theunpromisedone3

Trapwire Stratfor Email 52 (Deep Web)

Aug 13th, 2012
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  1. Re: [CT] HZ Model
  2.  
  3. Released on 2012-08-12 08:00 GMT
  4. Email-ID 1585896
  5. Date 2010-09-22 17:04:37
  6. From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
  7. To ct@stratfor.com
  8. very interesting.
  9.  
  10. Fred Burton wrote:
  11.  
  12. I don't buy the 90%. Lean more towards 60-70%. I've seen outstanding
  13. HUMINT coverages which run 180 degrees from OS, combined with SIGINT.
  14.  
  15. The other aspect is the Dark Web data mining streams now combined
  16. w/surveillance logs AND technology like TrapWire. Neither of which very
  17. few people see.
  18.  
  19. The high public figures are disinformation to protect sources and
  20. methods (foreign liaison channels.)
  21.  
  22. The volumnes of granular data for example on Iran or Mexico today
  23. out-pace the OS.
  24.  
  25.  
  26. Aaron Colvin wrote:
  27.  
  28.  
  29. So, since [as I understand it] upwards of 90% of all real intel comes
  30. from OS, isn't it safe to say these non-gov guys without the TS/SCI info
  31. could come somewhere close to the answers?
  32.  
  33. On 9/22/10 9:48 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  34.  
  35.  
  36.  
  37. Agree
  38.  
  39. Having said that, studies like this are read now inside the CIA, NCTC,
  40. FBI. Back in the day, nobody read anything other than what each other
  41. wrote.
  42.  
  43. The challenge has always been that educational institutions and think
  44. tanks lack the access to very valuable feeds of information primarily in
  45. the SIGINT arena, so they lack 20-25% of the granular data.
  46.  
  47. For example, let's say the FBI is investigating HZ surveillances in
  48. CONUS, predicated upon an intercept that indicates the go order has been
  49. given. The think tank does not have access to either reporting stream.
  50.  
  51. Aaron Colvin wrote:
  52.  
  53.  
  54.  
  55. I like studies like this, but the real problem is that the focus is on
  56. deterministic domains of "perfect" information. It's like game-theoretic
  57. models that assume rationality. These are great to understand and read,
  58. but, IMHO, should not be fully adhered to.
  59.  
  60. On 9/22/10 9:29 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  61.  
  62.  
  63.  
  64.  
  65. Well worth the read.
  66.  
  67.  
  68.  
  69.  
  70.  
  71.  
  72.  
  73.  
  74.  
  75.  
  76.  
  77. --
  78.  
  79. Sean Noonan
  80.  
  81. Tactical Analyst
  82.  
  83. Office: +1 512-279-9479
  84.  
  85. Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
  86.  
  87. Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
  88.  
  89. www.stratfor.com
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