river crossings is diifficult under the best of circumstances, overstretched elements of First Army being shattered in a glorious delaying action by the full force of two German Armies, and finally the failure of Third Army to break through G. Fifth Army to relieve the encirclement of Second Army.
As far as France is concerned, it has suffered only one real defeat so far and has been victorious everywhere else, and belief in the superiority of French elan is still strong - never mind that in fact their opponents have been severely understrength up until now
The German General Staff, of course, have completely lost control of the situation; in actual fact the effective German High Command now consists of von Staab, his railway logistics staff, and the Kaiser himself to back him up.
Joffre only really makes one mistake after the start of hostilities - he believes too hard and too long - not unreasonably, mind - in the German attack through Belgium, and it costs him heavily.(edited)
Truly, a war of logisticians
Over the course of August, the battle strength of the German Army on the Western Front doubles from two dozen divisions to over four dozen.
However, in the process of massing forces for the decisive strike against the French Second Army, the German Army has weakened the right too far, and the French Fourth Army turns them aside in three days and thrusts along the Meuse into Germany. But the damage is done; late in September the B.E.F. comes ashore at Zeebrugge.(edited)

The stage is set - for the Race to the Sea and the battles of Flanders.
Also, possibly the most awful heavy-artillery bombardment the world will ever see.
>entire section of front line utterly annihilated by bombardment from fifty battleships

@CaptainCoxwaggle I spent my Friday working out the first month of your Great War; I hope you're happy xD
though I might well use this myself too

@Scootia23 What do you think?
Scootia23  03/03/2018
Well the first thing I think is holy shit that wall of text could secure the Mexican border
Elsepth    03/03/2018
it might not be obvious but France has a 3:1 numerical superiority in the first two weeks rather than like 6:7
that's why their frontal infantry charges work
initial hopes of a neutral France and one front war fucked up their deployment
basically Willy fucks up diplomacy again but this time it goes so wrong it wraps around and ends up being really good for Germany