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- Effort-post: How can the US prevent China from becoming a superpower? It’s quite easy actually. Just keep doing what the USA is now doing. It all comes down to the size of the economy. It is all but impossible to compete with an economy twice your size. The USA needs to keep it’s economy at 4% growth and needs to help China get below 3%. And this can be done.
- The USA beat the USSR because the USSR couldn’t afford to keep up. The USA can do the same with China.
- The USA policy, to ‘constrain’ China, needs to do the following:
- • ** Make the USA economy stronger**
- ReIndustrialize by bringing work back to the USA
- -Create an unassailable military
- -Create core economic independence across all key areas like energy, materials, etc.
- -Constrain social welfare payments to fund defense and R&D
- • ** Create a network of exclusive economic partners**
- Create one on one trade relationships that exclude China
- -Create defense treaties that reinforce trade and exclude China
- Create trade dependencies with partners
- Create international institutions that tend to exclude China and its partners.
- • ** Make the Chinese economy weaker and unstable**
- -Constrain Chinese exports to USA and USA partner countries
- -Constrain external Chinese debt issuance
- -Constrain Chinese use of USA IP domestically and in export
- -“Flood” USA exports of to offset China tech exports
- • ** Make the Chinese military much bigger (and a drag on the Chinese economy)**
- Support countries on the Chinese border protect their interests to force more spending and a larger army
- -Promote and demonstrate expensive USA defense programs like Aircraft carriers, Nuclear submarines, Ballistic missile defense, etc
- • ** Weaken Chinese partners**
- Exclude Chinese partners from western tech, organizations and products
- Exclude Chine partners from export programs (tariff reductions, access, etc).
- These and other actions would slow the rate of Chinese economic growth. Slower growth will cause stress on the Chinese banking and core economic system. There will be an economic crash. NO emerging economy has ever avoided boom and bust cycles and China is no different. If export trade is removed as the safety valve, the Chines economy will contract and the internal disruption will consume Chinese government attention. If the Chinese economy slows to a 2–3% annual growth rate, China never becomes number 1.
- This same program could lead to a USA economy growing at 4%+.
- A 2.5% China grows to be around $20 Trillion in 20 years (from 2017 $12.24). The USA 4% economy grows to over $40 Trillion in 20 years from today's $19+.
- The larger economy wins and eventually the smaller economy collapses from economic exhaustion. It’s not a new plan. It has worked. The current Russian economy is just 10% of the USA.
- https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/
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